EnglandEngland
Premier LeaguePremier League
Round 25

Burnley vs West Ham Prediction & Betting Tips

Burnley

Burnley

19th20 pts
7 Feb 2026
0-2
Full Time
West Ham

West Ham

18th29 pts
Turf Moor, Burnley
Correct
Our #1 Pick
Asian Handicap
AH Away -0.25
@ 1.46
0 : 2
FT

Betting Tips

32%
25%
43%
BurnleyDrawWest Ham
Match Result
Away Win
@ 2.01
43%
Total Goals
Over 2.5
@ 1.87
51%
Double Chance
Home/Away
@ 1.30
36%
Asian Handicap
AH Away -0.25
@ 1.46
68%
Half Time
Draw
@ 2.12
41%
HT/FT
Draw/Away
@ 5.50
18.2%
Correct Score
1:2
@ 7.50
13.3%

Additional Markets

Total Corners
Over 9.5
@ 1.70
54.7%
Odds updated hourly from bookmakers
Predictions recalculated every 2 hours
Locked 2 hours before kickoff

Expert Analysis

James Mitchell
James Mitchell English Football Analyst
74.8% 12+ yrs
6 min read

Jamal Lowe’s Impact and the Battle for Turf Moor: A Deep Dive into Burnley vs West Ham As the bright colors of Turf Moor set the stage this Saturday afternoon, eyes will be drawn to the potential difference-maker — Jamal Lowe. The West Ham winger has...

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Match Facts

Burnley
Burnley have lost 8 of 15 home matches (53%)
Burnley have won just 2 of 15 away matches this season
Burnley score 30% of their goals after the 75th minute (10 goals)
Burnley conceded in the first half in 11 of their last 15 matches (73%)
Burnley failed to score in 11 of 30 matches (37%)
West Ham
West Ham have lost 8 of 15 home matches (53%)
West Ham have received 3 red cards in 30 matches this season
West Ham have scored all 3 penalties this season
West Ham score 25% of their goals in the first 15 minutes (9 goals)
J. Bowen has been involved in 10 goals (8G + 2A)
West Ham failed to score in 9 of 30 matches (30%)

Key Statistics

Burnley3
3Draws
5West Ham
2.36Avg Goals
45%BTTS
45%Over 2.5
7 Feb 2026Burnley0-2West Ham
8 Nov 2025West Ham3-2Burnley
10 Mar 2024West Ham2-2Burnley
25 Nov 2023Burnley1-2West Ham
17 Apr 2022West Ham1-1Burnley
View all H2H matches

Betting Odds

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet2.153.401.62
188Bet3.053.502.33
1xBet3.203.542.38

Full Match Analysis

James Mitchell
James Mitchell
English Football Analyst
74.8% Accuracy
12+ Years Experience
3.1k Predictions

Jamal Lowe’s Impact and the Battle for Turf Moor: A Deep Dive into Burnley vs West Ham

As the bright colors of Turf Moor set the stage this Saturday afternoon, eyes will be drawn to the potential difference-maker — Jamal Lowe. The West Ham winger has been pivotal in their recent resurgence, offering pace and unpredictability that could unsettle Burnley's typically well-organized back line. His ability to accelerate past defenders and create scoring opportunities makes him a player to watch in this crucial Premier League clash.

Setting the Scene: The Stakes of the Moment

Burnley, entrenched in the relegation zone at 19th, are desperate for points to breathe life into their survival bid. With only 15 points from 23 matches and a tally of just three wins, every fixture feels like a final. Meanwhile, West Ham, sitting just above—the 18th with 20 points—are clinging to hope, wary of slipping further into the relegation mire after a rollercoaster run of results.

This encounter is more than just three points; it’s a pivotal moment in their season trajectories, carrying implications for momentum and confidence. With Turf Moor's tough pitch and raucous home support, the challenge for West Ham is to translate their attacking flair into tangible results, especially given their leaky defense.

Recent Footprints: Momentum and Form Fluctuations

Burnley's recent form paints a picture of resilience amid adversity. Their last five matches — L, D, D, W, D — showcase a team stuck in a cycle of draws and narrow losses. Notably, Burnley have only managed one win in their last ten fixtures, emphasizing their struggle to convert chances into victories. Their defensive record remains a concern, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per game, but they do maintain clean sheets in about 10% of their matches, hinting at vulnerabilities but also stubborn resilience.

