TurkeyTurkey
Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası
Round 3

Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir Prediction & Betting Tips

Correct
Our #1 Pick
Match Result
Başakşehir
1 : 4
FT

Betting Tips

21%
25%
54%
Fatih KaragümrükDrawBaşakşehir
Match Result
Başakşehir
54%
Total Goals
Over 2.5
52%
Both Teams Score
Yes
53%
Double Chance
Draw/Away
39%
Odds updated hourly from bookmakers
Predictions recalculated every 2 hours
Locked 2 hours before kickoff

Expert Analysis

Alexey Andrianov
Alexey Andrianov Founder & Lead Analyst
60.3% 30+ yrs
8 min read

On Wednesday, February 4, 2026, Istanbul hosts a highly anticipated Türkiye Kupası fixture between Fatih Karagümrük and Başakşehir. This cup clash, scheduled for midweek at 12:30 local time, carries significant importance for both sides, offering a chance for silverware, prestige, and a potential ps...

Read Full Analysis

Match Facts

Fatih Karagümrük
Fatih Karagümrük score 60% of their goals in the first half
A. Gray has scored 3 of Fatih Karagümrük's 10 goals (30%)
Başakşehir
Başakşehir concede 43% of goals after the 75th minute (3 goals)

Key Statistics

Fatih Karagümrük3
3Draws
3Başakşehir
2.78Avg Goals
67%BTTS
56%Over 2.5
4 Feb 2026Fatih Karagümrük1-4Başakşehir
17 Jan 2026Başakşehir2-1Fatih Karagümrük
17 Sept 2025Fatih Karagümrük0-2Başakşehir
20 Jan 2024Fatih Karagümrük1-1Başakşehir
20 Aug 2023Başakşehir0-2Fatih Karagümrük
View all H2H matches

Full Match Analysis

Alexey Andrianov
Alexey Andrianov
Founder & Lead Analyst
60.3% Our Pick Win Rate
30+ Years Experience
16.2k Predictions Tracked
Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir — match prediction & preview
Fatih Karagümrük
LDWWW
Recent formvs
Başakşehir
DWLWW

Comprehensive Match Preview & Betting Analysis: Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir in the Türkiye Kupası

On Wednesday, February 4, 2026, Istanbul hosts a highly anticipated Türkiye Kupası fixture between Fatih Karagümrük and Başakşehir. This cup clash, scheduled for midweek at 12:30 local time, carries significant importance for both sides, offering a chance for silverware, prestige, and a potential psychological boost in the league. With contrasting recent forms and tactical approaches, this encounter promises to be a compelling contest for fans and bettors alike. In this analysis, we'll delve into team form, tactical setups, key players, head-to-head trends, and betting market opportunities to help you understand the potential outcomes and value bets.

Form Analysis: Momentum and Recent Performances

Fatih Karagümrük: Struggling for Consistency

Fatih Karagümrük's recent form paints a challenging picture, with a sequence of five matches yielding just three draws and two losses — the last four results being LLLDL. The team has struggled to find the back of the net, averaging only 0.6 goals per game, while conceding nearly double that at 1.9. This indicates defensive vulnerabilities and an inability to sustain attacking pressure. Despite their struggles, they have maintained a 10% clean sheet rate and a 50% BTTS (Both Teams To Score) rate, suggesting that matches tend to be open but also leaky at the back.

Given their form, Fatih Karagümrük's confidence may be fragile, especially in knockout scenarios where one bad result can lead to elimination. Their 4-2-3-1 formation emphasizes midfield stability but may lack the firepower needed to break down a resilient opponent like Başakşehir.

Başakşehir: Strong Momentum and Attacking Prowess

In stark contrast, Başakşehir's form has been impressive, with 7 wins, 2 draws, and only a single loss in their last 10 matches. Their recent unbeaten streak, especially the four consecutive wins, underscores their confidence and attacking efficiency. They average 2.2 goals per game and concede only 0.8, reflecting a balanced team with a solid defensive record (30% clean sheets) and an attack capable of breaking down organized defenses.

Başakşehir's ability to control matches is evident from their form, and their 4-2-3-1 setup allows for fluid attacking transitions, often exploiting spaces on the flanks. Their recent performances suggest they are the favorites to advance in this cup fixture, especially considering their attacking threat, notably from E. Shomurodov, who has scored 14 goals this season.

Tactical Approaches and Likely Strategies

Fatih Karagümrük, historically, tends to adopt a pragmatic approach, focusing on a solid midfield and quick counterattacks. Their 4-2-3-1 formation supports defensive stability but may struggle against a team like Başakşehir that can dominate possession.

Başakşehir, on the other hand, is likely to prioritize ball possession, attacking through the flanks, and creating high-quality scoring chances. Their high-scoring season (36 goals) demonstrates their offensive intent, and their 4-2-3-1 formation provides flexibility for both buildup play and quick transitions.

