GermanyGermany
BundesligaBundesliga
Round 21

FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg Prediction & Betting Tips

FSV Mainz 05

FSV Mainz 05

13th27 pts
7 Feb 2026
2-0
Full Time
FC Augsburg

FC Augsburg

10th31 pts
Mewa Arena, Mainz
Incorrect
Our #1 Pick
Both Teams to Score
Yes
@ 1.71
2 : 0
FT

Betting Tips

48%
25%
27%
FSV Mainz 05DrawFC Augsburg
Match Result
Home Win
@ 1.79
48%
Total Goals
Over 2.5
@ 1.88
51%
Double Chance
Home/Draw
@ 1.29
37%
Asian Handicap
AH Home -0.50
@ 1.97
51%
Half Time
Draw
@ 2.10
41%
HT/FT
Draw/Home
@ 4.75
21.1%
Correct Score
2:1
@ 7.00
14.3%

Additional Markets

Total Corners
Over 9.5
@ 1.85
50.0%
Odds updated hourly from bookmakers
Predictions recalculated every 2 hours
Locked 2 hours before kickoff

Expert Analysis

Hans Weber
Hans Weber German Football Specialist
75.9% 14+ yrs
7 min read

Revving Up at the Mewa Arena: Mainz's Battle for Survival Meets Augsburg's Mid-Table Push If recent history is anything to go by, Mainz versus Augsburg tends to deliver goals—and plenty of drama. The last ten head-to-heads have averaged a whopping 3 ...

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Match Facts

FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 05 have scored all 7 penalties this season
FSV Mainz 05 have received 5 red cards in 25 matches this season
FSV Mainz 05 concede 38% of goals after the 75th minute (15 goals)
FSV Mainz 05 have won just 2 of 12 away matches this season
FSV Mainz 05 failed to score in 9 of 25 matches (36%)
FC Augsburg
FC Augsburg have won their last 3 league matches
FC Augsburg have scored all 3 penalties this season
FC Augsburg score 30% of their goals after the 75th minute (10 goals)
FC Augsburg average 2.7 yellow cards per game (67 in 25 matches)

Key Statistics

FSV Mainz 057
1Draws
3FC Augsburg
2.91Avg Goals
64%BTTS
64%Over 2.5
7 Feb 2026FSV Mainz 052-0FC Augsburg
20 Sept 2025FC Augsburg1-4FSV Mainz 05
8 Feb 2025FSV Mainz 050-0FC Augsburg
20 Sept 2024FC Augsburg2-3FSV Mainz 05
17 Feb 2024FSV Mainz 051-0FC Augsburg
View all H2H matches

Betting Odds

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet1.453.502.55
188Bet2.063.603.60
1xBet2.093.683.76

Full Match Analysis

Hans Weber
Hans Weber
German Football Specialist
75.9% Accuracy
14+ Years Experience
2.6k Predictions

Revving Up at the Mewa Arena: Mainz's Battle for Survival Meets Augsburg's Mid-Table Push

If recent history is anything to go by, Mainz versus Augsburg tends to deliver goals—and plenty of drama. The last ten head-to-heads have averaged a whopping 3 goals per game, with 70% of those matches seeing both teams find the net. As these two sides prepare to clash on Saturday afternoon, all eyes are on an encounter that could define the trajectory for both clubs—either as a step toward stability or a slide into deeper trouble.

Context and Significance: Mid-Season Crossroads with High Stakes

The Mewa Arena in Mainz isn't just a battleground; it’s a crossing point for both teams’ seasons. Mainz, currently languishing in 16th place with 18 points, is fighting to avoid slipping further into the relegation zone. Their recent form, streaking with 4 wins in the last ten games, comes with the caveat that their defense remains leaky, conceding an average of 1.1 goals per match. Meanwhile, Augsburg sits comfortably in 11th with 22 points but has struggled to build consistency, evidenced by their mixed results in recent weeks—achieving four wins but dropping points in three of their last ten games.

This fixture isn't just about bragging rights; it’s about survival and stability. Mainz desperately need to turn their home advantage into points, especially against an opponent who’s proven resilient. Augsburg, on the other hand, are aiming to consolidate their mid-table position, avoid mid-season stagnation, and build momentum heading into the decisive stretch. With both clubs adopting their tried-and-tested formations, the tactical nuances and individual battlefronts promise fireworks.

Momentum and Recent Trajectories

Mainz’s recent form—WWLWD—highlights a team that’s capable of grinding out results but still struggles with defensive lapses. Their attack has been fairly productive, averaging 1.5 goals in their last ten games, and they’ve shown resilience in games where they had to chase or defend a lead. Notably, their top scorer, N. Amiri, with 7 goals, remains a key threat, especially when exploiting spaces created by Lee Jae-Sung’s creative flair.

