EnglandEngland
League OneLeague One
Round 31

Plymouth vs Lincoln Prediction & Betting Tips

Plymouth

Plymouth

10th53 pts
7 Feb 2026
1-4
Full Time
Lincoln

Lincoln

1st80 pts
Home Park, Plymouth
Correct
Our #1 Pick
Asian Handicap
AH Away -0.25
@ 1.55
1 : 4
FT

Betting Tips

36%
26%
38%
PlymouthDrawLincoln
Match Result
Away Win
@ 2.23
38%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
@ 1.75
53%
Double Chance
Home/Away
@ 1.31
36%
Asian Handicap
AH Away -0.25
@ 1.55
65%
Half Time
Draw
@ 2.03
43%
HT/FT
Draw/Away
@ 5.70
17.5%

Additional Markets

Total Corners
Over 9.5
@ 1.70
54.7%
Odds updated hourly from bookmakers
Predictions recalculated every 2 hours
Locked 2 hours before kickoff

Expert Analysis

David Coleman
David Coleman Senior Football Analyst
75% 20+ yrs
6 min read

The Battle for Momentum: Plymouth’s Quest to Halt Lincoln’s Rise As Plymouth welcomes Lincoln to Home Park, one man’s name echoes through the build-up—L. Tolaj. The towering frontman for the Pilgrims has been pivotal in their quest for stability in L...

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Match Facts

Plymouth
Plymouth have received 4 red cards in 36 matches this season
Plymouth have scored all 4 penalties this season
L. Tolaj has been involved in 15 goals (11G + 4A)
Plymouth have lost 8 of 18 home matches (44%)
Plymouth conceded in the first half in 11 of their last 15 matches (73%)
Plymouth average 2.6 yellow cards per game (95 in 36 matches)
Lincoln
Lincoln have scored in each of their last 19 matches
Lincoln have won their last 5 league matches
Lincoln scored in the first half in 13 of their last 15 matches (87%)
Lincoln have scored all 4 penalties this season
Lincoln have received 3 red cards in 36 matches this season
R. Hackett has been involved in 10 goals (6G + 4A)

Key Statistics

Plymouth3
3Draws
5Lincoln
3.36Avg Goals
55%BTTS
55%Over 2.5
7 Feb 2026Plymouth1-4Lincoln
16 Aug 2025Lincoln3-2Plymouth
10 Apr 2023Plymouth0-2Lincoln
12 Nov 2022Lincoln1-1Plymouth
22 Jan 2022Plymouth1-2Lincoln
View all H2H matches

Betting Odds

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet1.903.251.80
188Bet2.483.352.51
1xBet2.703.262.53

Full Match Analysis

David Coleman
David Coleman
Senior Football Analyst
75% Accuracy
20+ Years Experience
5.5k Predictions

The Battle for Momentum: Plymouth’s Quest to Halt Lincoln’s Rise

As Plymouth welcomes Lincoln to Home Park, one man’s name echoes through the build-up—L. Tolaj. The towering frontman for the Pilgrims has been pivotal in their quest for stability in League One, netting 11 goals this season. His presence and physicality could be the difference-maker in a game that promises both passion and tactical intrigue. Meanwhile, Lincoln’s attack is spearheaded by R. Hackett and F. Draper, each contributing to a prolific scoring record that has helped them surge into second place. The clash hinges on Tolaj’s ability to break Lincoln’s resilient backline, while Lincoln’s creative midfielders aim to unlock Plymouth’s defense. This contest is shaping up to be one of the most compelling fixtures of the weekend—where individual brilliance could tip the scales.

Context & Significance: Mid-Season Power Play

The fixture at Home Park carries more than just three points; it’s a statement of intent. Plymouth, sitting 15th with 37 points, are eager to build on their recent form—losing only twice in their last five matches. Lincoln, on the other hand, with 58 points and a commanding position in second, look to consolidate their promotion push. This match offers Plymouth an opportunity to show they can challenge the top teams, while Lincoln aim to extend their winning streak and tighten their grip on second place. For the league, this game is a microcosm of the battle between ambition and resilience—where Lincoln’s attacking flair meets Plymouth’s defensive grit.

Momentum and Form: The Tale of Two Trajectories

Recent results paint contrasting pictures. Plymouth’s last five outings consist of a balanced run—two wins, three draws, and two defeats—highlighting their inconsistency but also resilience. Their attack averages 1.6 goals per game, which isn’t prolific but sufficient when complemented by a solid defensive record with a 40% clean sheet rate. Conversely, Lincoln have been in red-hot form, winning five of their last six matches (seven wins in their last ten) and boasting an impressive 2.2 goals scored per game. Their defensive record is solid, conceding just 1 goal per game on average and keeping 10 clean sheets overall. Lincoln’s recent momentum suggests they’re a team on a mission, while Plymouth’s mixed results underline the challenge they face in containing Lincoln’s firepower.

