ItalyItaly
Serie ASerie A
Round 24

Fiorentina vs Torino Prediction & Betting Tips

7 Feb 2026
2-2
Full Time
Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence
Incorrect
Our #1 Pick
Match Result
Fiorentina
2 : 2
FT

Betting Tips

58%
23%
19%
FiorentinaDrawTorino
Match Result
Fiorentina
58%
Total Goals
Over 2.5
50%
Both Teams Score
Yes
51%
Double Chance
Home/Draw
41%
Asian Handicap
AH Home -1.00
@ 2.15
47%
Odds updated hourly from bookmakers
Predictions recalculated every 2 hours
Locked 2 hours before kickoff

Expert Analysis

Marco Rossetti
Marco Rossetti Italian Football Expert
76.5% 15+ yrs
6 min read

In the heart of Florence, where Italian football's rich heritage converges with tactical nuance, Fiorentina hosts Torino in a fixture that promises strategic fireworks. Both teams are navigating mid-season turbulence, yet their contrasting approaches and recent form patterns hint at an intriguing cl...

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Match Facts

Fiorentina
Fiorentina are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches
Fiorentina have scored all 6 penalties this season
Torino
Torino have scored all 4 penalties this season
Torino have lost 7 of 16 home matches (44%)
Torino failed to score in 10 of 33 matches (30%)

Key Statistics

Fiorentina4
5Draws
2Torino
1.91Avg Goals
45%BTTS
36%Over 2.5
7 Feb 2026Fiorentina2-2Torino
31 Aug 2025Torino0-0Fiorentina
19 Jan 2025Fiorentina1-1Torino
3 Nov 2024Torino0-1Fiorentina
2 Mar 2024Torino0-0Fiorentina
View all H2H matches

Full Match Analysis

Marco Rossetti
Marco Rossetti
Italian Football Expert
76.5% Accuracy
15+ Years Experience
2.8k Predictions

Strategic chess at Fiorentina’s Artemio Franchi: a tactical preview of Fiorentina vs Torino

In the heart of Florence, where Italian football's rich heritage converges with tactical nuance, Fiorentina hosts Torino in a fixture that promises strategic fireworks. Both teams are navigating mid-season turbulence, yet their contrasting approaches and recent form patterns hint at an intriguing clash of styles. The managerial chess match, combined with key players' influence and statistical insights, will decide not just the result but also the narrative of their season’s trajectory.

Deciphering the narrative: Why this match matters in Serie A’s tapestry

Fiorentina, buried in the lower echelons of the Serie A standings at 18th with just 17 points, desperately needs wins to lift morale and climb out of the relegation zone. Their recent form—only one win in five—reflects a team caught in inconsistency, yet their home advantage at Stadio Artemio Franchi remains vital. Conversely, Torino, sitting comfortably in 13th with 26 points, aim to solidify their mid-table presence after a mixed run, marked by four wins in their last ten but with a fragile defensive record.

This fixture, beyond its league implications, becomes a tactical battleground where managerial philosophies and player performances intersect. Both teams operate with a 3-5-2 formation, but the nuances in their strategic deployment—such as pressing intensity, midfield control, and attacking discipline—could tilt the balance.

Momentum and recent form: the battle of fluctuating fortunes

Fiorentina’s recent results—three losses, two wins—highlight their volatility. Their attacking prowess averages 1.4 goals per game, but conceding at the same rate (1.4) indicates defensive vulnerabilities. Their BTTS (Both Teams To Score) rate of 70% underscores their attacking intent, yet the 10% clean sheet rate signals defensive lapses.

Torino’s form, modest in wins but consistent in scoring, features an attack averaging 1.1 goals and a conceded rate of 1.8. Their recent four-match run showcases resilience, with a record of one win, but their defensive unit—highlighted by a 30% clean sheet rate—can be penetrable. BTTS stands at 40%, reflecting a somewhat cautious approach with occasional attacking sparks from Vlašić and Simeone.

Formary tactics: unlocking the tactical blueprint

Both sides favor a 3-5-2, emphasizing midfield control and wing play. Fiorentina’s approach leans on progressive buildup through their wing-backs and creative midfielders like Guðmundsson, who can unlock defenses with timely passes. Their 78% attacking profile suggests an intention to push forward, though their defensive line, conceding at a similar rate, often leaves gaps for quick counters.

