HNL Matchday 23 Preview 2026: Title Race & Relegation Battles Intensify

With the season now well into its second half, the 2025 Croatian HNL presents a captivating tableau of sustained competitiveness and emerging narratives. Dinamo Zagreb, cruising at the top with 48 points, looks poised yet not invincible, especially as the chasing pack intensifies. Hajduk Split, just five points behind, has shown resilience after a tumultuous run, while Rijeka and Varazdin are fighting to consolidate their European ambitions. Relegation battles loom large, with Gorica and Vukovar desperately seeking points to escape the bottom. As teams prepare for this crucial Round 23, tactical adjustments and player form will be decisive. The landscape remains unpredictable, but one certainty: the stakes have never been higher, and this round could reshape the title race and survival strategies alike.

Key Matchup 1: Vukovar vs NK Slaven Belupo

Friday, 20 Feb | 17:00

Vukovar, enduring a tough season, have yet to register an away win, losing all 11 attempts on the road. Their recent form — three consecutive league defeats — reflects deep struggles, especially offensively, where scoring remains an issue. Conversely, Slaven Belupo have rediscovered goal-scoring flair, netting in seven straight matches, with six of those goals coming in the first half, highlighting their assertive start. The data suggests a Belupo win is probable, particularly given Vukovar’s inability to stem conceding early goals. Expect an open game with potential for both teams to find the net, especially if Belupo’s streak of scoring in the first half continues. Our betting angle favors Slaven Belupo outright, and over 2.5 goals if odds align.

Key Matchup 2: Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica

Saturday, 21 Feb | 14:00

Both sides are embroiled in the lower half of the table, with Istra holding a slight edge in form. They concede a significant share of late goals—30% after the 75th minute—highlighting stamina or concentration issues late in matches. S. Prevljak’s 10 goals are integral, accounting for roughly a third of Istra’s total scoring this season. Gorica, struggling at home with six losses in 11 matches, has also suffered from disciplinary issues, with three red cards across the campaign. The prediction points toward a narrow Istra victory without BTTS, given their defensive fragility and Gorica’s recent form. A clean sheet for Istra might be on the cards, but cautious betting on under 2.5 goals is advisable.

Key Matchup 3: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Osijek

Saturday, 21 Feb | 16:15

Lokomotiva, despite an inconsistent season, has shown resilience in their home fixtures, though conceding in seven consecutive matches underscores defensive instability. They’ve scored all penalties awarded this season, which could prove decisive if awarded in-game. Osijek, plagued by disciplinary issues with four red cards in 21 matches, is also struggling away, winning only once in ten attempts. Their offensive output has been minimal, and their red cards hint at potential for further discipline breaches. The trend suggests Lokomotiva may exploit Osijek’s vulnerabilities, particularly with penalty opportunities. A narrow Lokomotiva win with under 2.5 goals seems to be a plausible outcome, with both teams unlikely to produce a high-scoring affair.

Highlight Match: NK Varazdin vs Dinamo Zagreb

Sunday, 22 Feb | 14:00

Dinamo Zagreb’s recent form is impressive — three consecutive clean sheets and three wins — indicating defensive solidity. Varazdin, meanwhile, have scored in their last eight matches and are resilient offensively. Despite Varazdin’s scoring streak, their defensive record (-1 GD) suggests vulnerability. Dinamo’s superior quality and recent defensive stability make them favorites, but the over 2.5 goals market offers some value, as Varazdin tends to score and Dinamo aims to extend their winning streak. Considering both teams' offensive form, a bet on over 2.5 goals, with Dinamo winning, is justified.

Top Clash: HNK Hajduk Split vs HNK Rijeka

Sunday, 22 Feb | 16:45

This fixture is pivotal for the top two, with Hajduk Split aiming to trim the gap and Rijeka seeking to consolidate their mid-table position. Hajduk’s penalty accuracy (4/4) and prolific scorer M. Šego (10 goals, plus 3 assists) make them offense-focused, but their recent form has seen mixed results. Rijeka, often scoring early, could exploit Hajduk’s defensive lapses; however, their recent goal-scoring pattern suggests a tight contest. Our prediction favors Hajduk winning, possibly with a clean sheet, but the aggressive style of Rijeka means a cautious approach to BTTS bets is wise. Odds favoring under 2.5 goals imply a tight, tense game, with the potential for a narrow Hajduk victory.

Other Fixtures Briefly Covered

• Vukovar vs Slaven Belupo: Slaven Belupo’s streak of consistent scoring likely continues, with a probable away win and goal-fest potential.
• Istra 1961 vs Gorica: Defensive weaknesses define this clash, with a tentative lean towards a low-scoring Istra victory.
• Lokomotiva vs Osijek: Disciplinary issues and poor away form suggest Lokomotiva with a narrow win, underscoring the importance of penalties and defensive resilience.
• Varazdin vs Dinamo: Expect a Dinamo victory, with over 2.5 goals as the top market due to the attacking potential of both sides.
• Hajduk vs Rijeka: A tight, tactical battle leaning towards Hajduk, with under 2.5 goals and a slim margin for victory.

Betting Value and Final Thoughts

While odds reflect the favorites, our analysis suggests value in backing Slaven Belupo to beat Vukovar given their scoring form and Vukovar's away woes. Similarly, Lokomotiva’s narrow win against Osijek appears promising, especially considering Osijek’s disciplinary record. The over 2.5 goals market for Dinamo’s match offers good odds, considering their recent scoring streak and Varazdin’s resilience.

In conclusion, this round will be decisive in shaping the final stretch of the season. Expect tight contests at the top and bottom, with strategic bets on market values that diverge from the public odds. The title race remains open, and relegation threats loom large — every fixture counts.

Best Bets Summary for Round 23

• Slaven Belupo to beat Vukovar — high confidence based on form and recent scoring streaks.
• Lokomotiva to narrowly defeat Osijek — disciplined, penalty-dependent, with a defensive edge.
• Dinamo Zagreb vs Varazdin over 2.5 goals — offensive potential on both sides and recent defensive solidity for Dinamo.
• Hajduk Split to win at home against Rijeka — tactical, tight, but with the edge leaning towards Hajduk.

Stay sharp, bet smart, and enjoy a thrilling Matchday 23 in Croatia’s top flight.