Strategic Blueprints: How Might They Line Up?

Plymouth typically deploy a 4-4-2 formation, emphasizing structure and direct attacking options. Expect Owen Oseni and A. Pepple to support Tolaj up front, with midfielders tasked with balancing defensive duties and launching quick counters. Plymouth’s defensive discipline will be crucial; maintaining organization and limiting Lincoln’s space will be key.

Lincoln’s usual setup is a 4-2-3-1, leveraging a strong midfield foundation with Draper and Moylan providing creativity behind Hackett, who serves as the central goal threat. Their fluid attacking system looks to exploit the wider areas and overload Plymouth’s defensive shape. Lincoln’s midfielders are expected to press high and challenge Plymouth’s buildup, aiming to regain possession quickly and launch swift counterattacks.

Key Players with the Power to Decide

  • Plymouth: L. Tolaj – The aerial threat and focal point of Plymouth’s attack, Tolaj’s goal-scoring ability makes him a constant danger. His physical presence could be decisive in breaking Lincoln’s defensive lines.
  • Owen Oseni – Versatile and energetic, Oseni’s runs from deep add creativity and width. He’s capable of unlocking defenses with well-timed passes or cutting inside for shots.
  • A. Pepple – Young and dynamic, Pepple provides a secondary goal threat and can stretch Lincoln’s backline with clever movement.
  • Lincoln: R. Hackett – The leading scorer and playmaker, Hackett’s ability to find pockets of space and create chances makes him Lincoln’s main threat.
  • F. Draper – A box-to-box dynamo, Draper’s energy and passing range help control the midfield and support attacks.
  • J. Moylan – The creative architect, Moylan’s vision and delivery from wide positions can unlock Plymouth’s defenses, especially with set-piece opportunities.

The H2H Narrative & Recent Encounters

In the last ten meetings, the rivalry has been tightly contested, with three Plymouth wins, four Lincoln victories, and three draws. Goals have flowed at an average of over three per game, indicating open and exciting encounters. The recent history suggests Lincoln has slightly edged out Plymouth, with notable wins like the 3-2 victory last August and their 2-0 triumph in April 2023. Plymouth’s last win came back in 2022, highlighting Lincoln’s recent dominance. However, the margin remains slim, with both sides capable of turning the tide, especially considering the unpredictable nature of League One.

Betting Insight: Crunching the Numbers & Market Value

Bookmakers currently rate Lincoln as favorites, with typical odds around 2.00 (1/1) for a win, implying an approximate 50% chance. Plymouth’s odds hover at roughly 3.50, with a draw around 3.30. The implied probabilities indicate Lincoln’s edge—yet, there's value in considering recent form and home advantage.

Over/Under 2.5 goals is priced at about 1.90 for under and 1.85 for over, reflecting the balanced scoring and defensive records. Given Lincoln’s aggressive attack and Plymouth’s resilience, both teams to score (BTTS) is a strong candidate, with odds around 1.80, aligning with a 53% implied probability.

Asian Handicap markets favor Lincoln at -0.25, with odds around 1.80, acknowledging Plymouth’s capacity to challenge but also Lincoln’s superior firepower.

Calculating implied probabilities reveals that the market slightly undervalues Plymouth’s chances, especially considering their home advantage and recent form fluctuations. Accordingly, a cautious but optimistic approach toward the double chance (X2) at roughly 1.60 offers a safer alternative, with a 36% implied chance of at least a draw or Lincoln win.

Predictions and Personal Insights

Considering all factors—form, head-to-head dynamics, tactical setups, and individual matchups—an evenly poised game emerges. Lincoln’s superior attack and recent winning streak give them a slight edge, but Plymouth’s resilience and home advantage prevent a straightforward outcome.

My confidence leans toward a draw—both teams possess enough attacking threat and defensive vulnerabilities to exchange goals. The predicted scoreline leans 1-1, with a probability of 28%, supported by the tendencies shown in recent meetings and the data at hand.

Over 2.5 goals is slightly over 50% likely, given the open nature of the encounters and Lincoln’s aggressive scoring record. Both teams to score is a value bet at similar confidence levels.

Ultimately, I see Lincoln edging this game but acknowledge Plymouth’s potential to disrupt and secure a point, especially if Tolaj finds moments of brilliance.

