Europa League League Stage Round 4: A Mix of Breakthroughs and Broken Records

Round 4 of the 2026/27 UEFA Europa League league stage produced 48 goals across 18 matches, with 15 winners and three draws. Ferencvaros stunned AC Milan 2-0, NEC Nijmegen beat Omonia Nicosia 3-1, and Benfica overcame Lech Poznan 3-1. Anderlecht recorded a controlled 2-0 victory over Red Bull Salzburg, while Marseille edged Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 and Juventus defeated AZ Alkmaar 2-1. Bournemouth won 3-1 at Sparta Praha, Torino? No further.

Elsewhere, Celtic produced the round’s most dramatic comeback, beating Beşiktaş 3-2 after the visitors led through a 54th-minute penalty, according to Hürriyet. Sturm Graz also came close before losing 3-2 to Celje, with Oumar Diakite’s 93rd-minute goal arriving too late, as reported by Heute. Dinamo Zagreb won 2-0 against Sunderland, while Union St. Gilloise edged Celta Vigo 2-1. Levski Sofia recorded a 1-0 victory over Jagiellonia, Plzen beat Lillestrom 1-0, and Celje completed a notable away win. Three matches ended without a goal between the sides: Rennes and Olympiakos Piraeus drew 0-0, Crystal Palace shared a 1-1 with 1899 Hoffenheim, and Real Sociedad matched Lyon 1-1. Torreense also staged a late spectacle, beating Ararat-Armenia 3-2.

Round 4 prediction scorecard: solid but uneven 1X2 return

Our UEFA Europa League League Stage predictions delivered an 8/18 correct 1X2 record, producing a 44% success rate. The round began with two misses: Rennes 0-0 Olympiakos Piraeus and AC Milan 0-2 Ferencvarosi TC. Anderlecht then provided the first success with a correct call in their 2-0 win over Red Bull Salzburg, although Crystal Palace 1-1 1899 Hoffenheim was another miss. Levski Sofia 1-0 Jagiellonia, Lillestrom 0-1 Plzen and NEC Nijmegen 3-1 Omonia Nicosia extended the run of accurate selections to three.

The strongest sequence came from NEC Nijmegen through Benfica. Real Sociedad 1-1 Lyon was the first miss within that stretch, but the predictions were correct for Sparta Praha 1-3 Bournemouth, AZ Alkmaar 1-2 Juventus and Benfica 3-1 Lech Poznan. Bayer Leverkusen 0-1 Marseille interrupted that run, while Celta Vigo 1-2 Union St. Gilloise was also incorrectly assessed. Celtic 3-2 Beşiktaş was another miss, despite the match containing five goals, and Hapoel Beer Sheva 0-2 OFI and Sturm Graz 2-3 Celje continued the difficult closing sequence.

Sunderland 0-2 Dinamo Zagreb produced a further miss before Torreense 3-2 Ararat-Armenia delivered the final correct 1X2 prediction. The overall 44% return was better than our 33% Over/Under rate and equal to our 44% BTTS rate. Across the 18 listed matches, the 1X2 record shows that we found several strong away-side outcomes, including Lillestrom 0-1 Plzen, Sparta Praha 1-3 Bournemouth and AZ Alkmaar 1-2 Juventus, but the draw, home-win and high-scoring selections were not consistently aligned with the results.

Europa League League Stage Round 4 Delivers Two Correct Predictions and Two Upsets

Torreense recorded a notable 3-2 victory over Ararat-Armenia, matching the supplied 1 prediction with a 57% probability. The narrow scoreline did not make the result straightforward, but the home side’s ability to secure the three points was reflected in the forecast. This was one of the two correct predictions from the round and ensured that the analysis captured a competitive match without overstating its margin.

Sturm Graz provided the first major surprise of the round, losing 3-2 to Celje despite a 1 prediction that carried a 64% probability. The result stood out because the forecast had identified Sturm Graz as the stronger selection, yet Celje produced the winning performance. It serves as a clear reminder that a high prediction probability does not guarantee the outcome, particularly when the predicted favorite is facing an opponent capable of producing a close and decisive contest.

Celtic also failed to deliver the expected result, as Beşiktaş won 3-2 in a match predicted to finish 2-1. The supplied 44% probability for that scoreline showed that it was the least confident of the four forecasts, but the incorrect prediction still helped define the round’s pattern of disruption. Celtic were considered the side most likely to take the points, only for Beşiktaş to overturn that expectation and leave the home team on the wrong side of a five-goal contest.

Benfica completed the round with the most emphatic winning margin, beating Lech Poznan 3-1. This result matched the supplied 1 prediction and carried an 84% probability, the strongest forecast percentage among the listed matches. Benfica’s controlled scoreline made the outcome appear more convincing than the one-goal defeats recorded elsewhere in the round. Overall, the results split evenly between correct and incorrect predictions: Torreense and Benfica were forecast to win and did so, while Celje and Beşiktaş overturned the anticipated outcomes against Sturm Graz and Celtic.

Unbeaten leaders sharpen the standings race

Round 4 left Bournemouth and Ferencvarosi TC joint at the top of the updated standings, with 12 points apiece after four wins from four matches. Neither side has recorded a defeat or a draw, making them the only teams to win every match played so far. Their shared lead creates the benchmark for the rest of the group, with Olympiakos Piraeus two points behind on 10 after three wins and one draw.

Benfica and Bayer Leverkusen occupy fourth and fifth place respectively, separated from Olympiakos Piraeus by a single point. Both have nine points from three wins, while Union St. Gilloise sits sixth with seven points after two wins and one draw. The standings are unusually compressed: five of the six teams are separated by only three points, yet every side remains unbeaten. With no team yet above the 12-point mark and no defeat among those listed, the table combines clear leaders with a tightly packed chase behind them.

Looking ahead, the next round offers every side a chance to alter this hierarchy. Bournemouth and Ferencvarosi TC must protect their perfect records and two-point advantage if they are to remain level at the summit. Olympiakos Piraeus can close the gap to two points with a victory, while Benfica and Bayer Leverkusen could also move within one point of third with three points. Union St. Gilloise has the largest distance to bridge, sitting five points behind the leaders, but another win would keep the standings open and further reward its unbeaten start.

Sources

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