SpainSpain
Segunda DivisiónSegunda División
Round 25

Leganes vs Granada CF Prediction & Betting Tips

Leganes

Leganes

18th34 pts
6 Feb 2026
1-0
Full Time
Granada CF

Granada CF

15th36 pts
Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Leganes
Correct
Our #1 Pick
Total Goals
Under 2.5
@ 1.54
1 : 0
FT

Betting Tips

42%
28%
29%
LeganesDrawGranada CF
Match Result
Home Win
@ 1.99
42%
Both Teams to Score
No
@ 1.74
54%
Double Chance
Home/Draw
@ 1.30
36%
Asian Handicap
AH Home -0.50
@ 2.12
47%
Half Time
Draw
@ 1.85
46%
HT/FT
Draw/Home
@ 5.00
20.0%
Correct Score
1:0
@ 5.25
19.0%

Additional Markets

Total Corners
Under 9.5
@ 1.60
57.7%
Odds updated hourly from bookmakers
Predictions recalculated every 2 hours
Locked 2 hours before kickoff

Expert Analysis

David Coleman
David Coleman Senior Football Analyst
75% 20+ yrs
6 min read

Leganes vs Granada CF: A Tactician's Clash Under the Floodlights The spotlight shines brightest on the Estadio Municipal de Butarque this Friday evening, as two equally desperate teams in the Segunda División eye crucial points. But beyond the standi...

Read Full Analysis

Match Facts

Leganes
Leganes have received 4 red cards in 30 matches this season
Leganes score 32% of their goals after the 75th minute (10 goals)
Leganes concede 31% of goals after the 75th minute (10 goals)
Leganes have missed 2 of 5 penalties this season (60% conversion)
Leganes have lost 6 of 14 home matches (43%)
Leganes failed to score in 11 of 30 matches (37%)
Granada CF
Granada CF have received 5 red cards in 29 matches this season
Granada CF score 61% of their goals in the first half
Granada CF failed to score in 10 of 29 matches (34%)

Key Statistics

Leganes5
1Draws
2Granada CF
1.13Avg Goals
0%BTTS
0%Over 2.5
6 Feb 2026Leganes1-0Granada CF
14 Sept 2025Granada CF0-2Leganes
27 May 2023Granada CF2-0Leganes
27 Nov 2022Leganes1-0Granada CF
22 Jun 2020Leganes0-0Granada CF
View all H2H matches

Betting Odds

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet1.573.002.25
188Bet2.312.953.25
1xBet2.353.063.45

Full Match Analysis

David Coleman
David Coleman
Senior Football Analyst
75% Accuracy
20+ Years Experience
5.5k Predictions

Leganes vs Granada CF: A Tactician's Clash Under the Floodlights

The spotlight shines brightest on the Estadio Municipal de Butarque this Friday evening, as two equally desperate teams in the Segunda División eye crucial points. But beyond the standings and stats, this encounter could hinge on a singular player capable of turning the tide—an intriguing subplot that adds layers to a game already brimming with tactical chess.

Setting the Scene: Stakes and Stories

Both Leganes and Granada CF find themselves in a delicate balancing act—hovering just beneath the playoff zone, yet not quite safe from the perils of relegation. Each side has 29 points, separated primarily by goal difference, but more telling is their recent form and tactical evolution. For Leganes, the victory against Granada in September hints at their potential to upset the visitors, but recent results suggest consistency remains elusive.

This fixture is more than a schedule entry; it offers an opportunity for either side to gain tangible momentum or suffer a setback in their league aspirations. The hosts, fighting to sustain their push, will lean heavily on their home advantage, while Granada, with its mix of experience and youth, aims to soft-pedal the pressure and extract a point or three.

Momentum and Morale: Recent Trends

Leganes' Fluctuating Form

Over the last five matches, Leganes' record reads W-L-L-W-W. That sequence shows resilience but also vulnerabilities—particularly defensively, conceding an average of 1.2 goals per game. Their attack, averaging 1.3 goals, is capable but inconsistent. Notably, their 50% BTTS rate underscores a tendency for both sides to find the net, but their clean sheet rate of 30% suggests defensive lapses remain an issue.

