BulgariaBulgaria
First LeagueFirst League
Round 21

Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna Prediction & Betting Tips

15 Feb 2026
1-1
Full Time
Stadion Lokomotiv, Plovdiv
Incorrect
Our #1 Pick
Asian Handicap
AH Away -0.25
@ 1.44
1 : 1
FT

Betting Tips

32%
29%
39%
Lokomotiv PlovdivDrawCherno More Varna
Match Result
Away Win
@ 2.16
39%
Both Teams to Score
No
@ 1.74
53%
Double Chance
Draw/Away
@ 1.35
34%
Asian Handicap
AH Away -0.25
@ 1.44
69%
Half Time
Draw
@ 1.82
47%
HT/FT
Draw/Away
@ 5.30
18.9%
Correct Score
0:1
@ 5.50
18.2%

Additional Markets

Total Corners
Under 9.5
@ 1.60
57.7%
Anytime Goalscorer
Georgi Lazarov
32.3%@ 3.10
Celso Sidnei
30.8%@ 3.25
Jorge Padilla
30.8%@ 3.25
Mariyan Vangelov
28.6%@ 3.50
Dimitar Iliev
28.6%@ 3.50
Joel Zwarts
28.6%@ 3.50
Odds updated hourly from bookmakers
Predictions recalculated every 2 hours
Locked 2 hours before kickoff

Expert Analysis

David Coleman
David Coleman Senior Football Analyst
75% 20+ yrs
6 min read

Clash of the Midtable Titans: Lokomotiv Plovdiv Hosts Cherno More Varna in a Crucial Bulgaria First League Encounter As the Bulgarian First League continues to unfold with its characteristic intensity, one fixture stands out on the horizon: Lokomotiv...

Read Full Analysis

Match Facts

Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Lokomotiv Plovdiv have gone 4 league matches without a win
Lokomotiv Plovdiv score 35% of their goals after the 75th minute (9 goals)
Lokomotiv Plovdiv concede 35% of goals after the 75th minute (9 goals)
Lokomotiv Plovdiv have received 3 red cards in 24 matches this season
Lokomotiv Plovdiv have won just 2 of 12 away matches this season
Lokomotiv Plovdiv average 3.1 yellow cards per game (74 in 24 matches)
Cherno More Varna
Cherno More Varna have kept 3 consecutive clean sheets
Cherno More Varna concede just 0.68 goals per game (17 in 25)
Cherno More Varna have kept 12 clean sheets in 25 matches (48%)
Cherno More Varna have kept 7 clean sheets in 12 home games (58%)
Cherno More Varna failed to score in 8 of 25 matches (32%)

Key Statistics

Lokomotiv Plovdiv6
6Draws
7Cherno More Varna
2.26Avg Goals
58%BTTS
47%Over 2.5
15 Feb 2026Lokomotiv Plovdiv1-1Cherno More Varna
23 Aug 2025Cherno More Varna1-1Lokomotiv Plovdiv
8 Feb 2025Cherno More Varna1-2Lokomotiv Plovdiv
19 Aug 2024Lokomotiv Plovdiv1-2Cherno More Varna
28 Apr 2024Cherno More Varna1-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv
View all H2H matches

Betting Odds

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet2.052.851.70
188Bet2.872.882.36
1xBet3.082.842.52

Full Match Analysis

David Coleman
David Coleman
Senior Football Analyst
75% Accuracy
20+ Years Experience
5.5k Predictions

Clash of the Midtable Titans: Lokomotiv Plovdiv Hosts Cherno More Varna in a Crucial Bulgaria First League Encounter

As the Bulgarian First League continues to unfold with its characteristic intensity, one fixture stands out on the horizon: Lokomotiv Plovdiv welcoming Cherno More Varna at Stadion Lokomotiv. Both sides are nestled comfortably in the midtable, yet each harbors ambitions of pushing further up the standings. With just two points separating them and a series of closely contested battles in recent history, this match promises to be a revealing chapter in their league campaigns.

Contextual Significance: More Than Just Three Points

This fixture isn’t simply about adding another victory to the tally; it’s a pivotal moment for both teams seeking stability and momentum. Lokomotiv Plovdiv, sitting sixth with 32 points, are eager to solidify their place in the upper half after a mixed run of results. Cherno More, just ahead in fourth with 34 points, look to protect their continental ambitions and close the gap on the top three. A win here could serve as a springboard, while a draw might reinforce the current status quo in a highly competitive league segment.

Current Forms and Recent Momentum

Examining their last five matches reveals intriguing patterns. Lokomotiv Plovdiv has experienced a slight wobble with a record of three wins, one draw, and one loss—producing an overall form of WWWLL. Their attacking output averages 1.3 goals per game, while their defensive solidity is notable, conceding just 0.7 on average, leading to clean sheets in half of their recent fixtures.

Cherno More, on the other hand, have displayed a bit more resilience under pressure, with four wins and three draws. Their form reads DLWWL, indicating some inconsistency but also a capacity to grind out results. Their goal-scoring rate matches Plovdiv at 1.3 goals per game but have conceded slightly more at 1.2, reflected in their lower clean sheet tally of just two in ten matches.

