ItalyItaly
Serie ASerie A
Round 24

Bologna vs Parma Prediction & Betting Tips

Bologna

Bologna

8th42 pts
8 Feb 2026
0-1
Full Time
Parma

Parma

12th34 pts
Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna
Incorrect
Our #1 Pick
Match Result
Home Win
@ 1.49
0 : 1
FT

Betting Tips

58%
23%
18%
BolognaDrawParma
Total Goals
Under 2.5
@ 1.81
53%
Both Teams to Score
No
@ 1.80
52%
Double Chance
Home/Draw
@ 1.16
41%
Asian Handicap
AH Home -1.00
@ 2.10
48%
Half Time
Draw
@ 2.09
42%
HT/FT
Draw/Home
@ 4.20
23.8%
Correct Score
1:0
@ 5.25
19.0%

Additional Markets

Total Corners
Under 9.5
@ 1.77
52.4%
Anytime Goalscorer
Ciro Immobile
52.4%@ 1.91
Thijs Dallinga
43.5%@ 2.30
Riccardo Orsolini
40.0%@ 2.50
Santiago Castro
40.0%@ 2.50
Benjamin Dominguez
38.2%@ 2.62
Jens Odgaard
38.2%@ 2.62
Odds updated hourly from bookmakers
Predictions recalculated every 2 hours
Locked 2 hours before kickoff

Expert Analysis

Marco Rossetti
Marco Rossetti Italian Football Expert
76.5% 15+ yrs
6 min read

Clash at Dall'Ara: Bologna’s Quest for Stability Meets Parma’s Resurgence As the Serie A calendar marches into February, Sunday’s showdown at Bologna’s iconic Stadio Renato Dall'Ara stands out more than most. For Bologna, the stakes are about distanc...

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Match Facts

Bologna
Bologna have won their last 3 league matches
Bologna have received 5 red cards in 28 matches this season
Bologna have scored all 4 penalties this season
Bologna have lost 7 of 14 home matches (50%)
Bologna score 65% of their goals in the second half
Parma
Parma have received 4 red cards in 29 matches this season
Parma failed to score in 13 of 29 matches (45%)
Parma score 35% of their goals after the 75th minute (7 goals)
Parma have lost 6 of 14 home matches (43%)

Key Statistics

Bologna5
4Draws
2Parma
2.82Avg Goals
55%BTTS
64%Over 2.5
8 Feb 2026Bologna0-1Parma
4 Dec 2025Bologna2-1Parma
2 Nov 2025Parma1-3Bologna
22 Feb 2025Parma2-0Bologna
6 Oct 2024Bologna0-0Parma
View all H2H matches

Betting Odds

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet1.223.703.75
188Bet1.683.855.30
1xBet1.713.935.68

Full Match Analysis

Marco Rossetti
Marco Rossetti
Italian Football Expert
76.5% Accuracy
15+ Years Experience
2.8k Predictions

Clash at Dall'Ara: Bologna’s Quest for Stability Meets Parma’s Resurgence

As the Serie A calendar marches into February, Sunday’s showdown at Bologna’s iconic Stadio Renato Dall'Ara stands out more than most. For Bologna, the stakes are about distancing themselves from mid-table mediocrity, aiming to consolidate their position in the top half amid inconsistent recent form. Parma, meanwhile, are eager to build momentum following a promising run of results, potentially pushing them further clear of the relegation zone. This match is a perfect blend of tactical chess and individual brilliance, with both sides harboring aspirations for different reasons but united in the pursuit of vital points.

Context & Significance: A Battle for Stability and Momentum

In a season defined by fluctuating fortunes, Bologna have struggled to find consistency, with only two wins in their last ten fixtures. Their position in 10th place, with 30 points, reflects a team capable of bright moments but plagued by defensive lapses—conceding an average of 1.9 goals per game. The home advantage at Dall'Ara is crucial for them, especially against a side like Parma, who has a penchant for tight, disciplined contests.

Parma, sitting six spots below in 16th with 23 points, enter this fixture looking for a turnaround. Their recent form—three wins in the last ten games—suggests they're trending upward, especially after a critical 3-point haul in their last match. Hardly prolific in attack, Parma have scored just 15 goals all season, but their defensive record—7 clean sheets—indicates a team willing to engage in battles and frustrate opponents.