Granada's Rollercoaster Ride

Granada's recent form of WWDDL points to a team in flux—capable of streaks of good play but also inconsistent results. Their goals scored per match (0.9) lag slightly behind Leganes, while their conceded figure (1 per game) indicates vulnerabilities at the back. The 50% BTTS rate and 40% clean sheets reveal a team that can be unpredictable but often tightly contested—highlighting both their offensive potential and defensive resilience.

Strategic Preview: Tactics in Play

Leganes' Approach: Structured and Balanced

Operating in a 4-4-2 formation, Leganes emphasizes solidity and directness. Their style leans on width and crossing, with Álex Millán serving as a key outlet in attack. Their focus is on maintaining compact defensive lines while seeking quick transitions, especially utilizing Diego García’s spatial awareness. The home crowd and familiar surroundings likely encourage an energetic, disciplined approach aimed at exploiting Granada’s defensive frailties.

Granada's Gameplan: Flexibility and Creativity

Granada typically lines up in a 4-3-3, prioritizing possession and quick interplay. Jorge Pascual and Pedro Alemañ are tasked with unlocking tight defenses, using their agility and vision. Their midfield's hybrid nature accommodates both control and counterattack, aiming to capitalize on any lapses from Leganes. Defensive organization will be key—stopping the supply lines to Leganes' forwards could be decisive in nullifying their attacking threat.

Key Men: Players Who Might Decide This One

Leganes' Potential Difference Makers

  • Álex Millán: The talisman with five goals, his movement and finishing could be pivotal in breaking Granada’s defensive lines.
  • Diego García: His 4-goal tally and assist potential make him a threat in set pieces and open play alike.
  • Roberto López: A versatile attacker capable of linking play and finding spaces behind the opposition backline.

Granada CF's Key Influencers

  • Pedro Alemañ: Leading scorer with five goals, his quickness and instinct could be the difference in tight moments.
  • Jorge Pascual: His ability to create from the flanks and set up teammates adds a creative dimension.
  • José Arnáiz: An experienced forward who operates smartly in tight spaces, exploiting defensive lapses.

Head-to-Head Patterns and Recent Encounters

Looking back at their seven most recent meetings, Leganes has held the upper hand, winning four times, including a convincing 2-0 at home last September. Notably, their matches tend to be low scoring, with an average of just over one goal per game and a surprisingly sterile recent history of no BTTS in their meetings.

The pattern suggests a cautious tactical battle, with Leganes often having the edge at home—an advantage they might try to leverage again. Granada, however, has shown resilience in their away fixtures—winning two of the last three away encounters—meaning they are not easily overrun.

The Betting Framework: Odds, Probabilities, and Value

  • Match Winner: Home 1.53, Draw 3, Away 2.4
  • Implied Probabilities: Home ~46.6%, Draw ~23.7%, Away ~29.7%
  • Double Chance: 1X at 1.29 (~77.5%), 12 at 1.36 (~73.5%), X2 at 1.67 (~59.9%)
  • Asian Handicap: Home +0 at 1.53, Away +0 at 2.5, Home -0.25 at 1.89, Away -0.25 at 2.01
  • Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Likely leaning under with a 60% confidence, supported by low average goals in past meetings.
  • BTTS: Odds suggest a roughly 47-50% chance, matching recent trends but with some caution due to head-to-head stats showing zero BTTS in recent matches.

Given the data, the odds favor a tight, low-scoring game where either team might edge a narrow victory or settle for a draw. The value appears to be in the under 2.5 goals market, considering the historical low scorers and recent results.

Personalized Prediction and Final Verdict

Considering the tactical tendencies, recent form, historical patterns, and betting odds, the most plausible outcome is a close, low-scoring affair. Leganes's home advantage and slightly better recent momentum tip the scales in their favor, but Granada’s resilience means a draw is a strong possibility.

Our confidence level assigns a 43% probability to a Leganes win, supported by their home form and head-to-head dominance. The under 2.5 goals market, with a 60% confidence level, aligns with the low-scoring nature of both teams and their recent encounters. We also see a modest edge in betting against both teams scoring, given the 53% confidence, which resonates with the previous no BTTS trend in head-to-head clashes.

Best Bets Summary

  • Leganes to win (1): Reasonable value at 1.53, considering their home advantage and recent dominance.
  • Under 2.5 goals: Favorable at 1.70, with a 60% implied probability, matching historical scoring patterns.
  • Both Teams to Not Score (No BTTS): Slightly favorable, aligning with recent head-to-head stats.

