PolandPoland
EkstraklasaEkstraklasa
Round 21

Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa Prediction & Betting Tips

14 Feb 2026
0-0
Full Time
KGHM Zaglebie Arena, Lubin
Incorrect
Our #1 Pick
Asian Handicap
AH Away -0.25
@ 1.31
0 : 0
FT

Betting Tips

27%
27%
46%
Zaglebie LubinDrawRaków Częstochowa
Match Result
Away Win
@ 1.86
46%
Both Teams to Score
No
@ 1.79
52%
Double Chance
Draw/Away
@ 1.26
37%
Asian Handicap
AH Away -0.25
@ 1.31
76%
Half Time
Draw
@ 1.93
45%
HT/FT
Draw/Away
@ 4.75
21.1%
Correct Score
0:1
@ 5.50
18.2%

Additional Markets

Total Corners
Under 9.5
@ 1.70
54.7%
Odds updated hourly from bookmakers
Predictions recalculated every 2 hours
Locked 2 hours before kickoff

Expert Analysis

David Coleman
David Coleman Senior Football Analyst
75% 20+ yrs
6 min read

The Battle for Midfield Supremacy: Will Rocha Shine or Diaby-Fadiga Dominate? Under the bright Lubin sun, Saturday's clash at KGHM Zaglebie Arena isn’t just another league fixture; it’s a defining moment for two teams with contrasting pedigrees and r...

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Match Facts

Zaglebie Lubin
Zaglebie Lubin are unbeaten in their last 4 league matches
Zaglebie Lubin have scored all 5 penalties this season
Zaglebie Lubin score 28% of their goals in the first 15 minutes (11 goals)
Raków Częstochowa
Raków Częstochowa have scored all 5 penalties this season
Raków Częstochowa have received 3 red cards in 24 matches this season
J. Braut Brunes has scored 10 of Raków Częstochowa's 33 goals (30%)
J. Braut Brunes has been involved in 10 goals (10G + 0A)

Key Statistics

Zaglebie Lubin4
3Draws
8Raków Częstochowa
2.8Avg Goals
53%BTTS
60%Over 2.5
14 Feb 2026Zaglebie Lubin0-0Raków Częstochowa
14 Dec 2025Raków Częstochowa0-1Zaglebie Lubin
31 Mar 2025Zaglebie Lubin0-2Raków Częstochowa
22 Sept 2024Raków Częstochowa5-1Zaglebie Lubin
4 May 2024Zaglebie Lubin2-0Raków Częstochowa
View all H2H matches

Betting Odds

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet2.453.151.48
188Bet3.203.251.99
1xBet3.653.162.07

Full Match Analysis

David Coleman
David Coleman
Senior Football Analyst
75% Accuracy
20+ Years Experience
5.5k Predictions

The Battle for Midfield Supremacy: Will Rocha Shine or Diaby-Fadiga Dominate?

Under the bright Lubin sun, Saturday's clash at KGHM Zaglebie Arena isn’t just another league fixture; it’s a defining moment for two teams with contrasting pedigrees and recent trajectories. The spotlight falls squarely on Leonardo Rocha, the Brazilian talisman for Zaglebie Lubin, whose 7 goals and ability to unlock defenses could be the key to their fortunes. Meanwhile, Raków Częstochowa's Lamine Diaby-Fadiga has been a revelation—his 5 goals and 2 assists significantly impacting the visitors' offensive rhythm. The question is: which playmaker will rise to the occasion and tilt the balance?

Context & Significance: A Mid-Season Pivot

Two points separate these sides in the Ekstraklasa standings, with both eyeing a top-four finish to secure European football next season. Zaglebie Lubin, currently fourth with 31 points, has looked resilient—mixing solid performances with moments of brilliance—while Raków sits just behind on 30 points, aiming to consolidate their mid-table position amid a slightly inconsistent run. This match feels like a pivotal juncture: a victory for Lubin could cement their place in Europe, but for Raków, it’s an opportunity to close the gap and reassert their attacking credentials.

Road to Nowhere or Road to Glory? Form & Momentum

Recent form paints an interesting picture. Zaglebie Lubin possess a slightly more optimistic outlook, with four wins in their last five matches (WLWWD), showcasing a balanced attack and defense. Their goals per game (1.5) and conceding rate (1.4) reveal a team that can both threaten and be vulnerable. The 50% BTTS rate underscores their attacking intent but also their defensive lapses.

Raków, meanwhile, has endured a mixed bag—two losses in their last five (DLWLW)—yet remains potent upfront, averaging 1.6 goals per game. Their defense is marginally tighter (conceding 1 per game) and boasts a higher clean sheet rate (40%). The fact that both sides have 5 clean sheets this season indicates strong defensive moments, but also vulnerabilities that an inventive opponent might exploit.

