EnglandEngland
FA CupFA Cup
Round 32

Burnley vs Mansfield Town Prediction & Betting Tips

14 Feb 2026
1-2
Full Time
Turf Moor, Burnley
Incorrect
Our #1 Pick
Match Result
Home Win
@ 1.28
1 : 2
FT

Betting Tips

68%
19%
13%
BurnleyDrawMansfield Town
Match Result
Home Win
@ 1.28
68%
Both Teams to Score
No
@ 1.81
52%
Double Chance
Home/Draw
@ 1.08
44%
Asian Handicap
AH Home -1.50
@ 2.05
49%
Half Time
Home Win
@ 1.80
47%
HT/FT
Home/Home
@ 1.91
52.4%
Correct Score
3:0
@ 8.00
12.5%

Additional Markets

Total Corners
Under 9.5
@ 1.77
52.4%
Anytime Goalscorer
Lyle Foster
43.5%@ 2.30
Zian Flemming
43.5%@ 2.30
Jacob Bruun Larsen
43.5%@ 2.30
Armando Broja
43.5%@ 2.30
Jaidon Anthony
38.5%@ 2.60
Marcus Edwards
38.5%@ 2.60
Odds updated hourly from bookmakers
Predictions recalculated every 2 hours
Locked 2 hours before kickoff

Expert Analysis

James Mitchell
James Mitchell English Football Analyst
74.8% 12+ yrs
7 min read

The Atmosphere at Turf Moor and the Significance of This FA Cup Clash Stakes are high as Burnley prepares to host Mansfield Town at Turf Moor, a historic ground brimming with character and a passionate footballing atmosphere. Turf Moor’s intimate yet...

Read Full Analysis

Match Facts

Burnley
Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town score 77% of their goals in the second half
Mansfield Town average 2.6 goals per game this season (13 in 5)
Mansfield Town concede 2 goals per game (10 in 5)

Key Statistics

Burnley0
0Draws
1Mansfield Town
3Avg Goals
100%BTTS
100%Over 2.5
14 Feb 2026Burnley1-2Mansfield Town
View all H2H matches

Betting Odds

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet1.114.655.50
188Bet1.374.556.60
1xBet1.384.657.85

Full Match Analysis

James Mitchell
James Mitchell
English Football Analyst
74.8% Accuracy
12+ Years Experience
3.1k Predictions

The Atmosphere at Turf Moor and the Significance of This FA Cup Clash

Stakes are high as Burnley prepares to host Mansfield Town at Turf Moor, a historic ground brimming with character and a passionate footballing atmosphere. Turf Moor’s intimate yet vociferous stands often foster a tense, electric environment, especially in cup ties where passion frequently overrides league form. For Burnley, the FA Cup represents a chance to mount a memorable cup run and rally local support, while Mansfield, considered underdogs, see this as a golden opportunity to upset the odds and showcase their resilience on neutral or less congenial turf. The home advantage at Turf Moor isn’t merely psychological—it’s statistically significant, given Burnley's vocal support and familiarity with the pitch, although recent form suggests this may not be enough to guarantee victory.

Current Turbulence: Momentum and Recent Performances

Burnley's Fluctuating Tempo

Looking at Burnley's recent form, a record of LLDDW over their last ten matches paints a picture of inconsistency. They've managed only one win, with five draws and four defeats, highlighting trouble converting promising performances into victories. Their goal stats—averaging 1.2 goals scored and conceding 1.7 per game—indicate defensive frailty coupled with a modest attack. Their defensive solidity, with just 10% clean sheets in this run, underscores vulnerabilities that could be exploited by a more clinical Mansfield attack. Offensively, J. Anthony and Z. Flemming have contributed a combined 11 goals, but reliance on these individuals and occasional lapses in defense might be exposed here.

Mansfield’s Resurgence and Recent Dominance

In stark contrast, Mansfield Town’s form has seen a significant upswing—five wins, four draws, and only one defeat in their last ten fixtures. Their offensive productivity averages 1.7 goals per game, with an impressive 50% clean sheet rate, reflecting a well-organized defensive structure and a potent attack. R. Oates, with 7 goals and 2 assists, stands out as a key threat, and the team’s 46 goals scored this season underscore their capability to find the net. Their recent form—dominating in both attack and defense—positions them as dangerous outsiders capable of causing an upset, especially if they capitalize on Burnley's defensive lapses.