Strategic Outlook: Tactical Trends and Expected Approaches

Given the team compositions and general tactical tendencies, Lokomotiv Plovdiv likely favor a balanced 4-2-3-1, emphasizing territorial control and quick counters. Their attacking trident, featuring J. Lamy and D. Iliev, will be tasked with penetrating Cherno More’s slightly porous defense.

Cherno More, under their typical 4-4-2 or 4-3-3 formation, tend to prioritize structured buildup and disciplined defensive organization, aiming to exploit set-pieces and counterattacks. Their reliance on top scorer G. Lazarov, who has netted four times this season, could be pivotal if they find gaps in Plovdiv’s backline.

Key Players Poised to Influence the Outcome

  • Lokomotiv Plovdiv:
    • J. Perea: With three goals to his name, Perea’s movement and finishing could be decisive in breaking through Cherno More’s defensive blocks.
    • J. Lamy: A versatile winger with two goals and two assists, Lamy's creative spark can unlock tightly packed defenses.
    • D. Iliev: His ability to drop deep and orchestrate plays makes him vital for transitioning possession into attacking opportunities.
  • Cherno More:
    • G. Lazarov: The team's top scorer, Lazarov’s clinical finishing will be crucial to exploiting any defensive lapses.
    • N. Zlatev: Known for his work rate and physical presence, he can disrupt Plovdiv’s rhythm and initiate counters.
    • Celso Sidney: The Brazilian midfielder offers flair and technical skill, capable of creating scoring chances from midfield.

Head-to-Head Trends and Historical Insights

In their last 18 encounters, both sides have shown a finely balanced rivalry, with Lokomotiv Plovdiv holding 6 wins, Cherno More claiming 7, and five draws. The overall goals per game hover around 2.28, with a BTTS (Both Teams To Score) rate of 56%, highlighting the competitive nature of their meetings.

Recent fixtures have been tightly contested:

  • 2025-08-23: Cherno More 1-1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv
  • 2025-02-08: Cherno More 1-2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv
  • 2024-08-19: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-2 Cherno More
  • 2024-04-28: Cherno More 1-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv
  • 2024-04-08: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-0 Cherno More
The last five meetings suggest a pattern of closely fought battles, often decided by narrow margins, with both teams capable of producing goals and defensive lapses.

Betting Market Breakdown and Value Identification

Bookmakers offer the following odds:

  • Match Winner (1X2): Home (Lokomotiv Plovdiv) 1.95, Draw 2.75, Away (Cherno More) 1.75
  • Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Likely leaning towards under at around 1.70 for under, with over at roughly 2.05
  • BTTS (Yes/No): No at approximately 1.90, Yes at 1.85
  • Double Chance: 1X at 1.44, 12 at 1.4, X2 at 1.36
  • Asian Handicap: Home +0 at 2.08, Away +0 at 1.76
Implied probabilities derived from these odds provide a clear picture:
  • Home win: ~35.4%
  • Draw: ~25.1%
  • Away win: ~39.5%
This suggests a slight edge for Cherno More, with the market factoring in their recent form and head-to-head resilience.

Predictions Backed by Data and Trends

Given the combined analysis of recent performance, head-to-head patterns, and tactical setups, the most plausible outcome gravitates towards a narrow away victory or a tightly contested draw. The data indicates a 38% confidence in away win, while the under 2.5 goals and no BTTS scenarios also hold weight based on goal averages and defensive records.

**Probability of an Away Win (Cherno More):** 38%—a plausible outcome, especially considering their slightly superior form and recent head-to-head consistency.

**Total Goals:** Under 2.5, with a 62% confidence, aligns with the defensive strength of Plovdiv and Cherno More’s disciplined approach.

**Both Teams Score:** No, with 54% confidence, supported by the lower clean sheet percentage for Cherno More (20%) but also their solid defensive record at home in recent fixtures.

**Double Chance (X2):** Slightly favored at 34% confidence, reflecting the close nature of their clashes and the odds market’s valuation.

Final Verdict: Strategic Wagering and Best Bets

Considering all factors, the most compelling bet is on the away win at 1.75, given the implied probability (~57%) slightly favoring Cherno More but acknowledging the value in the odds, especially if you factor in their recent form and historical resilience. The under 2.5 goals bet offers a solid value with a 62% confidence level due to defensive solidity and cautious tactical setups.

While a draw remains a plausible outcome, especially in such evenly matched sides, the odds suggest less value here unless you seek a safer, risk-balanced option with the double chance (X2) at 1.36.

In Summary: The Edge Lies With Cherno More

Expect a tense, tightly fought game with limited goal-scoring opportunities, where Cherno More’s slightly sturdier recent form and winning record in head-to-head encounters give them a marginal edge. The predicted scoreline leans toward a 1-1 or a narrow away victory, with under 2.5 goals and no BTTS being the most statistically supported bets.

This match could define the next phase of the league’s midtable shuffle, with both clubs eager to demonstrate resilience and tactical discipline in a fiercely fought contest.

