BelgiumBelgium
Belgian CupBelgian Cup
Round Semi-finals

Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise Prediction & Betting Tips

4 Feb 2026
0-0
Full Time
Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi
Incorrect
Our #1 Pick
Asian Handicap
AH Away -0.25
@ 1.36
0 : 0
FT

Betting Tips

28%
27%
44%
CharleroiDrawUnion St. Gilloise
Match Result
Away Win
@ 1.92
47%
Both Teams to Score
No
@ 1.76
51%
Double Chance
Draw/Away
@ 1.29
37%
Asian Handicap
AH Away -0.25
@ 1.36
74%
Half Time
Draw
@ 1.92
45%
HT/FT
Draw/Away
@ 5.00
20.0%
Correct Score
0:1
@ 5.25
19.0%

Additional Markets

Total Corners
Under 9.5
@ 1.68
55.1%
Total Cards
Over 3.5
@ 1.62
56.7%
Anytime Goalscorer
Promise David
34.7%@ 2.88
Mohammed Fuseini
33.3%@ 3.00
Kevin Rodriguez
30.8%@ 3.25
Sekou Keita
29.4%@ 3.40
Youssef Hamoutahar
29.4%@ 3.40
Alexandre Stanic
27.8%@ 3.60
Odds updated hourly from bookmakers
Predictions recalculated every 2 hours
Locked 2 hours before kickoff

Expert Analysis

David Coleman
David Coleman Senior Football Analyst
75% 20+ yrs
6 min read

Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise: Belgian Cup Clash – In-Depth Preview & Betting Analysis The upcoming Belgian Cup fixture between Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise scheduled for Wednesday, February 4, 2026, at the Stade du Pays de Charleroi promises a...

Read Full Analysis

Key Statistics

Charleroi0
2Draws
10Union St. Gilloise
2.67Avg Goals
50%BTTS
58%Over 2.5
11 Feb 2026Union St. Gilloise4-1Charleroi
4 Feb 2026Charleroi0-0Union St. Gilloise
14 Dec 2025Charleroi1-1Union St. Gilloise
18 Oct 2025Union St. Gilloise3-1Charleroi
11 Jan 2025Charleroi1-2Union St. Gilloise
View all H2H matches

Betting Odds

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet2.403.201.50
188Bet3.603.252.02
1xBet3.463.122.18

Full Match Analysis

David Coleman
David Coleman
Senior Football Analyst
75% Accuracy
20+ Years Experience
5.5k Predictions

Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise: Belgian Cup Clash – In-Depth Preview & Betting Analysis

The upcoming Belgian Cup fixture between Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise scheduled for Wednesday, February 4, 2026, at the Stade du Pays de Charleroi promises a compelling contest. With both teams boasting contrasting recent form and tactical approaches, this match offers intriguing betting opportunities. Analyzing their performances, key players, head-to-head history, and market odds provides a comprehensive picture of what to expect in this midweek cup encounter.

Match Overview

This cup tie pits a Charleroi side currently enjoying a remarkable winning streak against a Union St. Gilloise team that has demonstrated resilience despite some recent setbacks. The match's significance extends beyond just progression in the Belgian Cup; it also serves as a barometer for both clubs' ambitions this season. Hosted at Charleroi's Stade du Pays de Charleroi, the fixture carries local pride and competitive importance, with both teams eager to advance further in this knockout phase.

Form Analysis

Charleroi: Momentum and Consistency

Charleroi enters this match with an impressive recent record, having won their last five matches across all competitions. Their form points to a team in good confidence, with a record of 6 wins, 3 draws, and just 1 loss over their last 10 games. Notably, they average 1.5 goals scored per game while conceding only 0.5, indicating a solid defensive foundation complemented by effective attacking play. Their ability to keep clean sheets in 60% of matches underscores their defensive resilience, which could be pivotal in a knockout setting.

Union St. Gilloise: Resilient but Slightly Inconsistent

Union St. Gilloise's recent form is slightly more mixed, with 5 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses in their last 10 matches. They have shown attacking potency, averaging 1.1 goals per game, and a commendable defensive record, conceding only 0.7 per match. Their recent form includes a mix of wins and losses, but they remain a team capable of scoring and defending well, with 60% clean sheet rate, indicating tactical discipline. Their last five matches show a team that is competitive, but perhaps not as in-form as Charleroi, especially considering their recent loss to the same opponent in league action.

Tactical Analysis

Charleroi: Defensive Solidity & Counter-Attack

Charleroi typically employs a 4-2-3-1 formation, emphasizing a solid defensive shape and quick transitions. Their approach likely involves compact defending, leveraging their disciplined backline, and exploiting set-pieces or counter-attacks to create scoring opportunities. Their recent goal-scoring average suggests a team that is pragmatic, prioritizing defensive stability while capitalizing on limited chances.