Strategic Blueprints: Tactical Shapes & Approaches

Expect Zaglebie Lubin to set up in their familiar 5-4-1, emphasizing compactness and counter-attacks, especially through their pace on the flanks. They will look to utilize Rocha’s movement and Kosidis’ finishing to capitalize on quick transitions.

Raków’s 3-4-3 formation suggests an intent to dominate possession and create overloads in midfield. Lamine Diaby-Fadiga’s dynamism on the wings will be crucial, stretching the Lubin backline and creating space for Braut Brunes to exploit in the final third. Defensively, Raków may also adopt a disciplined shape to contain Lubin’s attacking threats, especially Rocha and Radwański’s overlapping runs.

Players Who Could Make the Difference

  • Leonardo Rocha (Zaglebie Lubin): As the leading scorer, Rocha’s movement and finishing can unlock the tightest defenses. His ability to find space between lines makes him the prime candidate to break the deadlock.
  • M. Kosidis (Lubin): His attacking runs and aerial ability support Rocha, providing a dual threat that can stretch Raków’s defensive lines.
  • A. Radwański (Lubin): His assists and link-up play could be pivotal in unlocking pockets of space, especially from set-pieces or quick counters.
  • J. Braut Brunes (Raków): The top scorer for Raków, Brunes’ finishing prowess and movement in the box make him a constant threat—particularly in tight situations.
  • L. Diaby-Fadiga (Raków): His acceleration and dribbling can destabilize Lubin’s defensive shape, creating goal-scoring opportunities.
  • M. Ameyaw (Raków): His playmaking and assists could provide the spark needed to unlock Lubin’s backline, especially in transition.

Head-to-Head Insights: Patterns in the Past

The recent head-to-head record tilts in Raków’s favor—8 wins out of 14 with an average of 3 goals per game. Notably, the last five encounters have been high-scoring and fiercely contested, with 57% BTTS rate. The last meeting in December 2025 saw Lubin narrowly edge out Raków 1-0, a sign that Lubin can upset the odds in familiar territory. Historically, Raków has had the edge, but recent results hint that Lubin’s tactical resilience could produce an upset on Saturday.

Betting Landscape & Strategic Value

Bookmakers list Raków as the clear favorite at 1.41, implying just over a 51% chance of victory, with Lubin at 2.65 (~27%). The double chance (X2) at 1.22 underscores bookmakers’ cautious optimism about an away point, highlighting Raków’s strength but also market awareness of Lubin’s resilience.

The Asian handicap markets—Home +0.5 at 1.75 and Away +0 at 1.5—offer value if you favor the away side’s chances of at least avoiding defeat. The total goals line set at 2.5 is supported by averages—Lubin at 1.5 goals, Raków at 1.6—favoring the under with roughly 58% confidence.

Expert Predictions & Why They Make Sense Now

My confidence leans towards a narrow away win or draw, considering Raków’s slightly better recent form and superior away record. The predicted scoreline is an under 2.5 goals scenario, reflecting tight defenses and cautious approaches, especially given the high stakes.

Specifically, I project a 1-1 draw with about 58% confidence, based on the current form, head-to-head trends, and tactical setups. Bet on both teams NOT scoring also offers slight value at a 52% confidence level, considering Lubin’s 30% clean sheet rate and Raków’s 40%.

Best Bets Summary

  • Match Result: Draw or Raków Win (Double Chance X2) — Considering the odds and recent performances, the safe, value-laden pick is X2 at 1.22, offering a high probability of at least avoiding defeat for Raków.
  • Under 2.5 Goals — Given the defensive solidity and low-scoring tendencies, this market offers an edge with approximately 58% confidence.
  • Both Teams to Score: No — Slightly favored based on defensive stats, with a 52% confidence level.

Conclusion: The Tension Mounts in Lubin

This contest is more than a contest of form; it’s a clash of tactical philosophies and individual brilliance. Rocha’s ability to disrupt defenses will be a focal point, but Raków’s disciplined 3-4-3 and lethal counterattacks could tip the scales. Expect a tightly fought encounter, with the potential for a strategic draw or a narrow away victory—one that might hinge on a moment of individual magic or a defensive error.