Additional Information

Lokomotiv PlovdivLokomotiv Plovdiv

Top Scorers

J. Perea
J. PereaAttacker
3Goals
J. Lamy
J. LamyMidfielder
2Goals
D. Iliev
D. IlievAttacker
2Goals
Adrián Cova
Adrián CovaDefender
2Goals
Lucas Ryan
Lucas RyanDefender
2Goals

Top Assists

J. Lamy
J. LamyMidfielder
2Assists
D. Iliev
D. IlievAttacker
1Assists
P. Umarbayev
P. UmarbayevMidfielder
1Assists
P. Andreev
P. AndreevAttacker
1Assists
I. Ivanov
I. IvanovMidfielder
1Assists

Cards

Adrián Cova
Adrián CovaDefender
70
C. Itu
C. ItuMidfielder
70
M. Ruskov
M. RuskovDefender
50
E. Espinoza
E. EspinozaDefender
50
J. Perea
J. PereaAttacker
40
Cherno More VarnaCherno More Varna

Top Scorers

G. Lazarov
G. LazarovAttacker
4Goals
N. Zlatev
N. ZlatevMidfielder
3Goals
Celso Sidney
Celso SidneyAttacker
2Goals
A. Chandarov
A. ChandarovAttacker
1Goals
V. Panayotov
V. PanayotovMidfielder
1Goals

Top Assists

A. Chandarov
A. ChandarovAttacker
1Assists
V. Panayotov
V. PanayotovMidfielder
1Assists
A. Donchev
A. DonchevDefender
1Assists
David Teles
David TelesMidfielder
1Assists
M. Milushev
M. MilushevMidfielder
1Assists

Cards

N. Zlatev
N. ZlatevMidfielder
40
V. Drobarov
V. DrobarovDefender
40
A. Donchev
A. DonchevDefender
30
David Teles
David TelesMidfielder
30
Alberto Martín
Alberto MartínDefender
30

Detailed Form & Recent Matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv
WLLDD
10Played
4Wins
3Draws
3Losses
Points/Game1.5
Win %40%
Goals/Game2.2
Scored Avg1.1
Conceded Avg1.1
BTTS30%
Clean Sheets40%
Failed to Score30%

Recent Matches

13 MarWvs Septemvri Sofia1-0
9 MarLat Levski Sofia0-1
5 MarLvs CSKA 19480-5
2 MarDat Ludogorets1-1
21 FebDvs Spartak Varna1-1
Cherno More Varna
WWDLD
10Played
4Wins
4Draws
2Losses
Points/Game1.6
Win %40%
Goals/Game1.7
Scored Avg1
Conceded Avg0.7
BTTS30%
Clean Sheets60%
Failed to Score40%

Recent Matches

15 MarWvs Montana1-0
7 MarWat Septemvri Sofia3-0
4 MarDvs Arda Kardzhali0-0
28 FebLat Dobrudzha1-2
20 FebDvs Botev Vratsa0-0

Head to Head History

Betting Statistics

MetricValue
Total Matches19
Average Goals2.26
BTTS58%
Over 2.5 Goals47%
Over 1.5 Goals74%

Goals by Team

TeamTotalAverage
Lokomotiv Plovdiv201.05 per game
Cherno More Varna231.21 per game

Clean Sheets

TeamClean Sheets
Lokomotiv Plovdiv5 (26%)
Cherno More Varna5 (26%)
15 Feb 2026First LeagueLokomotiv Plovdiv1-1Cherno More Varna
23 Aug 2025First LeagueCherno More Varna1-1Lokomotiv Plovdiv
8 Feb 2025First LeagueCherno More Varna1-2Lokomotiv Plovdiv
19 Aug 2024First LeagueLokomotiv Plovdiv1-2Cherno More Varna
28 Apr 2024First LeagueCherno More Varna1-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv
8 Apr 2024First LeagueLokomotiv Plovdiv1-0Cherno More Varna
7 Oct 2023First LeagueCherno More Varna2-2Lokomotiv Plovdiv
2 Jun 2023First LeagueLokomotiv Plovdiv2-1Cherno More Varna
17 Apr 2023First LeagueCherno More Varna2-1Lokomotiv Plovdiv
3 Dec 2022Bulgarian CupCherno More Varna3-1Lokomotiv Plovdiv
17 Sept 2022First LeagueLokomotiv Plovdiv3-0Cherno More Varna
1 Dec 2021First LeagueLokomotiv Plovdiv1-1Cherno More Varna
16 Aug 2021First LeagueCherno More Varna0-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv
13 Feb 2021First LeagueCherno More Varna0-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv
30 Aug 2020First LeagueLokomotiv Plovdiv2-1Cherno More Varna
29 Oct 2019First LeagueLokomotiv Plovdiv1-0Cherno More Varna
14 Jul 2019First LeagueCherno More Varna3-1Lokomotiv Plovdiv
8 Dec 2018First LeagueCherno More Varna2-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv
24 Aug 2018First LeagueLokomotiv Plovdiv0-2Cherno More Varna