Current Form & Tactical Approaches: Contrasts and Common Goals

Bologna's rollercoaster form (LWLDL) underscores their vulnerability—five losses in their past ten games show inconsistency, yet they manage to maintain a decent goal-scoring record (1.4 per game). Their 4-2-3-1 formation emphasizes possession and attacking width, with R. Orsolini and S. Castro leading the line as principal scorers. However, their defensive frailty—conceding nearly double their scoring rate—remains a concern.

Parma's recent form (LLDDW) reveals a team that is cautiously optimistic. Their 3-5-2 system, anchored by disciplined wing-backs and two central defenders, aims to absorb pressure and strike quickly. Their attack—averaging just 0.6 goals per game—is modest, but their defensive resilience with 7 clean sheets shows a clear tactical focus on organization over flamboyance.

Key Players: Who Holds the Key?

  • Bologna: R. Orsolini's seven goals make him their main threat, with his versatility and flair likely to trouble Parma’s backline. S. Castro’s six goals and two assists add to their attacking potency, especially from wide areas.
  • Parma: Mateo Pellegrino, with his six goals, is the man to watch in attack—an unexpected scoring threat from midfield. Adrián Bernabé’s creative input could be pivotal, especially if Parma seeks to hit Bologna on the counter.
  • Bologna: J. Odgaard offers fresh legs and unpredictability upfront. Defensively, the experienced D. Bonini and L. Mazzitelli will need to be alert to Parma’s sporadic but dangerous counters.
  • Parma: A. Benedyczak, with a goal and assist, has the potential to destabilize Bologna’s backline, especially if afforded space to operate in the final third.

Head-to-Head: Patterns and Recent Encounters

The historical face-offs suggest Bologna hold a slight upper hand in recent meetings—winning five of the last ten, with four draws and only one Parma victory. Goals have been plentiful, averaging three per game, and a BTTS pattern of 60% reflects the unpredictability of these encounters.

Most recently, Bologna edged Parma 2-1 in December, while earlier in the season, Bologna comfortably triumphed 3-0 at home. Despite Parma’s 2-0 away win last season, the overall trend favors Bologna's resilience and recent dominance, especially at Dall'Ara.

Betting Perspective: Dissecting the Odds & Value

The latest bookmaker odds lean favorably towards Bologna, with a 1X2 market implying around a 60% chance of a home win. Double Chance (1X) enhances safety, considering Bologna’s recent head-to-head superiority. The over/under market is pointing toward an under 2.5 goals scenario, with about a 52% implied probability—mirroring the cautious nature of both sides.

Both Teams to Score (BTTS) is priced slightly over 50% probability, but given Bologna's defensive struggles and Parma’s sporadic attack, the value leans toward “No” – especially since Parma's 30% BTTS rate suggests they are more likely to keep things tight.

Prediction & Strategic Bets: Confidence and Rationale

Our assessment centers on Bologna’s home advantage and their recent head-to-head dominance. Despite their inconsistency, they have the firepower and organization to edge this fixture. Parma’s resilience keeps their chances alive, but their attack lacks the potency to truly threaten Bologna’s goal repeatedly.

**Predicted Result:** Bologna to win with a 60% confidence—likely a narrow victory, possibly 1-0 or 2-1. The under 2.5 goals market holds some appeal, given both sides' conservative tendencies and recent scoring patterns, with a 52% confidence level.

**Most Favorable Bets:**

  • Match Result: Bologna to win (Odds: approximately 2.05 at some bookmakers, implied probability ~49%) – slight value considering our 60% confidence.
  • Under 2.5 Goals: Odds around 1.80, with an implied probability of ~56%, but our analysis suggests slightly higher chance (~52%)—a marginal value.
  • BTTS: No—more attractive due to Parma’s low BTTS rate and Bologna’s defensive issues, with odds around 2.00 and a 52% confidence, making it a solid value pick.

Final Thoughts: A Tactical Tightrope Walk

This clash on Sunday is poised to be a test of patience and tactical discipline. Bologna’s attacking talent will seek to exploit any defensive lapses, while Parma will aim to frustrate and capitalize on counterattacks. With both sides understanding the importance of this fixture—Bologna pushing for stability and Parma seeking to extend their upward trajectory—the match could hinge on a moment of brilliance or a defensive error.

Expect a cautious start, with Bologna slightly more dominant but cautious not to overcommit. The betting markets reflect this cautious approach, favoring an under and a likely narrow Bologna victory. For those willing to delve into value, the “BTTS No” market offers a compelling option, considering the defensive tendencies and scoring rates.