Union St. Gilloise: Possession & Creative Play

Union St. Gilloise operate with a 3-4-1-2 system, emphasizing possession, width, and creative buildup through midfield. Their style involves maintaining control and probing for openings, with key players tasked with unlocking defenses. The team’s formation allows for fluid attacking movements, and their high number of clean sheets indicates a disciplined defensive structure that can absorb pressure and launch swift counters when opportunities arise.

Key Players to Watch

  • Charleroi:
    • P. Guiagon: Top scorer with 7 goals and 2 assists, a primary goal threat and creative outlet.
    • A. Scheidler: Consistent scorer with 5 goals, capable of influencing attack plays.
    • Y. Titraoui: Quick winger, providing width and pace to stretch the opposition.
  • Union St. Gilloise:
    • P. David: Leading scorer with 9 goals, a clinical finisher and focal point in attack.
    • R. Florucz: Creative midfielder with 7 goals and 3 assists, key in linking play.
    • K. Rodríguez: Versatile forward with 7 goals, capable of scoring from various positions.

Injury Impact

Current injury reports are not detailed here, but assuming both squads are largely intact, tactical stability remains. Any key absences—particularly in defensive or creative roles—could sway the outcome. Charleroi’s defensive solidity could be threatened if key defenders are missing, while Union’s attacking potency hinges on their main goal scorers being fit and available.

Head-to-Head Analysis

Historically, Union St. Gilloise have dominated their encounters with Charleroi, winning 9 of their last 10 meetings, with only a single draw. The last five clashes indicate a clear trend of Union securing victories, with an average of 2.7 goals per game. Notably, Charleroi has yet to beat Union in their recent head-to-heads, with their only draw occurring in December 2025. This pattern suggests Union’s psychological edge and tactical superiority in recent times.

Betting Market Analysis

Odds Breakdown

  • Match Winner (1X2): Home (Charleroi) 2.15 (32.6%), Draw 2.9 (24.2%), Away (Union Gilloise) 1.62 (43.3%)
  • Double Chance: 1X 1.57 (63.7%), 12 1.36 (73.5%), X2 1.33 (75.2%)
  • Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Under 2.5 at 1.83 (54.8%), Over 2.5 at 2.00 (50%)
  • Both Teams to Score (BTTS): Yes at 2.00 (50%), No at 1.83 (54.8%)
  • Correct Score Predictions: 1:1 at 5.1, 5.25, 5.32, or 5.5

Implied Probabilities & Value

The odds imply a slightly higher chance for an away win (Union), with a 43.3% probability, versus Charleroi’s 32.6%. The draw is less favored at 24.2%. The relatively high odds for a draw and home win suggest potential value in the double chance markets, especially considering the recent head-to-head dominance by Union.

Over/Under markets favor under 2.5 goals marginally, reflecting both teams' defensive qualities and cautious approaches, especially in a cup knockout format where safety is paramount.

Our Predictions

Match Result: Union St. Gilloise to Win (47% confidence)

Based on recent head-to-head success, superior attacking and defensive metrics, and current form, Union Gilloise appears more likely to secure the victory. Their historical dominance and consistent goal-scoring ability support this forecast.

Total Goals: Under 2.5 (57% confidence)

The tendency for low-scoring matches, combined with the tactical discipline of both sides, suggests a cautious approach. The under 2.5 goals market offers value, considering the defensive records and recent goal averages.

Both Teams to Score: No (51% confidence)

Given the defensive solidity—Charleroi with a 60% clean sheet rate and Union with 60% clean sheets—the likelihood of both teams scoring is marginally less. The risk remains, but the trend favors a match where at least one team keeps a clean sheet.

Double Chance: X2 (37% confidence)

While Union is favored outright, the double chance X2 provides a safer alternative, especially considering cup unpredictability and Charleroi’s home advantage. This bet balances risk and reward effectively.

Best Bets Summary

  • Union Gilloise to Win (Odds: 1.62) — Based on recent dominance and form, Union is the favorite, and betting on their victory offers good value given their 43.3% implied probability.
  • Under 2.5 Goals (Odds: 1.83) — Both teams’ defensive strengths and low average goals support a cautious, low-scoring contest.
  • Double Chance X2 (Odds: 1.33) — Provides a safer hedge against possible home upset, especially in knockout football where surprises happen more often.

**Note:** As with all cup fixtures, unpredictability is inherent. Factors such as tactical shifts, late injuries, or red cards could influence the outcome. The midweek timing might also impact player freshness and match intensity.

