PeruPeru
Primera DivisiónPrimera División
Round 3

Deportivo Garcilaso vs ADT Prediction & Betting Tips

14 Feb 2026
1-0
Full Time
ADT

ADT

11th8 pts
Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega, Cusco
Correct
Our #1 Pick
Total Goals
Under 2.5
@ 1.67
1 : 0
FT

Betting Tips

42%
28%
30%
Deportivo GarcilasoDrawADT
Match Result
Home Win
@ 2.01
42%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
@ 1.85
50%
Double Chance
Home/Draw
@ 1.31
36%
Asian Handicap
AH Home -0.25
@ 1.87
53%
Half Time
Draw
@ 1.92
44%
HT/FT
Draw/Home
@ 5.00
20.0%

Additional Markets

Total Corners
Under 9.5
@ 1.54
59.7%
Anytime Goalscorer
Agustin Graneros
36.4%@ 2.75
Paulo Rodriguez
33.3%@ 3.00
Luiz Beto da Silva
29.4%@ 3.40
Jonatan Bauman
26.7%@ 3.75
Sharif Ramirez
26.7%@ 3.75
Christopher Olivares
26.7%@ 3.75
Odds updated hourly from bookmakers
Predictions recalculated every 2 hours
Locked 2 hours before kickoff

Expert Analysis

David Coleman
David Coleman Senior Football Analyst
75% 20+ yrs
7 min read

As Cusco’s altitude looms, Deportivo Garcilaso hosts ADT in a pivotal Peruvian league showdown Under the vibrant, mountain-swept skies of Cusco, the Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega is set to witness a contest that blends local pride with emerging a...

Read Full Analysis

Key Statistics

Deportivo Garcilaso4
2Draws
1ADT
1.86Avg Goals
43%BTTS
43%Over 2.5
14 Feb 2026Deportivo Garcilaso1-0ADT
1 Nov 2025Deportivo Garcilaso1-0ADT
28 Jun 2025ADT0-0Deportivo Garcilaso
13 Sept 2024Deportivo Garcilaso1-0ADT
7 Apr 2024ADT2-2Deportivo Garcilaso
View all H2H matches

Betting Odds

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet1.573.002.25
188Bet2.213.252.95
1xBet2.293.083.20

Full Match Analysis

David Coleman
David Coleman
Senior Football Analyst
75% Accuracy
20+ Years Experience
5.5k Predictions

As Cusco’s altitude looms, Deportivo Garcilaso hosts ADT in a pivotal Peruvian league showdown

Under the vibrant, mountain-swept skies of Cusco, the Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega is set to witness a contest that blends local pride with emerging ambitions. Known for its high-altitude advantage, this historic stadium often challenges visiting teams unaccustomed to the thinner air, giving Deportivo Garcilaso a possible edge—especially when facing a resilient ADT side hungry for points. The atmosphere will be electric, with home supporters rallying behind their team, eager to see them build on recent momentum and climb the standings.

Context and Cruciality: More Than Just Three Points

This fixture, scheduled for Saturday evening, might seem routine in the grand scheme of the league but carries significant weight for both sides. Deportivo Garcilaso, occupying 11th place with just two points from their first two draws, are eager to capitalize on their home advantage to push upward. Conversely, ADT, sitting slightly ahead in 9th with three points from a win, will aim to cement their foothold and avoid slipping further behind early-season leaders. Every point gained here could be pivotal, especially considering the tight nature of the bottom half of the table.

Recent Pulse: Form, Figures, and Friction

Deportivo Garcilaso’s Steady Climb

Garcilaso’s recent performances reveal a side that’s showing resilience and tactical flexibility. With a record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and just 1 loss in their last 7 matches, they display a balanced approach. Their goals per game hover around 1.14 (scoring 2 goals in their last two fixtures), and defensively, they've conceded less than a goal per match (0.86), highlighting the disciplined setup under their current coach. The team’s confidence is growing, especially with the core attacking players like A. Salazar and A. Ascues contributing consistently, and their home record remains relatively tight—highlighted by a 43% clean sheet rate.

ADT’s Resilient Road to This Point

ADT’s form, slightly more volatile, includes 4 wins, 4 draws, and just 2 defeats over 10 contests. Their recent results—winning two of their last five—show a side capable of grinding out points, with an attack that averages 1.1 goals per game and a defensive record that concedes only 0.8. Their top scorer, H. Arakaki, has managed 1 goal so far, but they’ve shown a propensity for tough, low-scoring battles, with clean sheets in just 30% of recent matches. Their away form remains solid but not overwhelming, and their battles with Garcilaso have often been tightly contested.