Tactical Setups and Match Dynamics

Burnley's Approach: The 5-4-1 Structure

Burnley’s typical formation is a 5-4-1, emphasizing defensive solidity but often struggling to unlock stubborn defenses. The wing-backs are vital to their attack, providing width and crosses, while the lone striker, perhaps Anthony or Flemming, seeks to exploit any defensive gaps. Given their recent goal-scoring record and defensive vulnerabilities, a disciplined, counter-attacking strategy seems probable—playing for set-pieces or exploiting turnovers could be their path to scoring.

Mansfield’s 4-2-3-1: Balance and Flexibility

Conversely, Mansfield favors a 4-2-3-1, allowing fluid attacking transitions and pressing high when out of possession. R. Oates operating behind a lone striker provides creative freedom, while the double pivot in midfield ensures solidity and quick recovery. Mansfield’s approach will likely focus on exploiting Burnley's thin defensive line, feeding their lethal forwards, and maintaining a disciplined shape to inhibit Burnley’s counters.

Key Figures Who Could Swing the Outcome

Burnley's Potential Match-Winners

  • J. Anthony: The top scorer with six goals, Anthony’s ability to find space and convert chances will be central to Burnley’s hopes of advancing. His link-up play and finishing prowess could be pivotal in tight situations.
  • Z. Flemming: With five goals, Flemming offers attacking potency and creative flair. His movement and set-piece threat could open up Mansfield’s defense.
  • L. Foster: The midfielder with three goals and an assist, Foster’s distribution and transitional play could dictate Burnley’s offensive rhythm, especially from midfield.

Mansfield’s Threats to Watch

  • R. Oates: Leading scorer with seven goals, Oates is Mansfield’s primary goal threat. His movement inside the box and finishing skill make him a constant danger.
  • W. Evans: With six goals and a goal-scoring record that complements Oates, Evans can operate both centrally and wide, adding unpredictability to Mansfield’s attack.
  • L. Reed: The creative midfielder with three goals and one assist, Reed orchestrates Mansfield’s attacking plays and can unlock tight defenses with his passing.

Head-to-Head Encounters and Historic Patterns

Historically, fixture data between these two sides in cup competitions has been sparse, but recent encounters and overall trends suggest that Mansfield, despite being the underdog, has occasionally caused surprises. Their resilience and attacking vigor have led to a 50% clean sheet rate in recent matches—indicating tactical discipline that could frustrate Burnley's attempts. Burnley, meanwhile, have struggled to consistently translate home advantage into wins, especially with a recent record of just one victory in their last ten matches across competitions, emphasizing that form is more delicate than Turf Moor’s reputation might suggest.

Decoding the Betting Landscape: Odds, Probabilities, and Value

Bookmaker Odds Breakdown

  • Match Winner (1X2): Home (1.14), Draw (4.2), Away (5.0)
  • Implied Probabilities: Home (66.7%), Draw (18.1%), Away (15.2%)
  • Double Chance: 1X (1.1), 12 (1.2), X2 (2.7)
  • Asian Handicap: Home -1 (1.65), Away -1 (2.25), Home -1.5 (2.15), Away -1.5 (1.7)
  • Top Correct Score Picks: 1:0 & 2:0 at 5.75 odds each

Interpreting Probabilities and Spotting Value

The bookmaker’s odds heavily favor a Burnley win—implied probability of roughly 67%—which aligns with their strong home advantage and current form. However, considering Mansfield's recent form, offensive capabilities, and defensive resilience, the value lies in the 1X double chance, which at 1.1 odds (implying a 90.9% chance) offers little payout but considerable safety. The Asian handicap markets, with Burnley -1 at 1.65, suggest expectations of a narrow home win; but the -1.5 line, at 2.15, provides a slightly higher risk-reward opportunity should Burnley secure a 2-goal margin.

Final Prognosis: Combining Data and Intuition

Based on the statistical narrative, Burnley's home advantage and recent inconsistency temper confidence in a straightforward victory. Nevertheless, their superior overall rating (55% vs. Mansfield’s 45%), combined with the implied probabilities and bookmaker trends, support a prediction of Burnley edging the tie.