Torino, under their coach, tends to adopt a more cautious stance, relying on compact defensive shape and quick transitions. Vlašić and Simeone provide outlets in attack, but their overall goal output indicates a need for more clinical finishing. Defensively, they capitalize on disciplined positioning, which has resulted in nine clean sheets—highlighting their potential to frustrate Fiorentina’s attacking ambitions.

Star players poised to influence the outcome

  • Fiorentina:
    • R. Mandragora (6 goals) – a pivotal midfielder whose goal-scoring ability from deeper positions can unlock defenses.
    • Mohamed Kean (5 goals) – a versatile attacker capable of exploiting spaces behind the opposition’s defense.
    • A. Guðmundsson (4 goals, 3 assists) – creative force dictating play and providing key passes in tight situations.
  • Torino: >
    • Nicolò Vlašić (5 goals, 3 assists) – their most creative player, capable of threading key passes and scoring from outside the box.
    • G. Simeone (5 goals) – a clinical finisher whose positioning inside the box demands attention from defenders.
    • C. Adams (4 assists) – key in launching counters and maintaining midfield control.

Historical fabric: patterns from past encounters

The head-to-head ledger reveals a closely contested rivalry—Fiorentina leads with four wins in their last ten meetings, with four draws and only two Torino wins. Goals per game average at 1.7, indicating a generally tight matchups with a modest BTTS rate of 40%. Recent encounters highlight defensive resilience; for example, the 0-0 draw in August 2025 and a 1-1 stalemate in January underline a cautious tone in their clashes.

Betting landscape: dissecting probabilities and spotting value

Bookmakers currently offer odds that reflect a balanced view, but let’s analyze the implied probabilities:

  • 1 (Fiorentina win): Approximate odds at 2.50 imply a 40% chance, but our analysis favors a slightly higher likelihood—around 51%—given Fiorentina's home edge and recent form.
  • Draw: Odds near 3.20 suggest a 31% implied probability. Considering both teams' recent defensive displays, a draw remains plausible, yet our confidence is around 34% due to Fiorentina's home tendency to threaten.
  • 2 (Torino win): At approximately 3.00 odds, implied probability hovers around 33%, but given Torino’s robust defensive record and recent away form, we assign it a lower confidence—around 15%—making it a less favored outcome.

Over/Under Goals and Both Teams To Score: where’s the value?

Odds for over/under 2.5 goals sit at roughly 1.90 for over and 1.80 for under—implying about a 52-55% likelihood. Given the recent scoring averages (Fiorentina 1.4, Torino 1.1) and their BTTS tendencies (~70% for Fiorentina), a bet on under 2.5 goals at slightly better value (>2.00) is tempting. However, the consistent attacking players and potential for defensive lapses suggest an over/under split leaning slightly towards under, but only marginally.

BTTS odds are around 1.80, implying a 55% probability, and our data supports this, especially considering Fiorentina’s attacking intent and Torino’s defensive fragility. We see value in a BTTS Yes bet, with our confidence just over 52%.

Double Chance and Asian Handicap: assessing safer options

  • Double Chance 1X: with a 51% confidence in Fiorentina winning, the odds at around 1.70 offer good value—especially considering Fiorentina’s home advantage and recent head-to-head trends.
  • Asian Handicap +0.25 on Torino: offers a safety net if Torino pulls off a draw or narrow win, though the implied probabilities favor Fiorentina slightly, making 1X the more appealing option here.

Formal Prediction with analytical backing

Taking all data points into account, our most confident prediction is a Fiorentina win at approximately 51% confidence, supported by their home advantage, slightly better form, and head-to-head history. The likelihood of under 2.5 goals mirrors this, with a 51% confidence, considering both teams’ defensive records and scoring averages.

Both teams scoring stands at a delicate 52% probability—further supported by their BTTS percentages—making it a plausible secondary bet. The modest chance of a Torino upset (around 15%) is less convincing, although the defensive resilience of Torino keeps the possibility open.

Best betting options: a strategic approach

  • Primary bet: Fiorentina to win (1) at around 2.50 odds — value, given the data-driven confidence level.
  • Secondary bet: Under 2.5 goals at about 1.90 odds — aligns with scoring trends and defensive frailty.
  • Alternative risk: Both Teams To Score YES at roughly 1.80 odds — supported by recent attacking trends and BTTS percentages.