Augsburg’s pattern—WWDDL—reflects a side that’s tough to beat but can be inconsistent. Their attack, averaging just 1 goal in their last ten outings, has been underwhelming at times, but F. Rieder and M. Kömür remain dangerous on the counter and set pieces. Their defensive record, allowing 1.3 goals per game and securing 3 clean sheets in their last ten matches, shows a team that can tighten up but sometimes lacks consistency to keep opposition at bay.

Strategic Breakdown: Formations and Tactical Approach

Both teams tend to line up in a 3-4-2-1 formation, emphasizing midfield control and flexible wing play. Mainz’s approach generally revolves around quick transitions and exploiting the flanks, with S. Bell providing width and pace. Their attack is slightly more potent, with a focus on getting Amiri into goal-scoring positions—evidenced by his 7 goals. Defensively, Mainz’s recent lapses have cost them, but their home record provides hope they’ll tighten up this weekend.

Augsburg, meanwhile, look to impose control through disciplined midfield structure, using their wingers M. Kömür and D. Giannoulis to stretch the play. Their defensive shape, while sometimes shaky, can be resilient when they sit deep and counterattack—potentially targeting Mainz’s full-backs. Augsburg’s offensive output depends heavily on set pieces and quick counter moves, which could be dangerous if Mainz commits too many forward.

Players Who Could Decide the Outcome

  • For Mainz: N. Amiri—his scoring threat and creative spark make him essential. Expect him to be central in breaking defensive lines or finishing off counter-attack opportunities.
  • Lee Jae-Sung: The South Korean midfielder’s dual role in attack and transition offers unpredictability, and he’s vital for Mainz’s link-up play.
  • S. Bell: His pace on the flank can stretch Augsburg’s defense and create scoring chances from wide positions.
  • For Augsburg: F. Rieder, whose 3 goals and 2 assists demonstrate his importance in offensive set-ups, especially in tight matches.
  • M. Kömür: Playmaker with 3 assists; his ability to unlock defenses with precise passes can turn the game in Augsburg’s favor.
  • D. Giannoulis: His defensive solidity combined with offensive forays via set pieces can be a danger for Mainz.

Looking Back: Trends and Patterns in the Head-to-Head

Over the last decade, Mainz has enjoyed a slight edge in head-to-head encounters—winning 6 of the last 10 meetings, with only 3 going Augsburg’s way. The scorelines have often been high-scoring affairs, with goals shared among both sides in most fixtures. Notably, Mainz’s dominant 4-1 victory in September 2025 indicates they can, on their day, dismantle Augsburg—though the 0-0 stalemate from February 2025 underlines their capacity to cancel each other out.

Recent matches have favored Mainz, but Augsburg’s resilience and history of scoring in most encounters suggest this game will follow that trend—expect goals from both sides, especially given the statistical propensities of the last few matches.

Betting Market Insights: Values and Opportunities

Bookmakers currently price Mainz as strong favorites for victory at 1.5 odds, with an implied probability of 48.4%. Augsburg’s odds for an away win stand at 2.45 (29.6%), reflecting the potential for an upset, but also acknowledging Mainz’s slight edge.

The draw at 3.3 (22%) appears unlikely given the recent form and head-to-head history but remains a viable hedge. The Asian handicap markets, with Mainz at -0.5 (2.0) and Augsburg +0.5 (1.83), offer more nuanced options, especially considering Mainz’s home advantage and their recent offensive output.

Over/Under 2.5 goals are set at roughly 1.85 for over, with a 52% implied probability. Considering both teams’ goal-scoring tendencies and defensive frailties, betting on over 2.5 goals offers solid value.

Both teams to score is priced around 1.73, matching their historical BTTS rate—this remains a compelling bet, especially since recent clashes have shown they can both find the net.

Predictions: The Path to Victory and Key Factors

Given the data and recent form, I lean towards Mainz clinching a narrow but impactful victory—probably 2-1—especially considering their superior home record and attacking edge. Their offensive talents, notably Amiri’s goal threat and their creative midfield, will likely exploit Augsburg’s sometimes leaky defense.

Confidence in this prediction rests at around 60%, rooted in Mainz’s slightly better form, home advantage, and the ability to capitalize on Augsburg’s defensive vulnerabilities. The game is expected to be open, with both teams scoring—a 56% chance according to our odds analysis—and over 2.5 goals to land in around half of the cases.

From a betting perspective, the best value lies in backing Mainz to win combined with over 2.5 goals, especially since the odds align well with the game’s statistical profile. The typical pattern of high-scoring games between these sides supports a lively contest.