Additional Information

Zaglebie LubinZaglebie Lubin

Top Scorers

Leonardo Rocha
Leonardo RochaAttacker
7Goals
M. Kosidis
M. KosidisAttacker
5Goals
A. Radwański
A. RadwańskiMidfielder
4Goals
J. Sypek
J. SypekMidfielder
3Goals
M. Reguła
M. RegułaAttacker
2Goals

Top Assists

A. Radwański
A. RadwańskiMidfielder
3Assists
K. Szmyt
K. SzmytMidfielder
3Assists
D. Dąbrowski
D. DąbrowskiMidfielder
3Assists
M. Reguła
M. RegułaAttacker
2Assists
Leonardo Rocha
Leonardo RochaAttacker
1Assists

Cards

J. Sypek
J. SypekMidfielder
50
M. Reguła
M. RegułaAttacker
40
F. Kocaba
F. KocabaMidfielder
30
M. Nalepa
M. NalepaDefender
30
L. Lučić
L. LučićDefender
30
Raków CzęstochowaRaków Częstochowa

Top Scorers

J. Braut Brunes
J. Braut BrunesAttacker
10Goals
L. Diaby-Fadiga
L. Diaby-FadigaAttacker
5Goals
M. Ameyaw
M. AmeyawAttacker
2Goals
O. Repka
O. RepkaMidfielder
2Goals
Ivi López
Ivi LópezMidfielder
2Goals

Top Assists

M. Ameyaw
M. AmeyawAttacker
5Assists
L. Diaby-Fadiga
L. Diaby-FadigaAttacker
2Assists
M. Bulat
M. BulatMidfielder
2Assists
T. Pieńko
T. PieńkoAttacker
2Assists
O. Repka
O. RepkaMidfielder
1Assists

Cards

Adriano Amorim
Adriano AmorimAttacker
51
F. Tudor
F. TudorMidfielder
41
S. Svarnas
S. SvarnasDefender
40
A. Konstantopoulos
A. KonstantopoulosDefender
40
I. Rondić
I. RondićAttacker
40

Detailed Form & Recent Matches

Zaglebie Lubin
LWWWD
10Played
6Wins
2Draws
2Losses
Points/Game2
Win %60%
Goals/Game1.8
Scored Avg1.2
Conceded Avg0.6
BTTS30%
Clean Sheets50%
Failed to Score40%

Recent Matches

15 MarLvs Lech Poznan0-1
7 MarWat Piast Gliwice3-1
2 MarWvs Wisla Plock2-0
23 FebWat Lechia Gdansk2-0
14 FebDvs Raków Częstochowa0-0
Raków Częstochowa
LLWLW
10Played
3Wins
2Draws
5Losses
Points/Game1.1
Win %30%
Goals/Game2.2
Scored Avg1
Conceded Avg1.2
BTTS40%
Clean Sheets50%
Failed to Score30%

Recent Matches

15 MarLat Gornik Zabrze1-3
12 MarLat Fiorentina1-2
8 MarWvs Pogon Szczecin2-0
1 MarLat Lech Poznan3-4
21 FebWvs Nieciecza1-0

Head to Head History

Betting Statistics

MetricValue
Total Matches15
Average Goals2.8
BTTS53%
Over 2.5 Goals60%
Over 1.5 Goals80%

Goals by Team

TeamTotalAverage
Zaglebie Lubin140.93 per game
Raków Częstochowa281.87 per game

Clean Sheets

TeamClean Sheets
Zaglebie Lubin4 (27%)
Raków Częstochowa4 (27%)
14 Feb 2026EkstraklasaZaglebie Lubin0-0Raków Częstochowa
14 Dec 2025EkstraklasaRaków Częstochowa0-1Zaglebie Lubin
31 Mar 2025EkstraklasaZaglebie Lubin0-2Raków Częstochowa
22 Sept 2024EkstraklasaRaków Częstochowa5-1Zaglebie Lubin
4 May 2024EkstraklasaZaglebie Lubin2-0Raków Częstochowa
5 Nov 2023EkstraklasaRaków Częstochowa5-0Zaglebie Lubin
27 May 2023EkstraklasaRaków Częstochowa1-1Zaglebie Lubin
12 Nov 2022EkstraklasaZaglebie Lubin1-2Raków Częstochowa
14 May 2022EkstraklasaZaglebie Lubin1-0Raków Częstochowa
27 Nov 2021EkstraklasaRaków Częstochowa4-0Zaglebie Lubin
21 Feb 2021EkstraklasaZaglebie Lubin1-2Raków Częstochowa
14 Sept 2020EkstraklasaRaków Częstochowa2-1Zaglebie Lubin
4 Jul 2020EkstraklasaRaków Częstochowa1-2Zaglebie Lubin
14 Jun 2020EkstraklasaRaków Częstochowa2-1Zaglebie Lubin
10 Nov 2019EkstraklasaZaglebie Lubin2-2Raków Częstochowa