UruguayUruguay
Primera DivisiónPrimera División
Round 2

Deportivo Maldonado vs Progreso Prediction & Betting Tips

14 Feb 2026
2-0
Full Time
Estadio Domingo Burgueno Miguel, Maldonado
Correct
Our #1 Pick
Total Goals
Under 2.5
2 : 0
FT

Betting Tips

37%
28%
35%
Deportivo MaldonadoDrawProgreso
Match Result
Deportivo Maldonado
37%
Total Goals
Under 2.5
59%
Both Teams Score
No
51%
Double Chance
Home/Away
35%
Asian Handicap
AH Home -0.25
@ 2.10
48%
Odds updated hourly from bookmakers
Predictions recalculated every 2 hours
Locked 2 hours before kickoff

Expert Analysis

Alexey Andrianov
Alexey Andrianov Founder & Lead Analyst
60.3% 30+ yrs
6 min read

As the Uruguayan Primera División enters its latest weekend, the clash between Deportivo Maldonado and Progreso takes on more than just league points—it’s a test of resilience, tactical adjustments, and competitive will. For Deportivo Maldonado, sitting at the top of the early standings with a perfe...

Read Full Analysis

Key Statistics

Deportivo Maldonado3
1Draws
1Progreso
2Avg Goals
40%BTTS
20%Over 2.5
14 Feb 2026Deportivo Maldonado2-0Progreso
21 Jul 2024Progreso0-1Deportivo Maldonado
31 Mar 2024Progreso3-1Deportivo Maldonado
24 Jun 2021Deportivo Maldonado1-1Progreso
6 Sept 2020Deportivo Maldonado1-0Progreso
View all H2H matches

Full Match Analysis

Alexey Andrianov
Alexey Andrianov
Founder & Lead Analyst
60.3% Our Pick Win Rate
30+ Years Experience
16.2k Predictions Tracked
Deportivo Maldonado vs Progreso — match prediction & preview
Deportivo Maldonado
WWDWW
Recent formvs
Progreso
LLLWL

Deportivo Maldonado vs Progreso: A Battle for Survival and Momentum in Uruguay’s Primera División

As the Uruguayan Primera División enters its latest weekend, the clash between Deportivo Maldonado and Progreso takes on more than just league points—it’s a test of resilience, tactical adjustments, and competitive will. For Deportivo Maldonado, sitting at the top of the early standings with a perfect record, this match represents a chance to cement their early dominance. Conversely, for Progreso, still seeking their first points of the season, it’s a pivotal opportunity to stem the tide of recent struggles and salvage their campaign. With this context, the stakes are high, and the narrative is set for a contest that could influence the trajectory of both clubs’ seasons.

Setting the Stage: The Significance of the Encounter

Deportivo Maldonado’s perfect start—one win from their opening game—has injected optimism into their ranks. Their aggressive approach, combined with a goal-scoring average of 1.2 per match, positions them as early contenders. Progreso, however, has endured a tough start, losing their opener and showing signs of defensive frailty, conceding nearly two goals per game while scoring less than one. This match is more than a fixture; it’s a statement. For Maldonado, a win could reinforce their early ambitions. For Progreso, a positive result could serve as a catalyst in their rebuilding process.

Momentum and Recent Form: Contrasts in Confidence

Deportivo Maldonado’s Road to This Point

Despite mixed results in their last five matches (W-W-D-L-L), Maldonado’s overall metrics display resilience. Their attack, averaging 1.2 goals, has shown bursts of danger, particularly evident in their ability to find the net consistently. Defensively, they concede roughly 1.9 goals per game but maintain a surprisingly high clean sheet rate of 10%, indicating moments of defensive solidity amid more vulnerable spells. Their recent form suggests a team capable of attacking with purpose while remaining cautious at times.

Progreso’s Turbulent Start

Progreso’s last five outings reveal a team struggling for consistency, with just one win, two draws, and a troubling seven losses. Their attacking output is minimal—averaging 0.7 goals—and defensively, they concede the same 1.9 goals as Maldonado. The 50% BTTS (both teams to score) statistic indicates that while their attack isn’t prolific, their defensive lapses often open opportunities for opponents. Confidence within the squad is likely fragile, and their recent performances point toward a team fighting to find cohesion.