Strategic Preview: Who Will Hold the Upper Hand?

Deportivo Garcilaso, operating in a 4-2-3-1 formation, are likely to lean on their home advantage and altitude to press high and control possession. The team probably will look to dominate midfield, utilizing their physicality and quick transitions to catch ADT on the break. Their attacking approach could revolve around quick, vertical play from the flanks, given their 67% attack confidence in AI analysis.

ADT, meanwhile, are expected to adopt a pragmatic stance—perhaps a 4-4-2 or 4-2-4—focusing on compact defensive lines and quick counters. Their midfield leadership, especially through Arakaki, will be crucial in breaking down Garcilaso’s press. They will likely seek to absorb pressure and hit on set-pieces or through swift transitions, exploiting occasional lapses in the home side's organization.

Key Players: The Game-Changers to Watch

Deportivo Garcilaso’s Pivotal Figures

  • A. Ascues—Combining goals and assists, he’s the creative heartbeat, capable of unlocking tight defenses.
  • A. Salazar—His movement and scoring instinct make him a constant threat in the final third.
  • Goalkeeper—A dependable shot-stopper whose command of the area could be decisive, especially against ADT’s counterattacks.
  • Defensive leader—A central defender who ensures stability, crucial in a potentially high-altitude, high-pressure environment.

ADT’s Standouts and Influence Makers

  • H. Arakaki—The top scorer, whose ability to find space and finish chances can swing momentum.
  • Midfielder X—A key orchestrator tasked with dictating tempo and supplying Arakaki with service.
  • Wingbacks or wide midfielders—Vital for providing width and stretching Garcilaso’s solid defensive line.
  • Goalkeeper—Often their last line of defense in tightly contested matches; a commanding presence is essential for their game plan.

Historical Ties and Recent Meetings: Patterns Emerge

Looking back over six recent encounters, Deportivo Garcilaso holds a slight edge with three victories, while two have ended in draws and just a single win for ADT. Goals have averaged around 2 per game, with a 50% chance of both teams scoring—foreshadowing a contest marked by tight marking and select moments of brilliance.

Notably, recent meetings have favored Garcilaso slightly—they’ve secured wins in their last two fixtures, both by narrow margins (1-0), with ADT managing only one win in the last five. The pattern suggests that Garcilaso’s home turf and altitude continue to be advantageous, and their recent form indicates they’re settling into a rhythm, unlike ADT, who have experienced some inconsistency on the road.

Betting Breakdown: Analyzing the Numbers and Finding Value

Bookmakers offer the following odds:

  • Match Winner: Home (1.57), Draw (3.00), Away (2.25)
  • Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Likely leaning towards under at 1.75 and over at 2.00 (implied probabilities approximately 57% and 50%, respectively)
  • BTTS (Both Teams to Score): 50% (implying fair value in betting both yes and no)
  • Double Chance (1X): 1.3 (implying a strong belief in Garcilaso not losing)
  • Asian Handicap (-0.25 for home): 1.98; (+0.25 for away): 1.86
Analyzing implied probabilities reveals some interesting insights. The 1X market at 1.3 suggests a high confidence in Garcilaso's superiority or at least their ability to avoid a loss. The odds for the away win (2.25) reflect a modest belief that ADT could cause an upset, but that’s not strongly supported by recent form or head-to-head trends. The over/under markets suggest a cautious approach—expectting a low-scoring game, supported by recent defensive solidity and tactical caution from both sides. The BTTS market at 50% offers balanced risk, making a 'Yes' bet appealing given the historical pattern of 50% BTTS in recent clashes.

Prognosis and Final Verdict: Picking the Winners and Scores

Based on data, recent results, and tactical outlooks, the preferred prediction leans toward a narrow home victory, likely a 1-0 or 2-1 result. The confidence level in a win for Deportivo Garcilaso hovers around 42%, driven by their strong defensive record at home and their ability to capitalize on altitude advantage.

The under 2.5 goals market at a 56% confidence reflects the likelihood of a disciplined, tactical affair—both sides wary of conceding and mindful of their recent defensive performances.

