PeruPeru
Primera DivisiónPrimera División
Round 3

Alianza Atletico vs Alianza Lima Prediction & Betting Tips

15 Feb 2026
0-0
Full Time
Estadio Campeones del 36, Sullana
Incorrect
Our #1 Pick
Asian Handicap
Alianza Lima -0.25
@ 1.30
0 : 0
FT

Betting Tips

26%
27%
47%
Alianza AtleticoDrawAlianza Lima
Match Result
Alianza Lima
47%
Total Goals
Under 2.5
59%
Both Teams Score
No
54%
Double Chance
Draw/Away
38%
Asian Handicap
AH Away -0.25
@ 1.30
77%
Odds updated hourly from bookmakers
Predictions recalculated every 2 hours
Locked 2 hours before kickoff

Expert Analysis

David Coleman
David Coleman Senior Football Analyst
75% 20+ yrs
6 min read

When two Peruvian giants collide at Estadio Campeones del 36 in Sullana, the stakes go beyond just three points — it’s a battle between contrasting trajectories. Alianza Lima, buoyed by an impressive winning streak and clinical attacking form, arrives with confidence to confront an Alianza Atletico ...

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Key Statistics

Alianza Atletico4
4Draws
9Alianza Lima
2.06Avg Goals
29%BTTS
35%Over 2.5
15 Feb 2026Alianza Atletico0-0Alianza Lima
27 Jul 2025Alianza Lima1-1Alianza Atletico
15 Feb 2025Alianza Atletico3-1Alianza Lima
21 Jul 2024Alianza Lima2-0Alianza Atletico
4 Feb 2024Alianza Atletico0-2Alianza Lima
View all H2H matches

Full Match Analysis

David Coleman
David Coleman
Senior Football Analyst
75% Accuracy
20+ Years Experience
5.5k Predictions

Clash of Contrasts: Alianza Atletico Hosts Resilient Alianza Lima

When two Peruvian giants collide at Estadio Campeones del 36 in Sullana, the stakes go beyond just three points — it’s a battle between contrasting trajectories. Alianza Lima, buoyed by an impressive winning streak and clinical attacking form, arrives with confidence to confront an Alianza Atletico side desperate to turn their season around after a stuttering start. Recent head-to-heads, tactical nuances, and statistical insights reveal a game ripe with strategic intrigue and betting opportunities.

The Context: More Than Just a League Fixture

This fixture, often overlooked in the broader South American football landscape, packs significant emotional and tactical importance. For Alianza Lima, maintaining momentum is vital—they sit comfortably in third with six points from their first three matches, already showing their offensive potency with an average of 1.9 goals per game. Meanwhile, Alianza Atletico, languishing in eighth with just a single win, aims to leverage home advantage at the notoriously challenging Estadio Campeones del 36, seeking to halt their slide and gain ground in the standings.

Momentum and Form: A Tale of Two Trajectories

Alianza Atletico’s recent form tells a story of inconsistency and defensive fragility. Over their last five matches, they’ve registered just a single victory, coupled with four losses — including a recent 0-2 home defeat to Alianza Lima. Their attack struggles to find rhythm, averaging barely 0.6 goals per game, and their defense concedes an average of 1.6, with zero clean sheets in the last five outings.

In stark contrast, Alianza Lima’s form reads like a blueprint for a title contender. With four wins and a draw from their last five matches, their attacking output has been particularly impressive, with an average of 1.9 goals. Defensively, they’ve tightened up, conceding just 0.7 per game and securing clean sheets in half of those recent fixtures. Their resilience and ability to grind out results make them favorites heading into this fixture.

Tactical Setups: Formation and Strategy Insights

Alianza Atletico, operating with a 4-1-4-1 formation, likely prioritizes compactness and counter-attacks. Their lone defensive midfielder acts as a shield, trying to disrupt Lima’s build-up and launch quick transitions. However, their low goal output suggests they struggle to break down well-organized defenses, especially against opponents pressing high and exploiting space behind their defensive line.