This match promises to be a tactical tug-of-war, where discipline and key moments could decide the outcome. While a draw remains highly plausible, the slight edge favors Leganes to eke out a narrow, possibly low-scoring victory, with the under 2.5 goals market offering good value for punters looking for a controlled, cautious game.

Additional Information

LeganesLeganes

Top Scorers

Álex Millán
Álex MillánAttacker
5Goals
Diego García
Diego GarcíaAttacker
4Goals
Roberto López
Roberto LópezMidfielder
3Goals
Naim García
Naim GarcíaMidfielder
2Goals
Duk
DukMidfielder
2Goals

Top Assists

Naim García
Naim GarcíaMidfielder
2Assists
Rubén Peña
Rubén PeñaDefender
2Assists
Diego García
Diego GarcíaAttacker
1Assists
Roberto López
Roberto LópezMidfielder
1Assists
Duk
DukMidfielder
1Assists

Cards

A. Diawara
A. DiawaraMidfielder
80
Marvel
MarvelDefender
71
Miguel de la Fuente
Miguel de la FuenteAttacker
50
Lalo Aguilar
Lalo AguilarDefender
50
Álex Millán
Álex MillánAttacker
40
Granada CFGranada CF

Top Scorers

Pedro Alemañ
Pedro AlemañMidfielder
5Goals
Jorge Pascual
Jorge PascualAttacker
5Goals
José Arnáiz
José ArnáizMidfielder
4Goals
S. Faye
S. FayeMidfielder
2Goals
Álex Sola
Álex SolaDefender
2Goals

Top Assists

S. Faye
S. FayeMidfielder
6Assists
Pedro Alemañ
Pedro AlemañMidfielder
2Assists
Álex Sola
Álex SolaDefender
1Assists
Rubén Alcaraz
Rubén AlcarazMidfielder
1Assists
Manu Lama
Manu LamaDefender
1Assists

Cards

Rubén Alcaraz
Rubén AlcarazMidfielder
60
O. Naasei
O. NaaseiDefender
60
B. Diallo
B. DialloDefender
50
Jorge Pascual
Jorge PascualAttacker
40
Sergio Ruiz
Sergio RuizMidfielder
40

Detailed Form & Recent Matches

Leganes
LLDDL
10Played
3Wins
2Draws
5Losses
Points/Game1.1
Win %30%
Goals/Game2.2
Scored Avg1.1
Conceded Avg1.1
BTTS40%
Clean Sheets40%
Failed to Score30%

Recent Matches

14 MarLat Valladolid2-3
8 MarLvs Eibar0-1
2 MarDat Sporting Gijon0-0
21 FebDvs Cultural Leonesa1-1
14 FebLat Cordoba1-2
Granada CF
DWLLW
10Played
4Wins
3Draws
3Losses
Points/Game1.5
Win %40%
Goals/Game1.9
Scored Avg1.2
Conceded Avg0.7
BTTS40%
Clean Sheets40%
Failed to Score40%

Recent Matches

15 MarDvs FC Andorra1-1
8 MarWat Deportivo La Coruna2-0
28 FebLvs Malaga0-1
20 FebLat AD Ceuta FC1-2
14 FebWvs Valladolid5-1

Head to Head History

Betting Statistics

MetricValue
Total Matches8
Average Goals1.13
BTTS0%
Over 2.5 Goals0%
Over 1.5 Goals25%

Goals by Team

TeamTotalAverage
Leganes60.75 per game
Granada CF30.38 per game

Clean Sheets

TeamClean Sheets
Leganes6 (75%)
Granada CF3 (38%)
6 Feb 2026Segunda DivisiónLeganes1-0Granada CF
14 Sept 2025Segunda DivisiónGranada CF0-2Leganes
27 May 2023Segunda DivisiónGranada CF2-0Leganes
27 Nov 2022Segunda DivisiónLeganes1-0Granada CF
22 Jun 2020La LigaLeganes0-0Granada CF
28 Sept 2019La LigaGranada CF1-0Leganes
4 Mar 2017La LigaLeganes1-0Granada CF
1 Oct 2016La LigaGranada CF0-1Leganes