ItalyItaly
Serie BSerie B
Round 25

Sampdoria vs Padova Prediction & Betting Tips

Sampdoria

Sampdoria

14th31 pts
14 Feb 2026
1-0
Full Time
Padova

Padova

11th34 pts
Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa
Correct
Our #1 Pick
Total Goals
Under 2.5
@ 1.64
1 : 0
FT

Betting Tips

53%
27%
20%
SampdoriaDrawPadova
Match Result
Home Win
@ 1.60
53%
Both Teams to Score
No
@ 1.72
54%
Double Chance
Home/Draw
@ 1.16
41%
Asian Handicap
AH Home -0.75
@ 1.97
51%
Half Time
Draw
@ 1.86
45%
HT/FT
Draw/Home
@ 4.20
23.8%
Correct Score
1:0
@ 5.00
20.0%

Additional Markets

Total Corners
Under 9.5
@ 1.70
54.7%
Anytime Goalscorer
Massimo Coda
48.8%@ 2.05
Matteo Brunori
41.7%@ 2.40
Simone Leonardi
33.3%@ 3.00
Edoardo Soleri
33.3%@ 3.00
Nicholas Pierini
29.4%@ 3.40
Simone Pafundi
27.8%@ 3.60
Odds updated hourly from bookmakers
Predictions recalculated every 2 hours
Locked 2 hours before kickoff

Expert Analysis

David Coleman
David Coleman Senior Football Analyst
75% 20+ yrs
6 min read

Unstoppable Push or Steady Ship? Analyzing Sampdoria vs Padova In a fixture that could subtly influence their season trajectories, Sampdoria welcomes Padova to the Luigi Ferraris on February 14. The spotlight centers not just on the teams’ standings ...

Read Full Analysis

Match Facts

Sampdoria
Sampdoria have scored all 5 penalties this season
Sampdoria have won just 1 of 15 away matches this season
Sampdoria score 37% of their goals after the 75th minute (11 goals)
Sampdoria have received 3 red cards in 30 matches this season
Sampdoria score 70% of their goals in the second half
M. Coda has been involved in 12 goals (9G + 3A)
Padova
Padova have conceded in each of their last 6 matches
Padova have scored all 4 penalties this season
Padova conceded in the first half in 10 of their last 15 matches (67%)
Padova average 2.5 yellow cards per game (76 in 30 matches)

Key Statistics

Sampdoria1
1Draws
0Padova
1.5Avg Goals
50%BTTS
0%Over 2.5
14 Feb 2026Sampdoria1-0Padova
20 Dec 2025Padova1-1Sampdoria
View all H2H matches

Betting Odds

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet1.283.253.30
188Bet1.833.354.20
1xBet1.813.105.21

Full Match Analysis

David Coleman
David Coleman
Senior Football Analyst
75% Accuracy
20+ Years Experience
5.5k Predictions

Unstoppable Push or Steady Ship? Analyzing Sampdoria vs Padova

In a fixture that could subtly influence their season trajectories, Sampdoria welcomes Padova to the Luigi Ferraris on February 14. The spotlight centers not just on the teams’ standings but on individual brilliance—most notably, M. Coda’s relentless pursuit of goals for Sampdoria. As both sides aim for consistency in the increasingly congested Serie B table, understanding the nuances of their recent form, tactical approaches, and key personnel becomes essential for unraveling this matchup's potential outcomes.

Setting the Scene: League Significance & Strategic Implications

While neither club sits at the summit, both are eyeing vital points that could propel them toward the upper echelons of Serie B. Sampdoria, standing 14th with 26 points, and Padova, just three points ahead with 29, are locked in a tight mid-table battle. For Sampdoria, consolidating home advantage at the Luigi Ferraris could be pivotal, especially given their recent trend of mixed results—averaging 1.4 goals scored and conceding 1.2 per game. Padova, with a slightly more defensive bent, boasts six clean sheets and averages 1.2 goals scored, but their recent form has been inconsistent.