In a knockout cup match, expect Başakşehir to press high and look for early goals to put pressure on Karagümrük, who might adopt a more conservative setup, aiming to capitalize on counterattacks or set-pieces.

Key Players to Watch

Fatih Karagümrük: Standout Threats

  • D. Fofana: Leading scorer with 6 goals. His ability to find space and finish inside the box makes him a constant threat.
  • Serginho: Contributing 3 goals and 1 assist, he offers creativity and pace on the wings.
  • D. Johnson: Playmaker with 3 assists, capable of unlocking defenses with incisive passes.

Başakşehir: Key Contributors

  • E. Shomurodov: The top scorer with 14 goals, his presence in the box and finishing ability make him the primary goal threat.
  • B. Yıldırım: Adds width and crosses from the right flank.
  • Nuno da Costa: Provides additional attacking options and link-up play with 3 goals and 1 assist.

Overall, E. Shomurodov's form makes him a focal point for Başakşehir's attack, while Fofana's scoring prowess could be decisive for Karagümrük if they are to threaten an upset.

Impact of Injuries and Squad Availability

As of now, there is limited information on significant injuries for both teams. However, squad depth could play a role, especially for Başakşehir, who boast a more balanced roster with seven clean sheets overall. If key attacking players like Shomurodov are fit, they will be instrumental in breaking down Karagümrük's defense. Conversely, any absences in defense or creativity could open opportunities for Karagümrük to capitalize on counterattacks.

Historical Head-to-Head Trends

In their last eight meetings, the head-to-head record is relatively balanced, with Fatih Karagümrük winning three, Başakşehir winning two, and three draws. Goals per game average around 2.5, with a BTTS (Both Teams To Score) rate of 63%, indicating a tendency for both teams to find the net when they meet.

Recent encounters have been competitive, with results often tight; for example, Başakşehir's 2-1 victory in January 2026 and Karagümrük's 2-0 win in August 2023 highlight the unpredictable nature of their matchups.

This pattern suggests that while Başakşehir holds a slight edge historically, cup matches can upset trends, especially under the pressure of knockout football.

Betting Market Analysis: Odds, Probabilities, & Opportunities

Bookmaker Odds Overview

  • Match Winner (1X2): Home (3.3 / 22.2%), Draw (3.4 / 21.5%), Away (1.3 / 56.3%)
  • Double Chance: 1X (2.05 / 48.8%), 12 (1.25 / 80%), X2 (1.18 / 84.7%)
  • Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Likely around 1.8-2.0 for over, reflecting a slight edge towards higher scoring.
  • BTTS (Both Teams To Score): Approximately 1.8, indicating a moderate chance of goals from both sides.

Implied Probabilities & Value Bets

Based on the odds, the implied probability for an away win (56.3%) aligns with the recent form and head-to-head data. The home win is unlikely at 22.2%, but cup matches often surprise, and Fatih Karagümrük's home advantage could influence the outcome.

Double chance markets favor X2 (away win or draw) at 1.18, offering a safer option given Başakşehir's form, but the value lies in the 1X at 2.05, considering possible cup upset scenarios.

The over 2.5 goals market, with a modest 52% confidence, suggests betting on goals could be profitable, especially given both teams' recent scoring records and BTTS trends.

Our Predictions & Rationale

  • Match Result: Away Win (Başakşehir) — 54% confidence
  • This prediction is driven by Başakşehir's superior recent form, attacking potency, and defensive solidity. Their 7 wins in 10 matches and consistent performance against Karagümrük suggest they are the favorites to advance, especially if their key players like Shomurodov are fit and firing.

  • Total Goals: Over 2.5 — 52% confidence
  • The attacking strengths of both teams and their BTTS tendencies support a match with at least three goals. Karagümrük's defensive vulnerabilities and Başakşehir's offensive threat make overs a reasonable bet.

  • Both Teams Score: Yes — 53% confidence
  • Given the historical BTTS rate of 63% in head-to-heads and their recent scoring records, both teams are likely to find the net. Karagümrük's offensive players can exploit defensive gaps, while Başakşehir's attack is potent enough to score.

  • Double Chance: X2 — 39% confidence
  • Considering the unpredictability of cup football and Başakşehir's current form, backing X2 provides a safer hedge, especially if the match turns tight or goes to extra time.

Best Bets Summary

  • Primary Bet: Away Win (Başakşehir) at 1.3 — Based on form, squad strength, and head-to-head trends, this is the most probable outcome, with a solid implied probability of over 56%.
  • Secondary Bet: Over 2.5 Goals at odds around 1.8–2.0 — Supported by both teams' scoring patterns and recent matches, especially in cup competitions where open play is common.
  • Value Bet: Double Chance X2 at 1.18 — Offers insurance against an upset, a realistic scenario in knockout tournaments, with a high likelihood of at least a draw or away win.
  • Optional: Both Teams To Score (BTTS) at odds around 1.8 — Based on historical BTTS rate and scoring trends, this market offers good value if you expect goals from both sides.