In conclusion, expect a tactically disciplined Fiorentina side at their home ground, employing their offensive talents while managing Torino’s counter-attacking threats. The combination of statistical insights, recent form, and head-to-head patterns strongly favors a narrow Fiorentina victory, with a high likelihood of seeing both teams find the net.

Additional Information

FiorentinaFiorentina

Top Scorers

R. Mandragora
R. MandragoraMidfielder
6Goals
M. Kean
M. KeanAttacker
5Goals
A. Guðmundsson
A. GuðmundssonAttacker
4Goals
R. Piccoli
R. PiccoliAttacker
2Goals
R. Gosens
R. GosensMidfielder
2Goals

Top Assists

A. Guðmundsson
A. GuðmundssonAttacker
3Assists
N. Fagioli
N. FagioliMidfielder
3Assists
Dodô
DodôMidfielder
2Assists
M. Kean
M. KeanAttacker
1Assists
S. Sohm
S. SohmMidfielder
1Assists

Cards

M. Pongračić
M. PongračićDefender
80
L. Ranieri
L. RanieriDefender
50
R. Mandragora
R. MandragoraMidfielder
40
N. Fagioli
N. FagioliMidfielder
40
F. Parisi
F. ParisiDefender
40
TorinoTorino

Top Scorers

N. Vlašić
N. VlašićAttacker
5Goals
G. Simeone
G. SimeoneAttacker
5Goals
C. Adams
C. AdamsAttacker
4Goals
C. Casadei
C. CasadeiMidfielder
2Goals
Saúl Coco
Saúl CocoDefender
1Goals

Top Assists

N. Vlašić
N. VlašićAttacker
3Assists
V. Lazaro
V. LazaroDefender
2Assists
C. Adams
C. AdamsAttacker
1Assists
Saúl Coco
Saúl CocoDefender
1Assists
C. Ngonge
C. NgongeAttacker
1Assists

Cards

N. Vlašić
N. VlašićAttacker
50
C. Casadei
C. CasadeiMidfielder
50
A. Ismajli
A. IsmajliDefender
30
M. Pedersen
M. PedersenDefender
30
K. Asllani
K. AsllaniMidfielder
30

Detailed Form & Recent Matches

Fiorentina
DDWWL
10Played
6Wins
3Draws
1Losses
Points/Game2.1
Win %60%
Goals/Game2.3
Scored Avg1.4
Conceded Avg0.9
BTTS60%
Clean Sheets30%
Failed to Score20%

Recent Matches

26 AprDvs Sassuolo0-0
20 AprDat Lecce1-1
16 AprWvs Crystal Palace2-1
13 AprWvs Lazio1-0
9 AprLat Crystal Palace0-3
Torino
DDWWL
10Played
4Wins
2Draws
4Losses
Points/Game1.4
Win %40%
Goals/Game2.9
Scored Avg1.5
Conceded Avg1.4
BTTS60%
Clean Sheets30%
Failed to Score20%

Recent Matches

26 AprDvs Inter2-2
19 AprDat Cremonese0-0
11 AprWvs Hellas Verona2-1
5 AprWat Pisa1-0
21 MarLat AC Milan2-3

Head to Head History

Betting Statistics

MetricValue
Total Matches11
Average Goals1.91
BTTS45%
Over 2.5 Goals36%
Over 1.5 Goals55%

Goals by Team

TeamTotalAverage
Fiorentina100.91 per game
Torino111 per game

Clean Sheets

TeamClean Sheets
Fiorentina4 (36%)
Torino4 (36%)
7 Feb 2026Serie AFiorentina2-2Torino
31 Aug 2025Serie ATorino0-0Fiorentina
19 Jan 2025Serie AFiorentina1-1Torino
3 Nov 2024Serie ATorino0-1Fiorentina
2 Mar 2024Serie ATorino0-0Fiorentina
29 Dec 2023Serie AFiorentina1-0Torino
21 May 2023Serie ATorino1-1Fiorentina
1 Feb 2023Coppa ItaliaFiorentina2-1Torino
21 Jan 2023Serie AFiorentina0-1Torino
10 Jan 2022Serie ATorino4-0Fiorentina
28 Aug 2021Serie AFiorentina2-1Torino