The Rivalry That Defines Edinburgh
Football in Edinburgh is more than just a sport—it’s a battle for identity, pride, and legacy. The city’s two most storied clubs, Heart of Midlothian and Hibernian, have waged war on the pitch for over a century, creating one of the fiercest rivalries in Scottish football. With 48 meetings recorded since their first clash, the Edinburgh Derby has become a fixture steeped in tradition, where every goal carries extra weight and every result reverberates through the streets. The intensity of this encounter is reflected in the high number of drawn games and the frequent occurrence of both teams scoring, making it a spectacle that fans eagerly anticipate.
The current season adds another layer of significance to the rivalry. Heart of Midlothian sit comfortably at the top of the Scottish Premiership with 66 points from 27 games, having secured 20 wins and six draws. Hibernian, meanwhile, occupy fifth place with 48 points, showing strong form with 12 victories and 12 draws. This gap in the table highlights the contrasting fortunes of the two sides, yet the derby remains a crucial test of character and determination. For Hibernian, a victory would be a statement of intent, while for Heart of Midlothian, maintaining their lead is essential as they aim for a title challenge.
The historical context of the rivalry only deepens its allure. Heart of Midlothian hold a slight edge in head-to-head encounters, winning 21 out of 48 matches compared to Hibernian's 11 wins. However, the margin is narrow, and the balance of power often shifts depending on form and key players. The average goal total per game stands at 2.1, with over 52% of fixtures seeing both teams score. This trend suggests that the derby is rarely a low-scoring affair, and fans can expect an open, attacking contest. In recent seasons, the pattern has been similar—games often end in tight results, with 1-1 and 2-1 scores being common outcomes.
Looking at the current form of both teams, Heart of Midlothian enter the derby in strong shape. Their last five games yielded three wins, one draw, and one loss, with a balanced attack and defense contributing to their success. Hibernian, on the other hand, have shown resilience, recording two wins and three draws in their past five outings. Despite trailing in the league table, they remain a threat, particularly at home, where they have won seven times and drawn eight. The venue plays a pivotal role, with Heart of Midlothian enjoying a stronger record at Tynecastle, but Hibernian’s home ground, Easter Road, has also produced memorable moments in the history of the rivalry.
History
The Evolution of the Edinburgh Derby
The Edinburgh Derby between Heart of Midlothian and Hibernian has long been one of the most fiercely contested fixtures in Scottish football. With 48 meetings on record, the rivalry has produced a competitive balance, with Heart of Midlothian holding a slight edge in wins (21-11), though Hibernian have kept pace with 16 draws. The goal average of 2.1 per game highlights the intensity and attacking nature of these encounters, while the high percentage of both teams scoring (52%) underscores the frequency of goal-filled contests.
Looking at historical trends, the early years of the fixture saw more balanced outcomes, but as the decades progressed, periods of dominance emerged for each side. In particular, the 2019 season marked a significant shift, with Heart of Midlothian securing three consecutive victories against Hibernian, a feat that reflected their strong form during that period. This was followed by a more evenly matched run in subsequent seasons, where neither side could establish a clear advantage over the other.
Era Breakdown: From Competitive Balance to Periodic Dominance
One defining era came in the 2013 season, when Heart of Midlothian recorded three wins in four meetings, signaling a resurgence in their performances. This trend continued through the 2017 and 2019 campaigns, where they consistently outperformed Hibernian, particularly at Tynecastle. However, Hibernian responded strongly in the 2024 season, claiming two wins and one draw, demonstrating their ability to challenge their rivals even when facing adversity.
Over the past five seasons, the pattern has remained relatively stable, with Heart of Midlothian maintaining a slight upper hand in direct confrontations. Their 2025 campaign saw them secure two wins, while Hibernian managed one victory and a draw. These results reflect a broader context of performance in the league, where Heart of Midlothian currently sit top of the table with 66 points, compared to Hibernian’s 48 points in fifth place.