While both teams are capable of scoring, the tight margins suggest that a BTTS scenario has a balanced chance; however, the home edge combined with their recent strong defensive showings makes a clean sheet for Garcilaso plausible.

Key Betting Recommendations

  • Back Deportivo Garcilaso to win (1X or 1.57 odds) — Given their home advantage, recent form, and head-to-head dominance, this offers the best value.
  • Under 2.5 goals at 1.75 — Supported by defensive stats and match pattern, this is a lean for cautious bettors.
  • Both Teams to Score: Yes at 2.00 — Given the 50% BTTS rate in recent meetings and attacking threats, this is a reasonable speculative play.

Final Thought: A Tactical Tug-of-War Promises Narrow Margins

Expect a fiercely contested encounter, where Deportivo Garcilaso’s altitude-induced stamina and disciplined defense could tip the scales in their favor. ADT’s resilience and counterattacking potential keep them in the hunt, but the home team’s recent form and favorable conditions point towards a narrow but vital victory for Garcilaso. A low-scoring, tense game with limited goal flow appears most probable, but a late game-changing set-piece or individual moment could alter the outcome.

This match offers strategic betting opportunities, especially in the 1X and under markets, aligning well with the statistical insights and tactical profiles of both sides. As Cusco’s mountain air helps shape this fixture, expect a contest marked by grit, tactical discipline, and a desire for three crucial points.

---

Additional Information

Deportivo GarcilasoDeportivo Garcilaso

Top Scorers

A. Ascues
A. AscuesMidfielder
1Goals
A. Salazar
A. SalazarDefender
1Goals

Top Assists

A. Ascues
A. AscuesMidfielder
1Assists
C. Ramos
C. RamosMidfielder
1Assists

Cards

C. Ramos
C. RamosMidfielder
10
O. Núñez
O. NúñezDefender
10
I. Garrafa
I. GarrafaMidfielder
10
A. González
A. GonzálezMidfielder
10
ADTADT

Top Scorers

H. Arakaki
H. ArakakiMidfielder
1Goals

Top Assists

No data

Cards

J. Narváez
J. NarváezDefender
20
J. Valencia
J. ValenciaGoalkeeper
10
J. Soto
J. SotoDefender
10
A. Gutiérrez
A. GutiérrezDefender
10
L. Pérez
L. PérezMidfielder
10

Detailed Form & Recent Matches

Deportivo Garcilaso
DLLLW
10Played
3Wins
3Draws
4Losses
Points/Game1.2
Win %30%
Goals/Game2.6
Scored Avg1.1
Conceded Avg1.5
BTTS50%
Clean Sheets20%
Failed to Score30%

Recent Matches

14 MarDvs Alianza Lima1-1
8 MarLat Cusco0-1
28 FebLvs Cienciano2-3
23 FebLat UCV Moquegua0-1
14 FebWvs ADT1-0
ADT
WLDDL
10Played
3Wins
4Draws
3Losses
Points/Game1.3
Win %30%
Goals/Game2.3
Scored Avg1.2
Conceded Avg1.1
BTTS50%
Clean Sheets30%
Failed to Score30%

Recent Matches

14 MarWat Sport Huancayo1-0
8 MarLvs Juan Pablo II College2-3
27 FebDat Alianza Atletico0-0
22 FebDvs UTC Cajamarca2-2
14 FebLat Deportivo Garcilaso0-1

Head to Head History

Betting Statistics

MetricValue
Total Matches7
Average Goals1.86
BTTS43%
Over 2.5 Goals43%
Over 1.5 Goals43%

Goals by Team

TeamTotalAverage
Deportivo Garcilaso81.14 per game
ADT50.71 per game

Clean Sheets

TeamClean Sheets
Deportivo Garcilaso4 (57%)
ADT1 (14%)
14 Feb 2026Primera DivisiónDeportivo Garcilaso1-0ADT
1 Nov 2025Primera DivisiónDeportivo Garcilaso1-0ADT
28 Jun 2025Primera DivisiónADT0-0Deportivo Garcilaso
13 Sept 2024Primera DivisiónDeportivo Garcilaso1-0ADT
7 Apr 2024Primera DivisiónADT2-2Deportivo Garcilaso
15 Jul 2023Primera DivisiónDeportivo Garcilaso1-2ADT
11 Feb 2023Primera DivisiónADT1-2Deportivo Garcilaso