Alianza Lima, deploying a 4-3-3, emphasizes fluid attacking movements and possession-based play. P. Guerrero and R. Garcés, the top scorers, thrive in wide areas, stretching opponents and creating space centrally. Their midfield trio aims to control the game, with disciplined transitions that allow quick counters. Their approach — aggressive yet solid — has made them a tough matchup for most teams, especially on the road where their defensive solidity remains intact.

Key Players to Watch: Impact Makers on Both Sides

  • Alianza Atletico
    • W. Guzmán: The team's primary goal threat, Guzmán’s sharp finishing and movement in the box will be crucial if they’re to threaten Lima’s goal.
    • Midfield pivot: Their defensive midfielder’s ability to break up play and initiate counters could be pivotal in limiting Lima's attacking flow.
  • Alianza Lima
    • R. Garcés: As their leading scorer, his positioning and link-up play could unlock the Atletico defense if given space.
    • P. Guerrero: Known for his pace and dribbling, Guerrero stretches defenses and can create scoring opportunities out of nothing.

Historical Encounters: Patterns and Insights

The recent head-to-heads highlight a clear home advantage for Alianza Lima. Out of their last 16 meetings, Lima has won nine, while Atletico has managed just four victories. Interestingly, the average goals per match hover just above two, with a consistent trend of under 2.5 goals and a BTTS rate around 31%, suggesting tight contests and cautious approaches.

In their latest fixture earlier this year, Alianza Atletico secured a surprising 3-1 victory over Lima — a rare bright spot for the hosts. However, Lima responded strongly in subsequent clashes, including a 2-0 away win last July, underscoring their resilience and ability to adapt tactically.

Deep Dive into the Betting Market: Odds and Value Pickings

Bookmakers price Alianza Lima as the firm favorite at 1.5 (implying a 47.1% chance), reflecting their recent form and history. Toward the other end, the home side is pegged at 2.4, translating to a roughly 29.4% implied probability. The draw sits at 3, or about 23.5%, offering a decent value considering the competitiveness of the fixture.

The Double Chance markets highlight the perceived robustness of Lima’s chances, with 1X at 1.65 and X2 at 1.29. Notably, the Asian Handicap markets offer a +0.25 start for Atletico at 1.95, suggesting that backing them in the Asian market might provide value, given their recent home resilience and Lima’s occasional lapses away from home.

Goals markets lean toward under 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.59, with a 59% confidence level based on current stats and historical patterns of low-scoring contests. The no BTTS option is marginally favored at 1.8, aligning with the defensive tendencies both teams exhibit in high-stakes matches.

Our Verdict: A Tactical and Betting Perspective

Given the data and recent form, our confidence leans toward an eventual victory for Alianza Lima, potentially a narrow one, considering Atletico’s defensive stubbornness at home. The low-scoring expectancy, combined with their recent struggles to produce goals, suggests a bet on under 2.5 goals is prudent.

For an outside value pick, considering the odds and patterns, a small wager on the Asian Handicap +0.25 for Alianza Atletico looks attractive. It offers a buffer against a potential Lima win while aligning with Atletico’s home resilience and the historical tendency for tight encounters.

Prognosis: Precision Predictions for the Clash

  • Match Result: Favoring an away win — Alianza Lima to edge a low-scoring game (Confidence: 44%).
  • Total Goals: Under 2.5 (Confidence: 59%) — supported by both recent stats and historical trends.
  • Both Teams Score: No — given the defensive solidity and cautious approaches (Confidence: 53%).
  • Double Chance: X2 — betting on Lima to avoid defeat, considering Atletico’s limited firepower at home (Confidence: 36%).

Summary of Best Bets

  • Alianza Lima to win (1.5 odds) — primary pick for a likely narrow victory.
  • Under 2.5 goals (1.59 odds) — statistically favored, with both teams showing defensive discipline.
  • Asian Handicap +0.25 for Alianza Atletico (1.95) — value play reflecting their home resilience and Lima’s slight vulnerabilities away.