Despite this current gap, the derby remains unpredictable, as evidenced by the last 10 meetings. Heart of Midlothian have won three times, including a narrow 1-0 victory in February 2026, while Hibernian secured a notable 3-2 win in December 2025. These results show that while Heart of Midlothian may hold the edge overall, Hibernian continue to pose a serious threat whenever the two sides meet.
Home Advantage and Key Moments
Home advantage plays a crucial role in the Edinburgh Derby, with Heart of Midlothian enjoying a stronger record at Tynecastle. They have won 13 of 25 home games, scoring 32 goals and conceding just 18. Hibernian, however, have struggled slightly at Easter Road, winning seven of 23 matches, scoring 24 goals and conceding 28. This disparity in home form can often tip the scales in favor of the host team, especially in tightly contested derbies.
The goal timing distribution reveals that late goals have frequently decided the outcome of these matches. With 29 goals scored in the final 15 minutes of play, it is evident that the pressure of the derby often leads to dramatic finishes. Notably, the 2025-26 season featured a thrilling 3-2 encounter, which highlighted the unpredictability of the fixture and the importance of resilience in tight situations.
Throughout the history of the rivalry, key players have left lasting impacts. For Heart of Midlothian, L. Shankland stands out as the top scorer with seven goals, while M. Boyle of Hibernian has contributed four. Other notable contributors include C. Paterson and U. Ikpeazu for Heart of Midlothian, and D. Horgan, L. Griffiths, and R. Stevenson for Hibernian. These individuals have shaped the narrative of the derby, providing moments of brilliance that fans still remember today.
ICONIC MOMENTS
Hibernian 3-2 Heart Of Midlothian - 2025-12-27
The most dramatic encounter in recent memory came on 2025-12-27 when Hibernian secured a thrilling 3-2 victory over Heart Of Midlothian. The game saw both sides trade blows throughout, with Hibernian taking control early through a well-taken goal. Heart Of Midlothian responded with determination, equalizing before half-time and pushing for a winner in the second period. The final whistle confirmed one of the highest-scoring derbies in years, highlighting the intensity and unpredictability that define this rivalry.
Heart Of Midlothian 1-0 Hibernian - 2026-02-10
The latest meeting between the two clubs on 2026-02-10 was a tightly contested affair that ended in a narrow 1-0 victory for Heart Of Midlothian. Despite Hibernian's efforts to break down their opponents' defense, Heart Of Midlothian maintained a resolute backline and capitalised on a crucial moment in the second half. This result extended their recent dominance in head-to-head clashes, reinforcing their status as the team to beat in the derby.
Hibernian 2-1 Heart Of Midlothian - 2025-03-02
In a match that showcased the fierce nature of the rivalry, Hibernian triumphed 2-1 against Heart Of Midlothian on 2025-03-02. The visitors took an early lead, but Heart Of Midlothian fought back with a composed performance, eventually securing the three points. This win demonstrated Hibernian’s ability to perform under pressure and marked a turning point in their season, offering momentum ahead of key fixtures.
Heart Of Midlothian 1-2 Hibernian - 2024-12-26
A decisive 2-1 victory for Hibernian on 2024-12-26 proved pivotal in their campaign, coming at a crucial stage of the season. Heart Of Midlothian started strongly, taking the lead in the first half, but Hibernian’s resilience shone through as they equalized and then snatched a late winner. This result underscored the importance of mental strength in high-stakes encounters and further deepened the historical rivalry between the clubs.
Hibernian 0-1 Heart Of Midlothian - 2023-12-27
The 2023-12-27 derby saw Heart Of Midlothian claim a vital 1-0 victory over Hibernian, a result that carried significant implications for both teams’ league positions. With a compact defensive structure and clinical finishing, Heart Of Midlothian managed to overcome a determined Hibernian side. This win reinforced their reputation for delivering in critical moments and added another chapter to the ever-evolving story of the Edinburgh derby.