Momentum Matters: Analyzing the Recent Run

Sampdoria's recent form of four wins, four draws, and two losses suggests a side resilient under pressure, especially with a streak of consecutive draws interspersed with victories. Their last five matches showcase a scoring rate of about 1.4 goals per game, with defensive lapses leading to an average of 1.2 goals conceded. Notably, 70% of their games feature both teams scoring, indicating a commitment to attacking play despite defensive vulnerabilities.

In contrast, Padova's five matches show a more inconsistent pattern: three wins but four losses, with their form dipping into three consecutive defeats recently. Their goals per game are slightly lower at 1.2, and conceding 1.4 reflects defensive fragility, despite their six clean sheets. With a BTTS rate of 60%, their matches often feature both offensive opportunities and defensive lapses.

Tactical Blueprints: Formations and Game Plans

Sampdoria typically deploys a 3-4-2-1 formation, emphasizing width and midfield control. Their approach leans on quick transitions and the utilization of wide players like F. Depaoli, who offers both width and defensive stability. The team’s attacking identity revolves around M. Coda, whose 9 goals make him central to their offensive threats, supported by N. Ioannou and Depaoli in creating scoring opportunities.

Padova, lining up in a 3-5-2 setup, prioritizes defensive solidity with a robust five-man midfield. Their wing-backs and central midfielders aim to disrupt opposition rhythm, while their two strikers look to capitalize on counter-attacks. Their defensive sturdiness, reflected in six clean sheets, suggests they are prepared to absorb pressure and hit on the break.

Key Players Who Could Shift the Balance

  • Sampdoria:
    • Mario Coda: The talisman with 9 goals, Coda’s positioning and finishing could be decisive if Padova’s defensive line wavers.
    • F. Depaoli: Beyond his assist tally, his crossing and set-piece delivery threaten to unlock Padova’s defensive shape.
    • N. Ioannou: A versatile presence in the backline and attack, Ioannou’s contributions could skew the game’s defensive battles.
  • Padova:
    • Top Scorers: While specific names are not provided, their attacking players are crucial to exploit any lapses from Sampdoria’s defense.
    • Defensive Anchors: The defenders orchestrating their six clean sheets will be vital—stopping Coda and preventing set-piece damage.
    • Midfield Playmakers: Their ability to control possession and supply quick counters can be game-changers.

Head-to-Head: Patterns and Potential Trends

The recent meeting between the sides ended in a 1-1 draw, with both teams scoring and the match averaging two goals overall. Historically, matches between Sampdoria and Padova tend to be tightly contested, with a 100% BTTS rate in their last encounter and an average of two goals per game. This pattern suggests a propensity for both sides to find the net but also indicates defensive vulnerabilities that could be exploited either way.

This recent 1-1 result underscores the importance of set-piece efficiency and the importance of defensive organization, especially considering Sampdoria's leaky defense at times.

Dissecting the Bookmakers: Odds, Probabilities, and Value

  • Match Winner: Sampdoria at 1.36 (implying a 55.8% chance), Padova at 4 (19%), Draw at 3 (25.3%)
  • Double Chance: 1X at 1.22 (implied 82%), 12 at 1.35 (74%), X2 at 1.8 (56%)
  • Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Typically, the odds favored for under 2.5 are around 1.80, aligning with a 59% probability, based on recent scoring patterns.
  • BTTS: Odds near 1.80 suggest a 55-60% likelihood, which aligns with recent trends of both teams scoring in most games.
  • Asian Handicap: Home -0.5 at 1.95 indicates a close estimate of Sampdoria’s chance to win outright, considering their slight edge playing at home.

Analyzing implied probabilities reveals that the market heavily favors Sampdoria, but the value lies in the modest under 2.5 goals market, as recent scoring rates just about support that threshold. The BTTS market also provides a fair proposition, given the current form and head-to-head tendencies.

