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Liga MXLiga MX
Round 6

Pachuca vs Atlas Prediction & Betting Tips

Pachuca

Pachuca

4th21 pts
14 Feb 2026
3-1
Full Time
Atlas

Atlas

8th17 pts
Estadio Miguel Hidalgo, Pachuca de Soto
Correct
Our #1 Pick
Match Result
Home Win
@ 1.54
3 : 1
FT

Betting Tips

56%
24%
20%
PachucaDrawAtlas
Total Goals
Under 2.5
@ 1.80
53%
Both Teams to Score
No
@ 1.84
51%
Double Chance
Home/Draw
@ 1.16
40%
Asian Handicap
AH Home -0.75
@ 1.86
54%
Half Time
Draw
@ 2.06
41%
HT/FT
Draw/Home
@ 4.30
23.3%
Correct Score
1:0
@ 5.50
18.2%

Additional Markets

Total Corners
Over 9.5
@ 1.80
51.5%
Anytime Goalscorer
Enner Valencia
43.5%@ 2.30
Jhonder Cadiz
40.0%@ 2.50
Daniel Mendez
40.0%@ 2.50
Luis Puente
34.7%@ 2.88
Victor Guzman
33.3%@ 3.00
Luis Quinones
33.3%@ 3.00
Odds updated hourly from bookmakers
Predictions recalculated every 2 hours
Locked 2 hours before kickoff

Expert Analysis

David Coleman
David Coleman Senior Football Analyst
75% 20+ yrs
6 min read

Estadio Miguel Hidalgo Roars with Anticipation as Pachuca Hosts Atlas Under the vibrant lights and the electrifying atmosphere at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo, the roar of passionate fans sets the tone for a pivotal Liga MX clash. Pachuca, playing on home ...

Read Full Analysis

Match Facts

Pachuca
Pachuca have received 9 red cards in 27 matches this season
Pachuca have conceded in each of their last 6 matches
Pachuca have scored all 3 penalties this season
Pachuca failed to score in 10 of 27 matches (37%)
Pachuca scored in the first half in 10 of their last 15 matches (67%)
Pachuca average 2.5 yellow cards per game (67 in 27 matches)
Atlas
Atlas have scored in each of their last 9 matches
Atlas have scored all 10 penalties this season
Atlas have conceded in each of their last 7 matches
Atlas have received 5 red cards in 27 matches this season
Atlas have won just 2 of 13 away matches this season
Atlas scored in the first half in 10 of their last 15 matches (67%)

Key Statistics

Pachuca11
3Draws
5Atlas
2.26Avg Goals
32%BTTS
37%Over 2.5
14 Feb 2026Pachuca3-1Atlas
10 Aug 2025Atlas0-3Pachuca
2 Feb 2025Pachuca0-0Atlas
14 Sept 2024Atlas2-0Pachuca
1 Feb 2024Pachuca4-3Atlas
View all H2H matches

Betting Odds

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet1.283.553.40
188Bet1.753.604.35
1xBet1.723.524.82

Full Match Analysis

David Coleman
David Coleman
Senior Football Analyst
75% Accuracy
20+ Years Experience
5.5k Predictions

Estadio Miguel Hidalgo Roars with Anticipation as Pachuca Hosts Atlas

Under the vibrant lights and the electrifying atmosphere at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo, the roar of passionate fans sets the tone for a pivotal Liga MX clash. Pachuca, playing on home soil, hopes the fervor and familiarity will give them an edge as they aim to solidify their position in the standings. With a fervent crowd backing them, the Tuzos are eager to leverage their home advantage in what promises to be a fiercely contested encounter against Atlas, a team that has shown resilience and attacking flair this season.

Setting the Stage: A Clash of Mid-Table Aspirants

While both teams are perched comfortably within the mid-tier of the Liga MX table, their recent trajectories reveal contrasting nuances. Pachuca, sitting in 7th place with 8 points, have experienced a mixture of results — winning just twice in their last five outings but maintaining a solid defensive record, evidenced by three clean sheets. Atlas, a shade ahead in 6th place with 10 points, has demonstrated slightly more consistency with three wins and only one draw in their last ten games. Their attacking output remains similar, but defensive vulnerabilities have cost them at times.

This fixture carries weight beyond just three points; it’s a statement of intent for both sides seeking to propel themselves into the upper echelons of the league and showcase their resilience ahead of more challenging fixtures.

Momentum and Form: The Scales Tip Slightly in Atlas’s Favor

Recent form paints a nuanced picture. Pachuca’s last five matches show a pattern of mixed results — three wins, a pair of defeats, and some inconsistency in attack and defense. Their goals scored average is modest at 0.9 per game, with conceding roughly the same, reflecting a team that is often tight at the back but struggles to convert chances.