Conclusion

This match between Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise offers a fascinating blend of recent form, head-to-head trends, and tactical nuances. Union’s historical edge and attacking prowess make them slight favorites, but Charleroi’s defensive resilience and home advantage keep the contest open. Our analysis suggests a cautious, low-scoring game with Union likely to secure the win, supporting the recommended bets on Union to win and under 2.5 goals. Bettors should weigh the double chance market as a risk-mitigation option given the unpredictable nature of knockout cup fixtures.

Additional Information

CharleroiCharleroi

Top Scorers

P. Guiagon
P. GuiagonMidfielder
7Goals
A. Scheidler
A. ScheidlerAttacker
5Goals
Y. Titraoui
Y. TitraouiMidfielder
4Goals
P. Pflücke
P. PflückeAttacker
3Goals
A. Bernier
A. BernierAttacker
3Goals

Top Assists

P. Pflücke
P. PflückeAttacker
5Assists
P. Guiagon
P. GuiagonMidfielder
2Assists
A. Scheidler
A. ScheidlerAttacker
2Assists
E. Camara
E. CamaraMidfielder
2Assists
J. Romsaas
J. RomsaasMidfielder
2Assists

Cards

E. Camara
E. CamaraMidfielder
70
A. Ousou
A. OusouDefender
61
Y. Titraoui
Y. TitraouiMidfielder
60
A. Bernier
A. BernierAttacker
50
L. Blum
L. BlumDefender
40
Union St. GilloiseUnion St. Gilloise

Top Scorers

P. David
P. DavidAttacker
9Goals
R. Florucz
R. FloruczAttacker
7Goals
K. Rodríguez
K. RodríguezAttacker
7Goals
M. Giger
M. GigerAttacker
3Goals
A. Zorgane
A. ZorganeMidfielder
2Goals

Top Assists

R. Florucz
R. FloruczAttacker
3Assists
A. Zorgane
A. ZorganeMidfielder
3Assists
O. Niang
O. NiangMidfielder
3Assists
R. Schoofs
R. SchoofsMidfielder
3Assists
C. Burgess
C. BurgessDefender
3Assists

Cards

R. Sykes
R. SykesDefender
60
C. Burgess
C. BurgessDefender
60
O. Niang
O. NiangMidfielder
50
A. Khalaili
A. KhalailiAttacker
50
K. Mac Allister
K. Mac AllisterDefender
50

Detailed Form & Recent Matches

Charleroi
DLLLL
10Played
3Wins
2Draws
5Losses
Points/Game1.1
Win %30%
Goals/Game3.3
Scored Avg1.6
Conceded Avg1.7
BTTS60%
Clean Sheets40%
Failed to Score10%

Recent Matches

7 MarDat Dender2-2
1 MarLvs Club Brugge KV1-2
22 FebLat KVC Westerlo1-2
14 FebLvs Gent2-3
11 FebLat Union St. Gilloise1-4
Union St. Gilloise
WDWDW
10Played
6Wins
4Draws
0Losses
Points/Game2.2
Win %60%
Goals/Game1.8
Scored Avg1.3
Conceded Avg0.5
BTTS50%
Clean Sheets50%
Failed to Score30%

Recent Matches

7 MarWvs Genk2-1
1 MarDat KVC Westerlo0-0
21 FebWvs Antwerp2-1
14 FebDat Standard Liege1-1
11 FebWvs Charleroi4-1

Head to Head History

Betting Statistics

MetricValue
Total Matches12
Average Goals2.67
BTTS50%
Over 2.5 Goals58%
Over 1.5 Goals67%

Goals by Team

TeamTotalAverage
Charleroi60.5 per game
Union St. Gilloise262.17 per game

Clean Sheets

TeamClean Sheets
Charleroi1 (8%)
Union St. Gilloise6 (50%)
11 Feb 2026Belgian CupUnion St. Gilloise4-1Charleroi
4 Feb 2026Belgian CupCharleroi0-0Union St. Gilloise
14 Dec 2025Pro LeagueCharleroi1-1Union St. Gilloise
18 Oct 2025Pro LeagueUnion St. Gilloise3-1Charleroi
11 Jan 2025Pro LeagueCharleroi1-2Union St. Gilloise
16 Aug 2024Pro LeagueUnion St. Gilloise1-0Charleroi
10 Dec 2023Pro LeagueCharleroi1-3Union St. Gilloise
1 Oct 2023Pro LeagueUnion St. Gilloise3-1Charleroi
28 Jan 2023Pro LeagueCharleroi0-1Union St. Gilloise
29 Jul 2022Pro LeagueUnion St. Gilloise1-0Charleroi
19 Feb 2022Pro LeagueCharleroi0-3Union St. Gilloise
6 Nov 2021Pro LeagueUnion St. Gilloise4-0Charleroi