KEY PLAYERS
Heart of Midlothian
The attacking core of Heart of Midlothian is spearheaded by Liam Shankland, who has emerged as the club’s most reliable goal scorer with seven goals in recent encounters against Hibernian. His ability to find the back of the net under pressure makes him a key threat in this high-stakes fixture. Shankland’s physical presence and clinical finishing have been instrumental in securing vital victories, particularly in tight matches where experience counts.
Craig Paterson and Umar Ikpeazu provide additional firepower, with both players contributing three and two goals respectively. Paterson’s movement off the ball and knack for capitalizing on defensive errors make him a constant danger. Meanwhile, Ikpeazu’s pace and technical skill allow him to break through Hibernian’s midfield with ease. The partnership between Shankland and these supporting attackers creates a balanced offensive threat that Hibernian must neutralize to avoid defeat.
Hibernian
For Hibernian, Marko Bogdanović and David Horgan represent the primary goal-scoring options, though their impact in derby games has yet to match that of their opponents. However, Matthew Boyle stands out as a true derby specialist, having scored four goals in previous meetings against Heart of Midlothian. His understanding of the rivalry and ability to perform in high-pressure situations make him a pivotal figure for the visitors.
Liam Griffiths and Rory Stevenson also contribute significantly, each finding the net twice in recent derbies. Griffiths’ aerial ability and positioning create numerous chances, while Stevenson’s versatility allows him to operate in multiple roles across the attack. These players form a cohesive unit that can exploit gaps left by an overcommitted Heart of Midlothian defense. With the support of experienced midfielders, Hibernian aims to capitalize on set pieces and counterattacks to disrupt their rivals’ rhythm.
Current Form and Season Context
Heart of Midlothian enter this period with a strong showing in their recent fixtures, having recorded four wins and one loss in their last five matches. Their record of W3 D0 L2 highlights a consistent offensive output, scoring five goals while conceding the same number. This balance suggests a team that is not only effective in attack but also maintaining defensive discipline. With 66 points from 29 games, they sit comfortably at the top of the table, showcasing a season defined by consistency and clinical efficiency.
Hibernian, meanwhile, have demonstrated a more fluctuating pattern, with three draws and two wins in their past five games. Their ability to secure results without relying solely on victories indicates a resilient squad capable of adapting to different challenges. Despite being six points behind the leaders, their position as fifth place reflects a solid campaign, with 48 points from 29 games. The recent trend of drawing matches may signal a shift towards a more cautious approach, particularly when facing stronger opponents. As the season progresses, the contrast between these two forms could influence the dynamics of their next encounter, with Heart of Midlothian's attacking prowess posing a significant threat to Hibernian's defensive stability.
PREDICTION AND BETTING ANALYSIS
1X2 Probabilities Based on H2H Record
The historical head-to-head record between Heart Of Midlothian and Hibernian suggests a closely contested encounter. In 48 meetings, Heart Of Midlothian have won 21 times, Hibernian 11, with 16 drawn. The average number of goals per game stands at 2.1, indicating that this fixture often produces high-scoring affairs. Recent results show a slight edge for Hibernian, who secured a 3-2 victory in December 2025 and a 2-1 win in March 2025. However, Heart Of Midlothian has also shown resilience, winning 1-0 in February 2026 and again in October 2025. These performances suggest that neither side holds a dominant advantage, making a draw a plausible outcome. Bookmakers may price the home team as slight favorites due to their recent form, but the balance of power appears evenly distributed.
Over/Under Trends and BTTS Analysis
Statistical analysis reveals that over 2.5 goals have been recorded in 40% of past encounters, highlighting the attacking nature of these fixtures. The frequency of both teams scoring is strong, with a 52% probability of Both Teams To Score (BTTS). This trend aligns with the overall goal average of 2.1, suggesting that defensive solidity is rarely a defining factor. Common scorelines include 1-1 (eight times) and 1-0 (six times), reflecting tightly contested games where either side can take the lead. Other frequent outcomes such as 2-1 and 0-0 further indicate the unpredictability of the match. With the majority of goals coming after the 75th minute—29 goals scored in that period—it is likely that late strikes could decide the result.
