Premier League Matchday 23 Preview 2026: Title Race Heats Up

Introduction: The Stage Is Set for a Critical Round in 2026

The Ethiopian Premier League's 2025/26 campaign has reached a crucial juncture heading into Matchday 23. The title race is tightening, with Sidama Bunna maintaining their narrow lead over Awassa Kenema and Negelle Arsi. Meanwhile, the relegation zone is becoming congested, heightening pressure on mid-table teams fighting to secure safety.

Throughout the round, tactical battles will unfold, with teams adjusting formations to exploit weaknesses or protect leads. The political and sporting narratives intertwine—teams like Sidama Bunna aim to cement their dominance, while others scramble for precious points to avoid the drop. Our focus falls on how game styles will clash, which managers will innovate tactically, and where betting value lies—especially in matches where data suggests a different outcome than bookmaker odds.

Highlight 1: The Title Contenders Clash — Welwalo Adigrat Uni vs Sidama Bunna

This fixture is a classic case of contrasting styles. Sidama Bunna, unbeaten in their last five matches, boast a disciplined defensive record, having kept eight clean sheets in ten home games. Their typical approach centers on possession and quick transitions, with a notable tendency to score early—70% of their goals come in the first half.

Welwalo Adigrat Uni, on the other hand, have struggled away from home, winning only once in 11 trips, and have a propensity to receive red cards—four this season complicate their tactical discipline. Their attacking plan relies heavily on set-pieces and penalty conversions, having scored all three penalties awarded to them.

From a tactical perspective, Sidama Bunna could look to press high early, exploiting Welwalo’s disciplinary issues and aiming to score within the first 30 minutes. Welwalo may opt for a defensive setup, soaking pressure and hitting on the counter, especially targeting Sidama’s vulnerable flanks.

Our prediction favors a narrow victory for Sidama Bunna (45% confidence), with under 2.5 goals (58%) and a high likelihood of both teams scoring (58%). Given Welwalo’s susceptibility to red cards and Sidama’s early goal-scoring pattern, betting on Sidama to win and BTTS could offer value—especially if odds are favorable.

Highlight 2: Relegation Battle — Bahardar vs Negelle Arsi

This match is pivotal for both teams. Bahardar, with a poor scoring record—11 matches without a goal—has been resilient defensively, keeping 12 clean sheets. Negelle Arsi, fighting to consolidate their position, concede 36% of their goals after the 75th minute, hinting at fatigue or tactical lapses late in games.

Expect Bahardar to adopt a compact formation, aiming to frustrate Negelle Arsi and capitalize on counter-attacking opportunities, especially from set-pieces. Negelle Arsi will seek to break through early, perhaps emphasizing their penalties scored (all three this season) as potential match-winners.

Despite the low-scoring trend, our data suggests that both teams could struggle to find the net, with under 2.5 goals forecasted at 58% confidence, and a possible draw or Negelle Arsi win. Given Bahardar’s clean sheet record and Negelle’s late-goal conceding pattern, a bet on a draw or Negelle Arsi outright could be considered if odds are aligned.

Other Key Fixtures in Brief

• Mebrat Hayl vs Ethiopia Bunna: Ethiopia Bunna's away form is shaky—losing six of ten, but their offensive xG suggests they can score if they break into Mebrat Hayl’s solid home defense, which has kept 8 clean sheets in 11 matches. Our prediction favors Ethiopia Bunna winning (45%), with under 2.5 goals likely, and no BTTS due to Mebrat’s scoring drought.
• Welayta Dicha vs Sidama Bunna: Sidama’s recent unbeaten streak and their defensive solidity at home make them favorites. Welayta Dicha’s poor away record suggests limited resistance; expect Sidama Bunna to control possession and rack up a clean sheet, with a predicted 2-0 scoreline and BTTS yes (61%).
• Bahardar vs Negelle Arsi: As highlighted, this match offers under 2.5 goals and a potential draw or away win. The tactical focus will be on Negelle’s ability to exploit Bahardar’s scoring drought and defensive gaps late in games.
• Suhul Shire vs Fasil Ketema: Fasil Ketema, despite recent struggles, possess a resilient defensive record—13 clean sheets. Suhul Shire’s offensive woes (failed to score in 11 matches) suggest a low-scoring, possibly goalless affair.
• Dire Dawa Kenema vs Ethiopia Nigd Bank: Dire Dawa Kenema’s unbeaten streak in the last four matches provides confidence. Ethiopia Nigd Bank’s lack of away goals and red cards hint at a narrow victory or draw—our prediction is a low-scoring match with a slight edge to Dire Dawa.
• Ethiopian Medhin vs Hadiya Hosaena: Both teams have struggled offensively—Medhin failing to score in over half their matches—and conceding early. Expect a cautious game with few goals (under 2.5) and possibly a Medhin win, based on their home clean sheets.
• Adama Kenema vs Arba Minch Kenema: Adama Kenema’s strong defensive record makes them favorites. Arba Minch’s scoring drought supports a bet on their being shut out; a low-scoring home win (1-0 or 2-0) seems probable.
• Awassa Kenema vs Mekelle Kenema: Both teams have offensive issues—Awassa scoring in last 6 but conceding in all 7—and Mekelle’s red cards suggest a tough game. Odds favor Awassa to edge this, with under 2.5 goals and no BTTS.

Betting Value and Divergences from Odds

Our predictions highlight certain value bets where bookmakers may underestimate certain outcomes:

• Sidama Bunna to win outright: Despite close odds, their home form and Welwalo’s disciplinary issues suggest better value than implied.
• Negelle Arsi to avoid defeat: Given low scoring and Bahardar's scoring drought, a draw or Negelle Arsi win offers value if odds favor it.
• Under 2.5 goals in key fixtures: Especially in matches involving teams with poor offensive records, such as Suhul Shire vs Fasil Ketema or Ethiopian Medhin vs Hadiya Hosaena.

Summary of Best Bets for Round 23

• Sidama Bunna to beat Welwalo Adigrat Uni — aligned with their strong home defensive record and Welwalo’s disciplinary struggles.
• Negelle Arsi to draw or win against Bahardar — considering Bahardar’s scoring drought and late concession issues.
• Under 2.5 goals in the Ethiopian Medhin vs Hadiya Hosaena — tactical, cautious game expected from both sides.
• Welayta Dicha vs Sidama Bunna under 2.5 goals — Sidama’s defensive discipline and Welayta’s offensive struggles support this.

Conclusion: Tactical Battles and Narrow Margins Define Round 23

As the 2026 Ethiopian Premier League approaches its final quarter, tactical acumen and disciplined defending will be decisive. The top contenders will seek to capitalize on their defensive strengths while exploiting opponents' vulnerabilities—especially in matches where discipline could be the difference. Bettors should pay close attention to the statistical trends, such as Sidama Bunna’s early goals and Bahardar’s clean sheets, to find value. With the title race tightening and relegation pressures mounting, this round promises strategic battles that could reshape the league’s final standings.