A Mixed Day for Football Predictions

Yesterday’s predictions produced a broadly balanced return across 57 fixtures. The 1X2 selections led the way with 30 correct outcomes, representing a 53% accuracy rate. This suggests the match-result predictions delivered a slight edge over the other two markets without reaching a commanding level of success.

Over/Under selections were the least successful category, finishing 28 out of 57 at 49%, while BTTS predictions recorded 29 correct calls for a 51% rate. Together, the three markets delivered a selection of winners and misses that created a notably competitive review. With totals hovering around the halfway mark, the figures highlight the difficulty of forecasting football consistently and provide a clear snapshot of yesterday’s prediction performance.

Prediction Accuracy: A Mixed Return Across 57 Matches

Across 57 matches, the Our Pick selections produced a 1X2 record of 30 correct predictions, or 53%. This means the highest-confidence selections landed slightly more often than not, although a 53% strike rate leaves a meaningful margin for improvement. The Over/Under market delivered 28 correct calls, or 49%, while BTTS returned 29 correct predictions, or 51%. Both goal-related categories were therefore close to an even 50-50 split.

The clearest conclusion is that confidence and accuracy were not perfectly aligned. Selecting one outcome as the strongest play did not automatically translate into a strong winning record, while the Over/Under and BTTS markets produced nearly identical returns despite requiring different forms of goal prediction. The 49% Over/Under rate fell below the 1X2 figure, and the 51% BTTS rate was only marginally better.

Overall, the figures indicate a broadly balanced prediction record: successful in a slight majority of 1X2 and BTTS decisions, but below the 50% benchmark for Over/Under. Future improvement should focus on identifying which matches offer the strongest reasons for trusting the selected outcome, rather than treating every confidence rating as equally reliable. Based strictly on the recorded Our Pick results, accuracy ranged from 49% to 53% across the three markets.

Our Best Prediction Calls

Our strongest calls came across UEFA Europa League League Stage - 4 and UEFA Conference League League Stage - 3. We correctly backed Bournemouth to beat Sparta Praha 1-3 at 67%, NEC Nijmegen to defeat Omonia Nicosia 3-1 at 55%, and Benfica to overcome Lech Poznan 3-1 with the highest confidence of the group at 84%. The Benfica selection was especially decisive: a high-confidence forecast was paired with a two-goal winning margin.

Two results also rewarded selections made at more demanding odds. Celtic’s 3-2 win over Beşiktaş confirmed our Away Win call at 44%, while FC Thun’s 3-1 victory against Heart Of Midlothian produced a correct Home Win prediction, also at 44%, in the UEFA Conference League League Stage - 3. Both calls landed with two-goal margins, adding useful support to predictions that carried less than an even chance of success.

What stands out is the range of the successful picks. The set included confident favourites, moderately backed sides and two selections priced at 44%, while covering separate competitive UEFA competitions. Across all five fixtures, the predicted winner was right and the exact results produced clear margins: 3-1, 3-1, 3-1, 3-2 and 3-1. This mix makes the run especially effective because the accuracy was not limited to one forecast level.

Our Biggest Prediction Misses

Our clearest failures came in UEFA Europa League, League Stage - 4 fixtures, where we repeatedly selected home wins without sufficient justification. Crystal Palace’s 1-1 draw with 1899 Hoffenheim overturned a 52% home-win prediction, while AC Milan’s 0-2 defeat to Ferencvarosi TC rendered our 72% call wrong. Bayer Leverkusen’s 0-1 loss to Marseille failed a 73% home-win prediction, and Sunderland’s 0-2 defeat to Dinamo Zagreb overturned a 67% call. Across all four competitive tournament matches, the result moved against our selection, showing a consistent failure to account for the possibility that the favored team might not perform to the level implied by our percentages.

The most severe miss was Atalanta’s 1-1 draw with Kairat Almaty in UEFA Conference League, League Stage - 3. We assigned an 85% probability to an Atalanta win, making this our strongest prediction among the group, yet the draw produced the wrong outcome. An 85% home-win probability left little room for uncertainty, so the result reflects major overconfidence rather than merely an unlucky split of the likely outcomes. The same issue affected several Europa League selections, particularly the 73% call for Bayer Leverkusen and the 72% call for AC Milan.

The underlying problem was that our forecasts were too heavily concentrated on home wins and did not sufficiently distinguish between a side being the more likely winner and that side controlling the match. A strong probability estimate can still coexist with uncertainty over the exact score, but our predictions were expressed as confident home-win selections rather than outcomes with meaningful draw and underdog possibilities. To improve, we need greater caution at high confidence levels, stronger checks for how credible a home win really is, and less willingness to treat estimated favoritism as near-certainty.

Results Roundup by League

UEFA Europa League – League Stage 4: Levski Sofia secured a 1-0 victory over Jagiellonia, while Anderlecht recorded a 2-0 win against Red Bull Salzburg. Both 1X2 predictions were correct. Bournemouth also backed up the successful selections with a 3-1 victory over Sparta Praha, bringing the competition round to three correct calls from four matches. Crystal Palace’s 1-1 draw with 1899 Hoffenheim was the only miss.

UEFA Conference League – League Stage 3: FC Thun produced the only correct 1X2 selection, defeating Heart Of Midlothian 3-1. The remaining three predictions failed to land. SC Freiburg won 1-0 against Trabzonspor, Atalanta drew 1-1 with Kairat Almaty, and Aarhus shared a goalless 0-0 with SC Braga. The Conference League results therefore delivered one successful pick from four competitive tournament fixtures.

Domestic Leagues: The Liga Profesional roundup brought a correct selection as River Plate beat Aldosivi 2-0. In the Persian Gulf Pro League, Shams Azar Qazvin lost 1-0 to Sanat Naft, although the original 1X2 prediction was incorrect. Primera Division winners included Firpo, who beat Alianza 2-0. Serie A produced one correct pick and one miss: Botafogo defeated Atletico-MG 1-0, whereas Sao Paulo and Corinthians finished their meeting 0-0.

Conclusion: A consistent return from the 1X2 picks

Yesterday’s Results covered 57 matches on Thursday, 5 Nov 2026, with the 1X2 predictions achieving an accuracy rate of 53%. That outcome confirms the value of disciplined selection across a busy schedule, even though it did not produce a perfect record.

The review shows how accurate forecasting can remain effective on a mixed slate when the shortlist is managed with care. With more than half of the picks landing correctly, the 53% success rate provides a solid basis for evaluating the approach and refining future selections.