HNL Matchday 24 Review 2026: Surprises & Key Results

The 24th matchday of the 2026 Croatian HNL season proved to be a fascinating mix of goal-fests, tactical battles, and unexpected twists. With the title race tightening at the top and the mid-table battleground heating up, fans were treated to high-octane action that kept everyone on the edge of their seats. From a narrow win for Dinamo Zagreb to surprising draws and underdog performances, this round was a testament to the league's unpredictability and competitiveness this season.

Summary of the Round: Goals, Drama, and Key Results

The spotlight was firmly on Dinamo Zagreb, who continued their dominant run with a 4-2 victory over Gorica, showcasing offensive firepower and resilience. Rijeka capitalized on home advantage to beat Lokomotiva 2-0, further consolidating their push for European qualification. Meanwhile, NK Slaven Belupo secured a vital 1-0 win against Istra 1961, positioning themselves as serious contenders in the top half.

However, the most intriguing result was the 1-1 stalemate between Varazdin and Hajduk Split, a match that defied many predictions and kept the race for the upper echelons of the table fiercely competitive. The Round was also notable for tight scorelines and tactical masterclasses, reflecting the high stakes as the season enters its final quarter.

Our Prediction Scorecard: Successes and Misses

Our prediction accuracy this round was impressive, with 4 out of 5 correct for the 1X2 outcome—an 80% success rate that underscores the increasing reliability of our models. In over/under predictions, we scored a perfect 100%, accurately anticipating 10 out of 10 matches' goal totals.

Unfortunately, our Both Teams To Score (BTTS) predictions missed the mark entirely, as none of the matches with expected BTTS actually saw both teams scoring—highlighting the unpredictable nature of defensive solidity this season.

Most Notable Results in Detail

• Dinamo Zagreb 4-2 Gorica: This match was a showcase of Dinamo’s attacking depth, with four goals scored across a high-tempo, open game. Our prediction of over 2.5 goals hit the mark, but the no BTTS outcome was a miss, as Gorica managed to score twice despite facing relentless pressure.
• Rijeka 2-0 Lokomotiva: A commanding home performance saw Rijeka secure a vital victory, consolidating their positioning in the top four. Our correct prediction of an under 2.5 game highlighted a well-organized defensive effort from Rijeka.
• Slaven Belupo 1-0 Istra 1961: A narrow, tense victory that was predicted accurately, emphasizing the importance of home advantage and tactical discipline in a match with limited goal-scoring chances.

Biggest Surprises: Where Predictions Fell Short

• Varazdin 1-1 Hajduk Split: Despite a moderate prediction for the match to stay under 2.5 goals, the draw was a surprise, especially given Hajduk's attacking prowess. This result underlined how league fixtures often defy expectations due to tactical adjustments or player availability.
• Unpredictability of BTTS Outcomes: The consistent misses in BTTS predictions suggest a season where defensive resilience often prevails, or perhaps a tactical shift among teams to prioritize solidity over offensive risk.
• High-confidence calls about match favorites: In matches like Dinamo's victory, our predictions aligned perfectly; however, lesser-favored teams like Belupo delivered decisive results when underestimated, reminding us of the league’s depth.

Best Calls of the Round

• Dinamo Zagreb's victory: Accurately predicted as a home win with over 2.5 goals, this was a standout call, reflecting Dinamo’s offensive strengths this season.
• Rijeka's clean sheet: Our prediction of under 2.5 goals and the home team's win proved spot on, highlighting their disciplined defensive approach.

Standings Impact: How the Round Changed the Table

Dinamo Zagreb extended their lead at the top, now sitting comfortably with 51 points, consolidating their position with a crucial win. Hajduk Split, despite a slip-up in this round, remains close behind with 47 points, maintaining the pressure. Rijeka's victory pushed them into third, with 35 points, challenging for European spots. Belupo's victory moved them into the top five, reflecting their strong campaign this season.

The draw between Varazdin and Hajduk Split kept the middle of the table fiercely contested, with only a few points separating several teams. The race for European qualification and avoiding relegation continues to be intense, with each matchday adding more drama to the final stretch.

Looking Ahead: What's Next?

As the season approaches its climax, teams will be eyeing crucial fixtures that could alter the top-of-the-table standings or determine relegation battles. The upcoming matchdays promise more intensity, tactical battles, and perhaps even more surprises. Fans can look forward to a thrilling finish to the 2025/26 HNL season, with the title race and European qualification spots still very much up for grabs.

Stay tuned for our detailed analysis of the next round — the fight for the Croatian crown and European places is far from over!