Strategic Outlook: Formations and Tactical Expectations

Deportivo Maldonado’s standard 4-5-1 formation suggests a balance of midfield control and counter-attacking intent. They likely prioritize ball retention and exploiting spaces on the break, leveraging their attacking talents to create scoring opportunities. Progreso, potentially adopting a more defensive setup—perhaps a 4-4-2 or 4-2-3-1—may focus on compact defending, aiming to frustrate Maldonado’s offensive advances and capitalize on set pieces or defensive errors.

Expected to see Maldonado initiate pressing high in midfield, leveraging ball progression through their central and wide midfielders. Progreso might sit back with a low block, inviting pressure and looking to hit on the counter via quick transitions. The tactical battle will hinge on Maldonado’s ability to break down a potentially disciplined Progreso defense and Progreso's capacity to hit on sporadic counters.

Key Players to Watch: Impact Makers

Deportivo Maldonado’s Spotlight Figures

  • Top Scorer: Likely someone from their attacking front, given their goal-scoring record. Their ability to convert chances will be crucial.
  • Midfield Engine: A central midfielder with ball-distribution skills, orchestrating their attacks and maintaining tempo.
  • Defensive Leader: A seasoned defender capable of organizing the backline and maintaining defensive discipline.
  • Winger or Forward: Providing width and pace, stretching Progreso’s defensive shape.

Progreso’s Influential Players

  • Goal-Getter: Their top scorer, if any, will be critical in converting limited chances.
  • Defensive Anchor: A reliable defender tasked with quelling Maldonado’s forward runs.
  • Midfield Playmaker: A creative presence aiming to unlock Maldonado’s defensive lines.
  • Workhorse Winger: Speedy wide player attempting to exploit overlaps or create crossing opportunities.

Historical Encounters and Trends

The last four meetings between these sides have been evenly balanced, with Deportivo Maldonado narrowly edging Progreso (2 wins to 1, with one draw). Goals have averaged around two per game, and each side has claimed victories on their home turf. Interestingly, recent matches reveal Maldonado’s resilience—winning their last encounter 1-0 in July 2024—highlighting their ability to capitalize on home advantage and maintain a tactical edge in head-to-head battles.

This recurring pattern suggests Maldonado holds a slight psychological advantage, though Progreso’s capacity to turn the tide remains evident, especially considering their previous victory over Maldonado in the 2024-03-31 fixture.

Deciphering the Bookmakers: Odds, Probabilities, and Value

  • The bookmaker odds for a home win stand at 1.85, implying a 37.8% probability.
  • The draw is priced at 2.9 (24.1%), while an away win is 1.83 (38.2%).
  • Double chance markets (1X and 12) offer safer options with implied probabilities of about 1.4 and 1.36 respectively.
  • Asian Handicap markets favor Maldonado with +0 at 1.8 and Progreso at +0 at 1.95 — indicating a slight edge for the home side.
  • Over/Under 2.5 goals markets show a lean towards Under at 1.8, with a 59% implied probability.
  • BTTS is priced marginally on the no side at 1.97, with a 51% implied probability, aligning with the low-scoring expectations.

Expert Predictions & Strategic Bets

Forecast Confidence & Rationale

Considering the statistical landscape, Maldonado’s early-season form, and head-to-head trends, a home win remains the most probable outcome. Their attack’s higher confidence level—supported by a 100% form score in this matchup—doubles down on their likelihood to convert chances against Progreso’s fragile defense. The under 2.5 goals bet also holds strong, given both sides’ modest attack averages and defensive vulnerabilities.

The probability of both teams failing to score is just over 50%, reflecting the defensive lapses observed, but the balance of data favors a cautious approach: Maldonado’s attack, while effective, may not find the net repeatedly against a disciplined Progreso unit trying to minimize risks.

Double chance on Maldonado or a draw (12) provides value, especially with the odds at 1.36, offering a safer hedge given Maldonado’s home advantage and Progreso’s ongoing struggles.

Final Call: The Best Bet Summary

  • Result Prediction: Deportivo Maldonado to win (confidence level: 36%). Their attacking edge and home advantage suggest they can narrowly see off Progreso.
  • Goals Line: Under 2.5 goals (confidence: 59%). Defensive fragility and conservative play favor a low-scoring outcome.
  • BTTS: No (confidence: 51%). Considering recent scoring patterns, the likelihood both sides keep clean is slightly favorable.
  • Double Chance: 1X (35%). Provides value and security, especially since Progreso’s form indicates difficulty in securing points away from home.