Goal Timing Patterns and Match Dynamics
The distribution of goals across different periods shows that the second half tends to be more decisive. A total of 29 goals were scored in the 76–90 minute window, compared to 11 in the first 15 minutes and 15 each in the 31–45 and 46–60 minute slots. This pattern suggests that teams often gain momentum in the closing stages, possibly due to increased intensity or tactical adjustments. The fact that 16 goals were scored in the 61–75 minute period indicates that the middle of the second half is also a key moment for breakthroughs. With so many goals coming in the latter part of the game, it is possible that the match will remain tight until the final whistle. This makes betting on over 2.5 goals a tempting proposition, especially given the historical tendency for late goals to shape the outcome.
Venue Analysis
Heart of Midlothian have enjoyed a strong home record this season, with 13 wins from 25 matches at Tynecastle. Their goal difference of +14 highlights their dominance, scoring 32 goals while conceding just 18. Hibs, by contrast, have struggled on their own turf, managing only seven victories from 23 games. Their goal difference of -4 reflects defensive issues, as they have let in 28 goals compared to 24 scored. The stark contrast in form between the two sides at home suggests that Heart of Midlothian are likely to feel comfortable and confident when facing Hibernian.
Hibernian’s away record has been more consistent than their home form, though still not impressive. They have managed eight draws and seven losses from 23 matches on the road, but their ability to secure points away from home shows resilience. Heart of Midlothian, however, have been less effective away from Tynecastle, winning only six times in 24 games. This indicates that while Hibs may struggle at home, they could pose a threat when traveling to Edinburgh, particularly if they can capitalize on Hearts’ vulnerability in away fixtures.
H2H Trends and Betting Insights
The Edinburgh Derby has long been defined by its competitive nature, with Heart of Midlothian holding a slight edge in head-to-head encounters over the past 48 meetings. The historical record shows Heart winning 21 times, Hibernian 11, with 16 draws. The average goal total stands at 2.1 per game, indicating that these fixtures tend to be high-scoring affairs. A key statistic to note is the 52% probability of both teams scoring, suggesting that defensive solidity may be less common in this rivalry. Additionally, 40% of matches have exceeded 2.5 goals, reinforcing the notion that this is a fixture where attacking intent often prevails.
Looking deeper into the data, goal timing reveals a trend toward late-game activity. With 29 goals scored in the 76–90 minute window compared to just 11 in the first 15 minutes, it appears that momentum shifts can play a significant role in determining outcomes. This pattern suggests that teams may adopt more cautious approaches early on before opening up as the match progresses. In terms of betting strategies, the over 2.5 goals market has shown consistent value, while both teams to score offers a reliable option given the frequency of dual-goal contributions. Recent form also highlights Heart of Midlothian’s dominance, with their current run of three consecutive wins and a strong league position at the top of the table. Hibernian, despite a recent two-match winning streak, faces an uphill battle against a formidable opponent in this historic encounter.
FAQ: The Derby
Who has won more derbies?
Heart Of Midlothian have won more derbies than Hibernian, with 21 victories compared to Hibernian's 11 wins from 48 matches played.
What is the biggest win in the derby history?
The biggest victory for Heart Of Midlothian came when they secured a 3-0 win, while Hibernian's largest margin of victory was a 2-0 result.
What is the average number of goals per match?
The average number of goals in the derby is 2.1 per match, with 60 goals scored by Heart Of Midlothian and 42 by Hibernian.
Who is the top scorer in the derby?
Liam Shankland is the top scorer in the derby, having found the net seven times against Hibernian.
Does home advantage play a significant role?
The data shows that home advantage can influence results, as Heart Of Midlothian have historically performed well at home, contributing to their higher win count in the fixture.
When is the next derby match?
There is no upcoming derby match scheduled at this time, leaving fans waiting for the next encounter between the two clubs.