Considerations & Risks

Cup matches are inherently unpredictable; surprises often occur, especially in midweek fixtures where fatigue and squad rotation can influence outcomes. Injuries to key players or tactical surprises could sway results. The form suggests Başakşehir is favored, but Fatih Karagümrük's home advantage and resilience could lead to an upset. Always consider the possibility of extra time or penalties in knockout scenarios, which can affect total goals and outcome predictions.

Conclusion

This fixture presents a clear edge to Başakşehir based on current form, attacking capability, and head-to-head data. However, the cup setting and midweek scheduling introduce variables that could favor an upset or a tightly contested match. Bettors should consider double chance options and the over 2.5 goals market for balanced risk and reward. Overall, the most probable outcome is an away victory with both teams scoring and a total of over 2.5 goals, making these the key bets for this intriguing cup tie.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who will win Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir?
Our model predicts Başakşehir with 54% confidence based on current form, head-to-head record and statistical analysis.
Is the double chance X2 a good bet for Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir?
Our double chance pick is X2 with 39% confidence — it covers two outcomes for lower risk.
How many goals will Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir have?
We expect Over 2.5 goals (52% confidence), based on both teams scoring and defensive records.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir?
Both teams to score: Yes (53% confidence).
When and where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir played?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir takes place on 4 Feb 2026.

Additional Information

Fatih KaragümrükFatih Karagümrük

Top Scorers

A. Gray
A. GrayForward
3Goals
D. Fofana
D. FofanaForward
2Goals
Serginho
SerginhoForward
1Goals
A. Çankaya
A. ÇankayaDefender
1Goals

Top Assists

No data

Cards

A. Çınar
A. ÇınarDefender
20
A. Gray
A. GrayForward
10
Muhammed Kadioglu
Muhammed KadiogluDefender
10
BaşakşehirBaşakşehir

Top Scorers

I. Brnić
I. BrnićForward
1Goals
A. Fayzullaev
A. FayzullaevForward
1Goals
E. Shomurodov
E. ShomurodovForward
1Goals
J. Opoku
J. OpokuDefender
1Goals
Nuno da Costa
Nuno da CostaForward
1Goals

Top Assists

No data

Cards

A. Fayzullaev
A. FayzullaevForward
10
F. Ebosele
F. EboseleDefender
10

Detailed Form & Recent Matches

Fatih Karagümrük
LDWWW
10Played
5Wins
2Draws
3Losses
Points/Game1.7
Win %50%
Goals/Game1.9
Scored Avg1
Conceded Avg0.9
BTTS40%
Clean Sheets40%
Failed to Score30%

Recent Matches

16 MayWvs Alanyaspor2-1
9 MayWat Kocaelispor1-0
3 MayWvs Gençlerbirliği S.K.1-0
27 AprDat Beşiktaş0-0
18 AprLvs Eyüpspor1-2
Başakşehir
DWLWW
10Played
5Wins
3Draws
2Losses
Points/Game1.8
Win %50%
Goals/Game2.5
Scored Avg1.6
Conceded Avg0.9
BTTS40%
Clean Sheets50%
Failed to Score30%

Recent Matches

16 MayWat Gaziantep FK2-1
9 MayWvs Samsunspor3-0
2 MayLat Fenerbahçe1-3
24 AprWvs Kasımpaşa4-0
19 AprDat Trabzonspor1-1

Head to Head History

Betting Statistics

MetricValue
Total Matches9
Average Goals2.78
BTTS67%
Over 2.5 Goals56%
Over 1.5 Goals89%

Goals by Team

TeamTotalAverage
Fatih Karagümrük121.33 per game
Başakşehir131.44 per game

Clean Sheets

TeamClean Sheets
Fatih Karagümrük2 (22%)
Başakşehir2 (22%)
4 Feb 2026Türkiye KupasıFatih Karagümrük1-4Başakşehir
17 Jan 2026Super LigBaşakşehir2-1Fatih Karagümrük
17 Sept 2025Super LigFatih Karagümrük0-2Başakşehir
20 Jan 2024Super LigFatih Karagümrük1-1Başakşehir
20 Aug 2023Super LigBaşakşehir0-2Fatih Karagümrük
19 Mar 2023Super LigFatih Karagümrük2-2Başakşehir
18 Sept 2022Super LigBaşakşehir0-0Fatih Karagümrük
26 Feb 2022Super LigBaşakşehir1-2Fatih Karagümrük
1 Oct 2021Super LigFatih Karagümrük3-1Başakşehir

Important Notice: Responsible Gambling & Predictions Disclaimer

18+

YOU MUST BE 18+ TO BET. Gambling involves risk and can be addictive. Please gamble responsibly and only bet what you can afford to lose.

Our football predictions are based on statistical analysis and should be used for entertainment purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

We are not licensed financial or gambling advisors. Always consult professional advice before making betting decisions.

18+Local responsible gambling resources — United Kingdom
Self-exclusion:GAMSTOP