Atlas, on the other hand, has secured four wins in their last five with a solitary draw, demonstrating a marginally more stable form. Their attacking statistics are similar at 0.9 goals per match but have conceded slightly more at 1.4, hinting at defensive lapses that could be exploited. Their recent confidence, coupled with a more potent recent run, suggests they may carry an edge heading into this encounter.

Tactical Blueprints: Formations and Approaches

Pachuca, operating primarily with a 4-2-3-1, appear to rely on a balanced approach that combines disciplined defending with quick counterattacks. Their key players, such as E. Valencia and Kenedy, are pivotal in breaking down defenses and providing outlet options. Expect them to adopt an organized shape, sitting deep and seeking to capitalize on counter opportunities, especially given their home advantage.

Atlas, deploying a 5-4-1 formation, emphasizes solidity at the back but is capable of launching rapid transitions through D. González and M. García. The tactical setup suggests they’ll prioritize defensive compactness, possibly looking to hit on the break or set-piece opportunities. U. Đurđević, their prolific scorer, will likely be the main focal point in attack, aiming to pierce Pachuca’s defensive line.

Key Players to Watch: Impact Makers for Both Sides

  • Pachuca: E. Valencia — The top scorer with 4 goals, his movement and clinical finishing could be decisive in unlocking tight defenses.
  • Pachuca: Kenedy — Another prolific goal scorer, his versatility and dribbling ability make him a constant threat.
  • Pachuca: J. Cádiz — With 3 goals and 3 assists, his creative playmaking offers an additional dimension to Pachuca’s attack.
  • Atlas: U. Đurđević — The standout with 9 goals, he’s Atlas’s primary goal-scoring outlet and a constant danger inside the box.
  • Atlas: D. González — With goals and assists, his role as a midfielder-box-to-box creates numerous attacking opportunities.
  • Atlas: M. García — His presence on the flank provides width and crossing options, crucial for unlocking Pachuca’s defensive shape.

Head-to-Head Insights: The History and Patterns

Looking back at their 18 recent encounters, Pachuca holds a slight edge with 10 wins, and their recent meetings have shown a pattern of decisive result margins. Notably, Pachuca secured a 3-0 victory in their latest clash in August 2025, emphasizing their ability to dominate at home.

While Atlas managed a 2-0 win in September 2024, these results highlight how Pachuca can turn the tide when playing on their turf. Interestingly, the overall goals per game between these clubs hover around 2.17, with a BTTS occurrence of just 28%, indicating a tendency for tight, low-scoring affairs.

Bookmakers’ Perspective: The Odds and What They Suggest

  • Match Winner: Home (1.25), Draw (3.25), Away (3.3)
  • Implied Probabilities: Home: 56.7%, Draw: 21.8%, Away: 21.5%
  • Double Chance: 1X (1.17), 12 (1.29), X2 (2)
  • Asian Handicap: Home -1 (2.4), Away -1 (1.57), Home -0.5 (1.75), Away -0.5 (2.1)
  • Correct Score Odds: 1:0 (around 5.8), 1:1 (6)

The odds heavily favor Pachuca, especially for a home win, reflecting confidence in their ability to secure three points here. The relatively high odds for away or draw suggest bookmakers see this as a close contest, but the implied probabilities reveal limited value outside the home win.

Breaking Down the Betting Angles: Value and Risks

The implied probability for Pachuca to win is approximately 56.7%, which aligns with the bookmaker’s odds. A key consideration is whether the value lies elsewhere. Given Pachuca's strong recent head-to-head record and home advantage, betting on a straightforward Pachuca win (1) seems justified, especially with the odds at 1.25. However, the under 2.5 goals market provides a slightly better risk-reward profile with a 53% confidence level, supported by the low scoring nature observed historically and recent form.

The 'Both Teams to Score: No' scenario, at just over even money, is a tempting play based on the defensive records and past low BTTS percentages, especially since Pachuca’s 30-40% BTTS in recent matches indicates they often keep clean sheets or win tight games.

Double chance 1X at 1.17 offers safety for those cautious about an upset, but the potential return is limited, so its value is marginal unless combined with other bets.

Final Verdict: A Narrow but Decisive Pachuca Victory

Based on all factors, Pachuca’s home advantage, recent head-to-head dominance, and the statistical leanings towards a low-scoring, clean sheet-afflicted game, the most logical prediction is a narrow Pachuca win, likely 1-0 or 1-0, with under 2.5 goals. Their solid defensive setup coupled with the attacking prowess of Valencia and Kenedy should enable them to eke out a result in front of their passionate fans, who will be eager to see their side capitalize on this opportunity.

Confidence level in this prediction is around 56%, borne out by the odds and form data. While Atlas can certainly threaten and may even snatch a point or a goal, the balance tips in favor of Pachuca’s home resilience and attacking edge.

Best Bets: Summing Up the Value

  • Match Result: Pachuca to win (1) — Value at 1.25 with strong home form and head-to-head dominance.
  • Under 2.5 Goals: Yes — Supported by historical low-scoring matches and recent form.
  • Both Teams to Score: No — Given defensive stats and low BTTS rate, looks favorable.