In conclusion, this fixture combines tactical battle, statistical edge, and early-season momentum. For bettors, backing Maldonado to secure their second win with under 2.5 goals offers the best value, supported by both data and market probabilities. Expect a tightly contested game with limited goal-scoring chances and a home side eager to consolidate their promising start.


SEO

Frequently Asked Questions

Who will win Deportivo Maldonado vs Progreso?
Our model predicts Deportivo Maldonado with 37% confidence based on current form, head-to-head record and statistical analysis.
Is the double chance 12 a good bet for Deportivo Maldonado vs Progreso?
Our double chance pick is 12 with 35% confidence — it covers two outcomes for lower risk.
What is the Asian Handicap prediction for Deportivo Maldonado vs Progreso?
Our Asian Handicap call is Deportivo Maldonado -0.25 with 48% confidence.
How many goals will Deportivo Maldonado vs Progreso have?
We expect Under 2.5 goals (59% confidence), based on both teams scoring and defensive records.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Maldonado vs Progreso?
Both teams to score: No (51% confidence).
When and where is Deportivo Maldonado vs Progreso played?
Deportivo Maldonado vs Progreso takes place on 14 Feb 2026 at Estadio Domingo Burgueno Miguel.

Additional Information

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo159422314+931
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado159242416+829
3Albion FCAlbion FC158432616+1028
4PenarolPenarol158342316+727
5Central EspanolCentral Espanol157352322+124
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque156542216+623
7Club NacionalClub Nacional157172621+522
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting155641311+221
9Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo155552018+220
10WanderersWanderers156271621-520
11DanubioDanubio154651721-418
12Cerro LargoCerro Largo155281619-317
13Boston RiverBoston River155281420-617
14JuventudJuventud154381722-515
15ProgresoProgreso152491223-1110
16CerroCerro15249824-1610

Detailed Form & Recent Matches

Deportivo Maldonado
WWDWW
10Played
7Wins
2Draws
1Losses
Points/Game2.3
Win %70%
Goals/Game3.2
Scored Avg2.2
Conceded Avg1
BTTS70%
Clean Sheets30%
Failed to Score0%

Recent Matches

6 JunWat Atletico Torque4-2
31 MayWvs Club Nacional3-0
24 MayDat Wanderers1-1
18 MayWvs Danubio3-1
11 MayWvs Boston River2-1
Progreso
LLLWL
10Played
2Wins
0Draws
8Losses
Points/Game0.6
Win %20%
Goals/Game2.2
Scored Avg0.7
Conceded Avg1.5
BTTS50%
Clean Sheets0%
Failed to Score50%

Recent Matches

7 JunLvs Albion FC1-2
30 MayWat Danubio2-1
23 MayLvs Atletico Torque1-2
16 MayLat Juventud0-2
10 MayLat Atletico Torque1-2

Head to Head History

Betting Statistics

MetricValue
Total Matches5
Average Goals2
BTTS40%
Over 2.5 Goals20%
Over 1.5 Goals60%

Goals by Team

TeamTotalAverage
Deportivo Maldonado61.2 per game
Progreso40.8 per game

Clean Sheets

TeamClean Sheets
Deportivo Maldonado3 (60%)
Progreso0 (0%)
14 Feb 2026Primera DivisiónDeportivo Maldonado2-0Progreso
21 Jul 2024Primera DivisiónProgreso0-1Deportivo Maldonado
31 Mar 2024Primera DivisiónProgreso3-1Deportivo Maldonado
24 Jun 2021Primera DivisiónDeportivo Maldonado1-1Progreso
6 Sept 2020Primera DivisiónDeportivo Maldonado1-0Progreso

Important Notice: Responsible Gambling & Predictions Disclaimer

18+

YOU MUST BE 18+ TO BET. Gambling involves risk and can be addictive. Please gamble responsibly and only bet what you can afford to lose.

Our football predictions are based on statistical analysis and should be used for entertainment purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

We are not licensed financial or gambling advisors. Always consult professional advice before making betting decisions.

18+Local responsible gambling resources — United Kingdom
Self-exclusion:GAMSTOP