This fixture, with its blend of tactical discipline, recent form, and historical patterns, promises a contest rooted in strategic battles rather than free-flowing attacking spectacle. Bettors should consider the nuanced probabilities, but the core expectation remains a tight, low-scoring affair favoring Alianza Lima’s consistent execution.

Additional Information

Alianza AtleticoAlianza Atletico

Top Scorers

W. Guzmán
W. GuzmánDefender
1Goals

Top Assists

F. Flores
F. FloresMidfielder
1Assists

Cards

F. Flores
F. FloresMidfielder
10
A. Gordillo
A. GordilloDefender
10
H. Lupú
H. LupúMidfielder
10
R. Suarez
R. SuarezDefender
10
Alianza LimaAlianza Lima

Top Scorers

R. Garcés
R. GarcésDefender
1Goals
P. Guerrero
P. GuerreroAttacker
1Goals

Top Assists

E. Castillo
E. CastilloAttacker
1Assists

Cards

P. Guerrero
P. GuerreroAttacker
10
L. Advíncula
L. AdvínculaDefender
10
M. Antoni
M. AntoniDefender
10
C. Carbajal
C. CarbajalDefender
10
K. Quevedo
K. QuevedoAttacker
10

Detailed Form & Recent Matches

Alianza Atletico
WLLDD
10Played
2Wins
5Draws
3Losses
Points/Game1.1
Win %20%
Goals/Game2
Scored Avg1
Conceded Avg1
BTTS50%
Clean Sheets30%
Failed to Score40%

Recent Matches

26 AprWat Universitario2-1
22 AprLat Comerciantes Unidos0-1
19 AprLvs Sport Boys0-1
3 AprDvs Atletico Grau2-2
22 MarDat UTC Cajamarca1-1
Alianza Lima
WWWLW
10Played
7Wins
2Draws
1Losses
Points/Game2.3
Win %70%
Goals/Game2.1
Scored Avg1.8
Conceded Avg0.3
BTTS20%
Clean Sheets70%
Failed to Score20%

Recent Matches

26 AprWat Atletico Grau1-0
19 AprWvs Cusco8-0
14 AprWat ADT1-0
5 AprLat Universitario0-1
21 MarWvs Juan Pablo II College2-0

Head to Head History

Betting Statistics

MetricValue
Total Matches17
Average Goals2.06
BTTS29%
Over 2.5 Goals35%
Over 1.5 Goals53%

Goals by Team

TeamTotalAverage
Alianza Atletico150.88 per game
Alianza Lima201.18 per game

Clean Sheets

TeamClean Sheets
Alianza Atletico5 (29%)
Alianza Lima10 (59%)
15 Feb 2026Primera DivisiónAlianza Atletico0-0Alianza Lima
27 Jul 2025Primera DivisiónAlianza Lima1-1Alianza Atletico
15 Feb 2025Primera DivisiónAlianza Atletico3-1Alianza Lima
21 Jul 2024Primera DivisiónAlianza Lima2-0Alianza Atletico
4 Feb 2024Primera DivisiónAlianza Atletico0-2Alianza Lima
27 Aug 2023Primera DivisiónAlianza Lima1-0Alianza Atletico
9 Apr 2023Primera DivisiónAlianza Atletico0-1Alianza Lima
27 Jul 2022Primera DivisiónAlianza Lima1-0Alianza Atletico
27 Feb 2022Primera DivisiónAlianza Atletico4-2Alianza Lima
25 Sept 2021Primera DivisiónAlianza Atletico1-3Alianza Lima
12 May 2021Primera DivisiónAlianza Atletico0-0Alianza Lima
29 Oct 2017Primera DivisiónAlianza Lima3-0Alianza Atletico
23 Jul 2017Primera DivisiónAlianza Atletico1-0Alianza Lima
20 Nov 2016Primera DivisiónAlianza Atletico4-0Alianza Lima
25 Sept 2016Primera DivisiónAlianza Lima0-0Alianza Atletico
15 May 2016Primera DivisiónAlianza Atletico0-1Alianza Lima
7 Feb 2016Primera DivisiónAlianza Lima2-1Alianza Atletico