In stark contrast, West Ham’s form has been inconsistent. Their last five — L, W, W, L, L — reflect a team oscillating between moments of promise and disappointment. They’ve secured three wins in their last ten games, yet have conceded an alarming 2.1 goals per match on average, with no clean sheets during that period. Their attack, led by Bowen and Wilson, has a decent scoring rate (1.5 goals per game), but defensive lapses often undermine their efforts.

Strategic Outlook: Formations and Tactical Expectations

Burnley traditionally deploy a 5-4-1, focusing on solidity and counter-attacks. Their compact shape is designed to frustrate opponents and capitalize on set-pieces. The emphasis on defensive discipline is evident in their goals conceded statistics, but their attacking output remains limited, relying heavily on the creativity of Flemming and Foster.

West Ham, on the other hand, are likely to set up in a 4-2-3-1, aiming to dominate possession and supply their talisman Bowen. Their approach involves quick transitions, with Paquetá orchestrating from midfield. Defensive frailty is a concern, especially given their single clean sheet in the current season, which underscores vulnerabilities that Burnley could exploit through rapid counters or set-piece opportunities.

Players Who Could Tip the Balance

  • Jamal Lowe (West Ham): His pace and dribbling can stretch Burnley’s defense, creating scoring chances. His recent performances suggest he’s a key outlet in breaking down compact defenses.
  • Lucas Paquetá (West Ham): The Brazilian midfielder’s vision and passing could unlock Burnley’s resilience, especially in tight spaces.
  • J. Anthony (Burnley): The top scorer with five goals, Anthony’s ability to find space and convert chances could be decisive for Burnley’s attacking hopes.
  • Z. Flemming (Burnley): Consistent in attack, Flemming’s movement and finishing could be crucial if Burnley is to threaten West Ham’s vulnerable backline.

History’s Echo: Patterns and Recent Encounters

Looking back over their last ten meetings, the rivalry is tightly contested: West Ham edges ahead with four wins, Burnley three, and three draws. Goals have flowed slightly above average at 2.4 per game, with a balanced 50% of matches featuring both teams scoring.

Recent results highlight a pattern of narrow, competitive clashes. West Ham won the last meeting 3-2, emphasizing their ability to edge out Burnley in high-stakes encounters. The trend suggests a competitiveness that could again produce a lively, goal-rich game.

Breaking Down the Betting Market: Odds and Implied Probabilities

Bookmakers give West Ham a slight edge, with the away win at 1.55 (implying a 46.7% chance), compared to Burnley’s 2.3 (31.4%). The draw stands at 3.3, reflecting a balanced outlook but leaning towards West Ham’s slight favoritism.

Analyzing the markets:

  • Double Chance (X2): 1.33 – indicating a modest value in West Ham or draw scenarios, supported by their marginal statistical edge.
  • Over/Under 2.5 Goals: The odds for over 2.5 goals are priced at roughly 1.85, with implied probability around 54%. Given both teams' recent BTTS rates (70%) and the historical average of 2.4 goals per fixture, an over bet merits consideration.
  • BTTS (Both Teams To Score): Priced at approximately 1.80, with a 56% implied chance, aligning with their recent scoring form.

Deciphering the Predictions: Confidence and Rationale

Based on the current data, the most likely scenario is a close, competitive game with goal-scoring opportunities for both sides. Burnley's solidity at home and their recent ability to net goals support a reasonable expectation of offensive action, especially against a West Ham defense that has conceded 48 goals this season.

Our confidence levels center around West Ham securing a narrow victory—about 60%. The suggested scoreline is a 2-1 or 2-2 thriller, given the attacking potency and defensive weaknesses of both teams.

The prediction of over 2.5 goals is assigned a 50% confidence, based on their combined goal averages and recent BTTS trends. Both teams scoring is rated with about 60% confidence, as their attacking talent and defensive lapses favor an open, end-to-end contest.

Considering double chance X2 at roughly 36% confidence, it offers safety—especially if Burnley is to rely on their home advantage to secure at least a point.

Best Bets for Saturday’s Clash

  • Result Prediction: West Ham to win (60% confidence) — backed by their marginal edge in form and recent head-to-head performance.
  • Goals Market: Over 2.5 goals (50%) — supported by both sides’ offensive output and BTTS tendencies.
  • Both Teams To Score: Yes (60%) — given the attacking options and defensive lapses observed throughout the season.
  • Double Chance: X2 (36%) — a cautious, value-oriented choice considering the matchup dynamics.