In terms of scoreline, the data suggest a tight game—likely 1:0 or 2:0—given Burnley's offensive threats and Mansfield's defensive organization, with a slight lean towards the tighter scoreline. Mansfield’s clean sheet record and offensive threat mean they may find the net in this fixture, but Burnley's attack may just tip the scales.

Predictions and Best Bets: A Data-Driven Forecast

  • Match Result: Burnley to win (confidence: 67%) — supported by home advantage and statistical dominance, despite recent fluctuating form.
  • Total Goals: Over 2.5 goals (55%) — considering the attacking firepower and defensive lapses on both sides, with Mansfield’s offensive strength and Burnley's conceded goals.
  • Both Teams to Score: No (51%) — a cautious prediction given Burnley’s defensive issues and Mansfield’s clean sheet rate, but slight edge to a low-scoring game.
  • Double Chance (1X): Favored (43%), considering Burnley's slight edge but acknowledging Mansfield’s capacity to cause an upset.

Summing It Up: A Pragmatic Outlook

This FA Cup clash at Turf Moor presents a scenario where Burnley's home advantage is slightly undermined by their recent form, while Mansfield's resilience and offensive potency keep them firmly in contention. The safest recommendation hinges on Burnley’s slight favoritism, but value exists in the double chance markets and perhaps in backing a narrow, low-scoring victory. Expect tactical battles, with both sides aiming to capitalize on set-pieces or defensive lapses, but ultimately, Burnley's familiarity and superior overall strength should see them through in a tightly contested fixture.

Additional Information

BurnleyBurnley

Top Scorers

A. Barnes
A. BarnesAttacker
2Goals
L. Tchaouna
L. TchaounaMidfielder
1Goals
J. Anthony
J. AnthonyMidfielder
1Goals
J. Banel
J. BanelAttacker
1Goals

Top Assists

J. Bruun Larsen
J. Bruun LarsenMidfielder
2Assists
H. Ekdal
H. EkdalDefender
1Assists

Cards

L. Tchaouna
L. TchaounaMidfielder
10
O. Sonne
O. SonneDefender
10
H. Mejbri
H. MejbriMidfielder
10
Mansfield TownMansfield Town

Top Scorers

L. Reed
L. ReedMidfielder
2Goals
R. Oates
R. OatesAttacker
1Goals
L. Akins
L. AkinsMidfielder
1Goals

Top Assists

R. Oates
R. OatesAttacker
1Assists
F. Blake-Tracy
F. Blake-TracyMidfielder
1Assists

Cards

L. Reed
L. ReedMidfielder
10
A. Oshilaja
A. OshilajaDefender
10
Jamie Carson McDonnell
Jamie Carson McDonnellMidfielder
10
N. Moriah-Welsh
N. Moriah-WelshAttacker
10
S. McLaughlin
S. McLaughlinDefender
10

Detailed Form & Recent Matches

Burnley
DLLDL
10Played
1Wins
4Draws
5Losses
Points/Game0.7
Win %10%
Goals/Game3
Scored Avg1.1
Conceded Avg1.9
BTTS60%
Clean Sheets10%
Failed to Score40%

Recent Matches

14 MarDvs Bournemouth0-0
3 MarLat Everton0-2
28 FebLvs Brentford3-4
21 FebDat Chelsea1-1
14 FebLvs Mansfield Town1-2
Mansfield Town
DWLDD
10Played
2Wins
4Draws
4Losses
Points/Game1
Win %20%
Goals/Game2.1
Scored Avg0.9
Conceded Avg1.2
BTTS50%
Clean Sheets30%
Failed to Score40%

Recent Matches

14 MarDvs Barnsley2-2
10 MarWvs Reading1-0
7 MarLvs Arsenal1-2
3 MarDat Rotherham0-0
28 FebDvs AFC Wimbledon2-2

Head to Head History

Betting Statistics

MetricValue
Total Matches1
Average Goals3
BTTS100%
Over 2.5 Goals100%
Over 1.5 Goals100%

Goals by Team

TeamTotalAverage
Burnley11 per game
Mansfield Town22 per game

Clean Sheets

TeamClean Sheets
Burnley0 (0%)
Mansfield Town0 (0%)
14 Feb 2026FA CupBurnley1-2Mansfield Town