Predictions and Confidence Levels: A Data-Driven Outlook

  • Match Result: Sampdoria win (50% confidence) – Their home advantage and marginally better form tip the scales, though Padova’s resilience cannot be discounted.
  • Total Goals: Under 2.5 at 59% confidence – Given the cautious tactical setups and recent scoring averages, a low-scoring affair appears probable.
  • Both Teams Score: No (53% confidence) – Slightly leaning towards a game where Sampdoria’s attack may find openings, but Padova’s defensive discipline could hold firm.
  • Double Chance (1X): Favoring Sampdoria or a draw, with a 39% confidence—good value considering their home edge and recent form.

Final Word: Tactical Discipline and Key Moments Will Decide

Sampdoria's attacking talent, led by Coda, combined with their home advantage, makes them marginal favorites. However, Padova’s defensive organization, paired with their counter-attacking potential, ensures this game remains tight and competitive. Expect a match where patience and capitalizing on set-pieces or defensive lapses will be decisive—especially given the statistical leaning towards under 2.5 goals and no BTTS outcome.

Best Bets Summary

  • Sampdoria to Win (1X): Based on odds and recent form, with a fair chance of extracting a narrow victory.
  • Under 2.5 Goals: Considering current scoring averages, this remains attractive with over 59% implied probability.
  • BTTS No: Slightly favored, given the defensive patterns and tactical setups.

In this encounter, statistical trends, tactical setups, and recent form converge on a low-scoring, closely contested match where Sampdoria’s slight home-edge could be the difference-maker. The intelligent bettor will consider the value in the under 2.5 goals market and the double chance, given the probabilities involved.

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Additional Information

SampdoriaSampdoria

Top Scorers

M. Coda
M. CodaAttacker
9Goals
F. Depaoli
F. DepaoliDefender
2Goals
N. Ioannou
N. IoannouDefender
2Goals
L. Henderson
L. HendersonMidfielder
2Goals
S. Pafundi
S. PafundiMidfielder
1Goals

Top Assists

M. Coda
M. CodaAttacker
3Assists
S. Pafundi
S. PafundiMidfielder
3Assists
O. Abildgaard
O. AbildgaardMidfielder
2Assists
F. Depaoli
F. DepaoliDefender
1Assists
N. Ioannou
N. IoannouDefender
1Assists

Cards

L. Henderson
L. HendersonMidfielder
100
F. Depaoli
F. DepaoliDefender
70
N. Ioannou
N. IoannouDefender
50
S. Vulikić
S. VulikićDefender
40
L. Benedetti
L. BenedettiMidfielder
40
PadovaPadova

Top Scorers

No data

Top Assists

No data

Cards

A. Barreca
A. BarrecaDefender
10

Detailed Form & Recent Matches

Sampdoria
DLDLL
10Played
3Wins
4Draws
3Losses
Points/Game1.3
Win %30%
Goals/Game2.1
Scored Avg0.9
Conceded Avg1.2
BTTS40%
Clean Sheets40%
Failed to Score40%

Recent Matches

14 MarDvs Venezia0-0
8 MarLat Frosinone0-3
4 MarDat Juve Stabia1-1
27 FebLvs Bari0-2
21 FebLat Mantova1-2
Padova
LLDWD
10Played
2Wins
3Draws
5Losses
Points/Game0.9
Win %20%
Goals/Game2.8
Scored Avg1.1
Conceded Avg1.7
BTTS60%
Clean Sheets10%
Failed to Score30%

Recent Matches

14 MarLvs Catanzaro1-3
7 MarLat Avellino0-1
3 MarDvs Spezia2-2
28 FebWat Modena2-1
21 FebDvs Bari1-1

Head to Head History

Betting Statistics

MetricValue
Total Matches2
Average Goals1.5
BTTS50%
Over 2.5 Goals0%
Over 1.5 Goals50%

Goals by Team

TeamTotalAverage
Sampdoria21 per game
Padova10.5 per game

Clean Sheets

TeamClean Sheets
Sampdoria1 (50%)
Padova0 (0%)
14 Feb 2026Serie BSampdoria1-0Padova
20 Dec 2025Serie BPadova1-1Sampdoria