Final Word: A Battle Between Grit and Flair

This fixture perfectly encapsulates the clash of tactical discipline versus attacking flair. Burnley's gritty, organized approach faces West Ham’s creative, attack-minded style. With key players like Lowe and Bowen poised to influence the game, and the looming threat of defensive lapses on both sides, the match promises to deliver drama, goals, and shifting momentum.

Expect a tense, open game with chances at both ends, but overall, West Ham’s attacking talent and recent form give them the edge to edge out a narrow victory at Turf Moor — a result that could well be accompanied by a flurry of goals and spirited comebacks.

Additional Information

BurnleyBurnley

Top Scorers

J. Anthony
J. AnthonyMidfielder
5Goals
Z. Flemming
Z. FlemmingMidfielder
5Goals
L. Foster
L. FosterAttacker
3Goals
L. Ugochukwu
L. UgochukwuMidfielder
3Goals
J. Cullen
J. CullenMidfielder
2Goals

Top Assists

Q. Hartman
Q. HartmanDefender
4Assists
J. Cullen
J. CullenMidfielder
2Assists
M. Edwards
M. EdwardsAttacker
2Assists
K. Walker
K. WalkerDefender
2Assists
Florentino
FlorentinoMidfielder
2Assists

Cards

K. Walker
K. WalkerDefender
70
J. Laurent
J. LaurentMidfielder
40
H. Mejbri
H. MejbriMidfielder
40
J. Anthony
J. AnthonyMidfielder
30
Z. Flemming
Z. FlemmingMidfielder
30
West HamWest Ham

Top Scorers

J. Bowen
J. BowenAttacker
8Goals
C. Wilson
C. WilsonAttacker
5Goals
Lucas Paquetá
Lucas PaquetáAttacker
4Goals
Mateus Fernandes
Mateus FernandesMidfielder
3Goals
C. Summerville
C. SummervilleAttacker
3Goals

Top Assists

E. Diouf
E. DioufMidfielder
3Assists
J. Bowen
J. BowenAttacker
2Assists
Mateus Fernandes
Mateus FernandesMidfielder
2Assists
A. Wan-Bissaka
A. Wan-BissakaMidfielder
2Assists
C. Wilson
C. WilsonAttacker
1Assists

Cards

Lucas Paquetá
Lucas PaquetáAttacker
60
J. Todibo
J. TodiboDefender
41
M. Kilman
M. KilmanDefender
40
J. Bowen
J. BowenAttacker
30
Mateus Fernandes
Mateus FernandesMidfielder
30

Detailed Form & Recent Matches

Burnley
DLLDL
10Played
1Wins
4Draws
5Losses
Points/Game0.7
Win %10%
Goals/Game3
Scored Avg1.1
Conceded Avg1.9
BTTS60%
Clean Sheets10%
Failed to Score40%

Recent Matches

14 MarDvs Bournemouth0-0
3 MarLat Everton0-2
28 FebLvs Brentford3-4
21 FebDat Chelsea1-1
14 FebLvs Mansfield Town1-2
West Ham
DWLDD
10Played
4Wins
3Draws
3Losses
Points/Game1.5
Win %40%
Goals/Game2.9
Scored Avg1.5
Conceded Avg1.4
BTTS70%
Clean Sheets30%
Failed to Score10%

Recent Matches

14 MarDvs Manchester City1-1
4 MarWat Fulham1-0
28 FebLat Liverpool2-5
21 FebDvs Bournemouth0-0
10 FebDvs Manchester United1-1

Head to Head History

Betting Statistics

MetricValue
Total Matches11
Average Goals2.36
BTTS45%
Over 2.5 Goals45%
Over 1.5 Goals73%

Goals by Team

TeamTotalAverage
Burnley131.18 per game
West Ham131.18 per game

Clean Sheets

TeamClean Sheets
Burnley4 (36%)
West Ham3 (27%)
7 Feb 2026Premier LeagueBurnley0-2West Ham
8 Nov 2025Premier LeagueWest Ham3-2Burnley
10 Mar 2024Premier LeagueWest Ham2-2Burnley
25 Nov 2023Premier LeagueBurnley1-2West Ham
17 Apr 2022Premier LeagueWest Ham1-1Burnley
12 Dec 2021Premier LeagueBurnley0-0West Ham
3 May 2021Premier LeagueBurnley1-2West Ham
16 Jan 2021Premier LeagueWest Ham1-0Burnley
8 Jul 2020Premier LeagueWest Ham0-1Burnley
9 Nov 2019Premier LeagueBurnley3-0West Ham
30 Dec 2018Premier LeagueBurnley2-0West Ham