In summary, this fixture offers a low-scoring, tight contest—favoring Bologna slightly—but with enough tactical nuance for fans to anticipate a strategic battle rather than open chaos. Keep an eye on key players like Orsolini and Pellegrino; their moments of inspiration could be the difference that seals the deal.

Additional Information

BolognaBologna

Top Scorers

R. Orsolini
R. OrsoliniMidfielder
7Goals
S. Castro
S. CastroAttacker
6Goals
J. Odgaard
J. OdgaardMidfielder
4Goals
N. Cambiaghi
N. CambiaghiMidfielder
3Goals
T. Pobega
T. PobegaMidfielder
2Goals

Top Assists

N. Cambiaghi
N. CambiaghiMidfielder
4Assists
E. Holm
E. HolmDefender
4Assists
B. Domínguez
B. DomínguezAttacker
3Assists
S. Castro
S. CastroAttacker
2Assists
T. Dallinga
T. DallingaAttacker
2Assists

Cards

Juan Miranda
Juan MirandaDefender
50
N. Cambiaghi
N. CambiaghiMidfielder
31
L. Ferguson
L. FergusonMidfielder
30
R. Freuler
R. FreulerMidfielder
30
C. Lykogiannis
C. LykogiannisDefender
30
ParmaParma

Top Scorers

Mateo Pellegrino
Mateo PellegrinoAttacker
6Goals
Adrián Bernabé
Adrián BernabéMidfielder
2Goals
A. Benedyczak
A. BenedyczakAttacker
1Goals
E. Del Prato
E. Del PratoDefender
1Goals
O. Sørensen
O. SørensenMidfielder
1Goals

Top Assists

S. Britschgi
S. BritschgiDefender
2Assists
Mateo Pellegrino
Mateo PellegrinoAttacker
1Assists
Adrián Bernabé
Adrián BernabéMidfielder
1Assists
A. Benedyczak
A. BenedyczakAttacker
1Assists
E. Valeri
E. ValeriMidfielder
1Assists

Cards

E. Del Prato
E. Del PratoDefender
40
A. Circati
A. CircatiDefender
40
M. Troilo
M. TroiloDefender
31
Mateo Pellegrino
Mateo PellegrinoAttacker
30
S. Britschgi
S. BritschgiDefender
30

Detailed Form & Recent Matches

Bologna
WDLWW
10Played
6Wins
1Draws
3Losses
Points/Game1.9
Win %60%
Goals/Game1.7
Scored Avg0.9
Conceded Avg0.8
BTTS30%
Clean Sheets50%
Failed to Score20%

Recent Matches

15 MarWat Sassuolo1-0
12 MarDvs AS Roma1-1
8 MarLvs Hellas Verona1-2
2 MarWat Pisa1-0
26 FebWvs Brann1-0
Parma
LDDWW
10Played
3Wins
4Draws
3Losses
Points/Game1.3
Win %30%
Goals/Game2.1
Scored Avg0.7
Conceded Avg1.4
BTTS40%
Clean Sheets50%
Failed to Score40%

Recent Matches

13 MarLat Torino1-4
8 MarDat Fiorentina0-0
27 FebDvs Cagliari1-1
22 FebWat AC Milan1-0
15 FebWvs Hellas Verona2-1

Head to Head History

Betting Statistics

MetricValue
Total Matches11
Average Goals2.82
BTTS55%
Over 2.5 Goals64%
Over 1.5 Goals73%

Goals by Team

TeamTotalAverage
Bologna201.82 per game
Parma111 per game

Clean Sheets

TeamClean Sheets
Bologna3 (27%)
Parma4 (36%)
8 Feb 2026Serie ABologna0-1Parma
4 Dec 2025Coppa ItaliaBologna2-1Parma
2 Nov 2025Serie AParma1-3Bologna
22 Feb 2025Serie AParma2-0Bologna
6 Oct 2024Serie ABologna0-0Parma
7 Feb 2021Serie AParma0-3Bologna
28 Sept 2020Serie ABologna4-1Parma
12 Jul 2020Serie AParma2-2Bologna
24 Nov 2019Serie ABologna2-2Parma
13 May 2019Serie ABologna4-1Parma
22 Dec 2018Serie AParma0-0Bologna