A Strong Return Across Three Prediction Markets

Yesterday’s football predictions review covered 48 fixtures on Thursday, 22 Oct 2026, with the 1X2 market producing the strongest return. The correct outcome selections reached 30 of 48, equating to a 63% accuracy rate. This was the leading figure across the three evaluated markets and provided the clearest indication that the set of predictions was well calibrated overall.

The Over/Under market also delivered a positive result, with 28 correct selections from 48 fixtures and an accuracy rate of 58%. BTTS was the least successful category, but its 24 correct predictions still represented a 50% return across the full slate. Together, these results created a varied day of successes and near misses, with 82 correct predictions across 144 individual market selections. The figures show a solid overall performance while also highlighting room for improvement in BTTS forecasting.

Honest Prediction Accuracy Breakdown

Across 48 matches, the Our Pick selections produced a 63% success rate for 1X2, with 30 correct outcomes and 18 misses. This was the strongest of the three evaluated markets. It indicates that the highest-confidence picks were most reliable when identifying the match result, although a 37% failure rate means the selections did not carry an automatic advantage.

The Over/Under record was 28 correct from 48, or 58%. That is a respectable rate, but it trails the 1X2 accuracy by five percentage points, with 20 selections landing on the wrong side of the total-goals line. The results suggest that the model’s confidence in specific scorelines or goal expectations was useful, though not dependable enough to be treated as a consistent winner.

BTTS finished at exactly 50%, with 24 correct predictions and 24 misses. This was the weakest category and the least convincing area of the review. The even record shows that the Our Pick selections struggled to distinguish between matches where both teams would score and matches where they would not. Overall, the 1X2 market offered the best performance, Over/Under delivered a moderate return, and BTTS requires a clear improvement in the accuracy of attacking assumptions.

Five Correct Europa League Calls

Ferencvarosi TC delivered a 4-1 victory over Torreense in the UEFA Europa League League Stage - 3 after being backed for a win at 74%. This was the highest-confidence selection among the five and was fully justified by a three-goal margin. Ararat-Armenia’s 0-4 defeat to AZ Alkmaar also proved decisive: the away-win prediction at 69% was correct, with AZ producing the joint-largest winning margin of the group and denying Ararat-Armenia a goal in the process.

Union St. Gilloise’s 4-0 win over Hapoel Beer Sheva was another confident call, correctly identified as a home win at 69%. The clean-sheet scoreline and four-goal advantage made the result emphatic rather than marginal. OFI’s 0-2 loss to Bayer Leverkusen completed the set of 69%+ calls: Leverkusen’s 79% away-win prediction was the most confident tip of the five, and the result matched that conviction with a controlled two-goal margin.

The final selection, 1899 Hoffenheim’s 3-0 victory over Lyon, was correct at 47%. Although this was the lowest confidence level among the five calls, Hoffenheim’s three-goal win was the strongest scoreline of the evening. Taken together, the five predictions covered a 4-1 result, two four-goal victories, a two-goal win and a three-goal victory, correctly identifying the winning side in every listed UEFA Europa League League Stage - 3 fixture.

Our Biggest Prediction Misses

Our clearest failures came from assigning decisive win probabilities to matches that lacked the required margin for reliability. Juventus were backed to beat Rennes at 67%, but the 2-2 draw in the UEFA Europa League League Stage - 3 showed that a strong win forecast failed to account for the possibility of evenly matched opposition. Dinamo Zagreb faced an even sharper reversal: their 65% home-win prediction against NEC Nijmegen ended in a 2-4 defeat in the same UEFA Europa League round. Nordsjaelland’s 67% selection against CSKA Sofia also failed, with the UEFA Conference League League Stage - 2 ending 2-2.

The Brighton selection was even more exposed at an 81% away-win probability. Instead of securing victory, Brighton drew 0-0 with FK Jablonec in the UEFA Conference League League Stage - 2. That result underlines the danger of placing too much probability on one outcome in a competitive tournament fixture: the draw was entirely plausible, but our prediction did not provide adequate protection against it.

One entry also requires an important qualification. Ajax defeated Atalanta 2-0 in the UEFA Conference League League Stage - 2, yet the listed 46% Home Win prediction is marked wrong. On the stated score, a home-win prediction matches the result, so this appears to contain a labelling or recording inconsistency rather than a clear result-based miss. Overall, the genuine misses shared two weaknesses: insufficient respect for draw outcomes and overconfident selections in UEFA competition fixtures.

Results Roundup

UEFA Europa League, League Stage - 3: Ferencvarosi TC’s 4-1 win over Torreense was the only correct 1X2 pick in this group. Juventus drew Rennes 2-2, Dinamo Zagreb lost 2-4 to NEC Nijmegen, and Sturm Graz recorded a 1-0 win over Marseille. The competition produced two draws and three emphatic wins, but only one of those outcomes matched the original selections.

UEFA Conference League, League Stage - 2: Kairat Almaty’s 1-5 defeat to Panathinaikos and Trabzonspor’s 2-0 win over Heart Of Midlothian were successful 1X2 selections. FC Iberia 1999 and Mjallby AIF shared a 1-1 draw, while Getafe lost 2-5 to FC Lugano. Liga MX: Puebla’s 4-1 win over Monterrey, Atlas’ 5-2 victory over Club America, and Santos Laguna’s 2-0 win against U.N.A.M. - Pumas were also correct, despite Toluca drawing 2-2 with Club Tijuana.

Domestic leagues: In V.League 1, Cong An Nhan Dan drew 1-1 with Thanh Hoa. Both V.League 2 picks were correct: Van Hien beat Dong Thap 3-2, and Xuan Thien Phu Tho lost 2-3 to Pho Hien. Primera A supplied another successful pick as Santa Fe defeated Jaguares 2-1.

Conclusion

Yesterday’s Results delivered a strong showing across 48 matches on Thursday, 22 Oct 2026, with 1X2 accuracy reaching 63%. The figure indicates that the predictions matched the 1X2 outcome in nearly two-thirds of the reviewed matches.

While a 63% success rate does not guarantee a perfect record, it provides a positive measure of the predictions reviewed and the basis for continued analysis.