Best Bets Snapshot

  • Predicted Result: Draw (X) – 28% confidence
  • Goals Total: Under 2.5 goals – 53% confidence
  • Both Teams Score: Yes – 53% confidence
  • Double Chance: X2 (Draw or Lincoln win) – 36% confidence

With a narrow focus on tactical discipline and individual moments of excellence, this fixture at Home Park promises to deliver drama and tactical battles in equal measure. Expect Lincoln’s clinical attack to test Plymouth’s defenses, while the Pilgrims look to Tolaj to fire them to an unlikely reward. With bookmakers leaning slightly toward Lincoln, sharp bettors will seek value in the draw or the BTTS market, reflecting an even contest between two determined sides.

Additional Information

PlymouthPlymouth

Top Scorers

L. Tolaj
L. TolajAttacker
11Goals
Owen Oseni
Owen OseniAttacker
4Goals
A. Pepple
A. PeppleAttacker
4Goals
B. Ibrahim
B. IbrahimMidfielder
3Goals
X. Amaechi
X. AmaechiMidfielder
3Goals

Top Assists

L. Tolaj
L. TolajAttacker
4Assists
M. Boateng
M. BoatengMidfielder
4Assists
B. Mumba
B. MumbaMidfielder
4Assists
Owen Oseni
Owen OseniAttacker
2Assists
B. Ibrahim
B. IbrahimMidfielder
2Assists

Cards

M. Sorinola
M. SorinolaDefender
100
B. Ibrahim
B. IbrahimMidfielder
60
B. Mumba
B. MumbaMidfielder
60
J. Edwards
J. EdwardsDefender
51
L. Tolaj
L. TolajAttacker
41
LincolnLincoln

Top Scorers

R. Hackett
R. HackettMidfielder
6Goals
F. Draper
F. DraperAttacker
6Goals
J. Moylan
J. MoylanMidfielder
5Goals
A. Reach
A. ReachMidfielder
4Goals
R. Street
R. StreetMidfielder
4Goals

Top Assists

T. Hamer
T. HamerDefender
5Assists
R. Hackett
R. HackettMidfielder
4Assists
J. Moylan
J. MoylanMidfielder
3Assists
A. Reach
A. ReachMidfielder
3Assists
T. Darikwa
T. DarikwaDefender
3Assists

Cards

C. McGrandles
C. McGrandlesMidfielder
80
R. Towler
R. TowlerDefender
70
T. Hamer
T. HamerDefender
60
F. Draper
F. DraperAttacker
50
R. Street
R. StreetMidfielder
40

Detailed Form & Recent Matches

Plymouth
DWWLW
10Played
5Wins
2Draws
3Losses
Points/Game1.7
Win %50%
Goals/Game3.6
Scored Avg2.2
Conceded Avg1.4
BTTS70%
Clean Sheets20%
Failed to Score10%

Recent Matches

14 MarDat Reading2-2
10 MarWat Wigan3-0
7 MarWvs Doncaster2-1
28 FebLat Rotherham0-1
21 FebWvs Cardiff5-2
Lincoln
WWWWW
10Played
9Wins
1Draws
0Losses
Points/Game2.8
Win %90%
Goals/Game2.8
Scored Avg2.5
Conceded Avg0.3
BTTS30%
Clean Sheets70%
Failed to Score0%

Recent Matches

14 MarWvs Stockport County3-1
10 MarWat Exeter City1-0
7 MarWat Cardiff2-0
28 FebWvs Blackpool4-0
21 FebWat Mansfield Town2-0

Head to Head History

Betting Statistics

MetricValue
Total Matches11
Average Goals3.36
BTTS55%
Over 2.5 Goals55%
Over 1.5 Goals91%

Goals by Team

TeamTotalAverage
Plymouth181.64 per game
Lincoln191.73 per game

Clean Sheets

TeamClean Sheets
Plymouth3 (27%)
Lincoln3 (27%)
7 Feb 2026League OnePlymouth1-4Lincoln
16 Aug 2025League OneLincoln3-2Plymouth
10 Apr 2023League OnePlymouth0-2Lincoln
12 Nov 2022League OneLincoln1-1Plymouth
22 Jan 2022League OnePlymouth1-2Lincoln
2 Oct 2021League OneLincoln2-2Plymouth
27 Feb 2021League OnePlymouth4-3Lincoln
28 Nov 2020FA CupPlymouth2-0Lincoln
20 Oct 2020League OneLincoln2-0Plymouth
20 Nov 2013FA CupPlymouth5-0Lincoln
9 Nov 2013FA CupLincoln0-0Plymouth