Final Verdict: Clearer Paths for Bettors

  • Primary Bet: Mainz to win at 1.5 (strong confidence)
  • Secondary Play: Over 2.5 goals at odds around 1.85—good value given the attacking stats and recent trends
  • Alternative Option: Both teams to score—yes at around 1.73—aligns with their recent goal-scoring habits and head-to-head history

While Augsburg’s resilience and potential to spoil the party shouldn’t be discounted, Mainz’s home advantage, offensive potency, and the statistical likelihood of goals make them the favorite to edge this encounter. Expect a match rich in attacking intent, with the possibility of a narrow Mainz victory and a lively, goal-filled spectacle at the Mewa Arena.

Additional Information

FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05

Top Scorers

N. Amiri
N. AmiriMidfielder
7Goals
Lee Jae-Sung
Lee Jae-SungAttacker
2Goals
S. Bell
S. BellDefender
2Goals
S. Widmer
S. WidmerDefender
2Goals
A. Sieb
A. SiebAttacker
2Goals

Top Assists

N. Amiri
N. AmiriMidfielder
2Assists
Lee Jae-Sung
Lee Jae-SungAttacker
2Assists
B. Hollerbach
B. HollerbachAttacker
2Assists
S. Bell
S. BellDefender
1Assists
D. da Costa
D. da CostaDefender
1Assists

Cards

D. Kohr
D. KohrDefender
61
N. Amiri
N. AmiriMidfielder
50
S. Bell
S. BellDefender
40
S. Widmer
S. WidmerDefender
40
P. Nebel
P. NebelAttacker
22
FC AugsburgFC Augsburg

Top Scorers

F. Rieder
F. RiederAttacker
3Goals
M. Kömür
M. KömürAttacker
2Goals
D. Giannoulis
D. GiannoulisMidfielder
2Goals
A. Claude-Maurice
A. Claude-MauriceMidfielder
2Goals
H. Massengo
H. MassengoMidfielder
2Goals

Top Assists

M. Kömür
M. KömürAttacker
3Assists
D. Giannoulis
D. GiannoulisMidfielder
3Assists
F. Rieder
F. RiederAttacker
2Assists
A. Claude-Maurice
A. Claude-MauriceMidfielder
2Assists
H. Massengo
H. MassengoMidfielder
1Assists

Cards

Noahkai Kai Daniel Banks
Noahkai Kai Daniel BanksDefender
60
D. Giannoulis
D. GiannoulisMidfielder
50
C. Matsima
C. MatsimaDefender
50
E. Rexhbeçaj
E. RexhbeçajMidfielder
40
K. Schlotterbeck
K. SchlotterbeckDefender
40

Detailed Form & Recent Matches

FSV Mainz 05
WDDDD
10Played
4Wins
4Draws
2Losses
Points/Game1.6
Win %40%
Goals/Game2.6
Scored Avg1.4
Conceded Avg1.2
BTTS60%
Clean Sheets30%
Failed to Score20%

Recent Matches

15 MarWat Werder Bremen2-0
12 MarDat Sigma Olomouc0-0
7 MarDvs VfB Stuttgart2-2
28 FebDat Bayer Leverkusen1-1
20 FebDvs Hamburger SV1-1
FC Augsburg
LLWWW
10Played
5Wins
2Draws
3Losses
Points/Game1.7
Win %50%
Goals/Game2.7
Scored Avg1.4
Conceded Avg1.3
BTTS60%
Clean Sheets20%
Failed to Score20%

Recent Matches

14 MarLat Borussia Dortmund0-2
7 MarLat RB Leipzig1-2
27 FebWvs 1. FC Köln2-0
21 FebWat VfL Wolfsburg3-2
15 FebWvs 1. FC Heidenheim1-0

Head to Head History

Betting Statistics

MetricValue
Total Matches11
Average Goals2.91
BTTS64%
Over 2.5 Goals64%
Over 1.5 Goals73%

Goals by Team

TeamTotalAverage
FSV Mainz 05211.91 per game
FC Augsburg111 per game

Clean Sheets

TeamClean Sheets
FSV Mainz 053 (27%)
FC Augsburg2 (18%)
7 Feb 2026BundesligaFSV Mainz 052-0FC Augsburg
20 Sept 2025BundesligaFC Augsburg1-4FSV Mainz 05
8 Feb 2025BundesligaFSV Mainz 050-0FC Augsburg
20 Sept 2024BundesligaFC Augsburg2-3FSV Mainz 05
17 Feb 2024BundesligaFSV Mainz 051-0FC Augsburg
23 Sept 2023BundesligaFC Augsburg2-1FSV Mainz 05
11 Feb 2023BundesligaFSV Mainz 053-1FC Augsburg
20 Aug 2022BundesligaFC Augsburg1-2FSV Mainz 05
6 Apr 2022BundesligaFC Augsburg2-1FSV Mainz 05
22 Oct 2021BundesligaFSV Mainz 054-1FC Augsburg
28 Feb 2021BundesligaFSV Mainz 050-1FC Augsburg