This selection balances statistical data, form, and bookmaker odds, offering a reasonable pathway to profit on what looks set to be a tightly contested, low-scoring affair at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo.

Additional Information

PachucaPachuca

Top Scorers

E. Valencia
E. ValenciaAttacker
4Goals
Kenedy
KenedyMidfielder
4Goals
J. Cádiz
J. CádizAttacker
3Goals
O. Idrissi
O. IdrissiAttacker
3Goals
Alán Ernesto Bautista Gutiérrez
Alán Ernesto Bautista GutiérrezMidfielder
2Goals

Top Assists

V. Guzmán
V. GuzmánMidfielder
4Assists
J. Cádiz
J. CádizAttacker
3Assists
Alán Ernesto Bautista Gutiérrez
Alán Ernesto Bautista GutiérrezMidfielder
2Assists
A. Aceves
A. AcevesDefender
2Assists
E. Montiel
E. MontielMidfielder
2Assists

Cards

Eduardo Bauermann
Eduardo BauermannDefender
70
L. Quiñones
L. QuiñonesMidfielder
51
C. Moreno
C. MorenoGoalkeeper
51
P. Pedraza
P. PedrazaMidfielder
60
Alán Ernesto Bautista Gutiérrez
Alán Ernesto Bautista GutiérrezMidfielder
41
AtlasAtlas

Top Scorers

U. Đurđević
U. ĐurđevićAttacker
9Goals
D. González
D. GonzálezMidfielder
5Goals
M. García
M. GarcíaMidfielder
2Goals
G. del Prete
G. del PreteAttacker
2Goals
A. Mora
A. MoraDefender
2Goals

Top Assists

D. González
D. GonzálezMidfielder
5Assists
Gustavo Ferrareis
Gustavo FerrareisDefender
3Assists
A. Rocha
A. RochaMidfielder
2Assists
U. Đurđević
U. ĐurđevićAttacker
1Assists
M. García
M. GarcíaMidfielder
1Assists

Cards

U. Đurđević
U. ĐurđevićAttacker
90
V. Ríos
V. RíosDefender
50
A. Mora
A. MoraDefender
40
G. Aguirre
G. AguirreDefender
40
M. Cóccaro
M. CóccaroAttacker
31

Detailed Form & Recent Matches

Pachuca
DWWLW
10Played
6Wins
3Draws
1Losses
Points/Game2.1
Win %60%
Goals/Game2.1
Scored Avg1.4
Conceded Avg0.7
BTTS60%
Clean Sheets30%
Failed to Score30%

Recent Matches

14 MarDat Atletico San Luis1-1
8 MarWvs Puebla2-1
4 MarWvs Necaxa2-1
28 FebLat Mazatlán0-1
21 FebWat Tigres UANL2-1
Atlas
DLWLW
10Played
4Wins
2Draws
4Losses
Points/Game1.4
Win %40%
Goals/Game2.9
Scored Avg1.3
Conceded Avg1.6
BTTS70%
Clean Sheets20%
Failed to Score10%

Recent Matches

15 MarDat Toluca1-1
8 MarLvs Guadalajara Chivas1-2
5 MarWvs Club Tijuana2-1
28 FebLat FC Juarez1-3
21 FebWvs Atletico San Luis3-2

Head to Head History

Betting Statistics

MetricValue
Total Matches19
Average Goals2.26
BTTS32%
Over 2.5 Goals37%
Over 1.5 Goals58%

Goals by Team

TeamTotalAverage
Pachuca261.37 per game
Atlas170.89 per game

Clean Sheets

TeamClean Sheets
Pachuca9 (47%)
Atlas7 (37%)
14 Feb 2026Liga MXPachuca3-1Atlas
10 Aug 2025Liga MXAtlas0-3Pachuca
2 Feb 2025Liga MXPachuca0-0Atlas
14 Sept 2024Liga MXAtlas2-0Pachuca
1 Feb 2024Liga MXPachuca4-3Atlas
2 Nov 2023Liga MXAtlas0-2Pachuca
15 Apr 2023Liga MXAtlas4-1Pachuca
26 Aug 2022Liga MXPachuca3-1Atlas
30 May 2022Liga MXPachuca2-1Atlas
27 May 2022Liga MXAtlas2-0Pachuca
3 Mar 2022Liga MXAtlas0-1Pachuca
10 Aug 2021Liga MXPachuca0-1Atlas
16 Feb 2021Liga MXPachuca0-1Atlas
20 Sept 2020Liga MXAtlas0-1Pachuca
22 Feb 2020Liga MXAtlas0-2Pachuca
25 Aug 2019Liga MXPachuca3-1Atlas
27 Apr 2019Liga MXPachuca1-0Atlas
10 Nov 2018Liga MXAtlas0-0Pachuca
29 Apr 2018Liga MXPachuca0-0Atlas