One Point Apart, Two Contenders, One Major Night
A single point separates the contenders as Ludogorets and CSKA Sofia prepare for another charged Bulgarian First League encounter. The visitors occupy second place with 27 points, unbeaten through eight wins and three draws, while Ludogorets sit third on 26 points after eight victories and two draws. With both sides yet to lose, the standings turn this meeting into more than another fixture: it is a chance for one to seize the advantage and for the other to protect a remarkable start.
Top match is the defining confrontation in this Bulgarian football context, bringing together two clubs with recent titles of their own and contrasting approaches to the same objective. Ludogorets have arrived with four wins and a draw in their last five matches, scoring 13 goals and conceding only three. CSKA Sofia’s form is less conclusive, with two wins, two draws and one defeat in five, but their 27-point total already reflects greater consistency. The tension comes from how evenly matched their league records have been, leaving virtually no margin for error in the standings.
Recent history strongly favours Ludogorets. Of the 32 competitive meetings covered by the data, they won 13, CSKA Sofia won seven and 12 ended in draws, with Ludogorets also leading the scoring aggregate 38-24. Their longest winning run in that period reached four matches, while an unbeaten sequence stretched to 12; CSKA Sofia’s corresponding figures were a maximum streak of two wins and eight matches without defeat. The clearest victories were emphatic: Ludogorets won 5-0 in 2022, while CSKA Sofia’s largest win was 4-1 in 2021. More often, though, the margins have been narrow: 1-0 occurred seven times, 0-0 six times, and only 38% of these matches produced more than 2.5 goals.
Home records add another layer to the build-up. Ludogorets have won 11 of 17 home matches, drawn three and lost three, scoring 27 goals and conceding nine. CSKA Sofia are notoriously difficult to beat on their own ground, where they have won four of 15 and drawn nine, with only two defeats. Their ability to control those encounters could matter greatly here, although Ludogorets’ recent scoring rate and defensive solidity suggest an equally competitive contest. Current Ludogorets forward K. Duah has four goals in the recent head-to-head sample, reinforcing the danger he carries for CSKA. With the next meeting listed for 26 October 2026, one point and a place in the standings promise to sharpen every duel, every chance and every decisive moment.
Recent History: How the Top Match Balance Shifted
From CSKA Sofia’s early edge to Ludogorets’ sustained run
The recent competitive history of the Top match is defined by a decisive change in momentum. Across 32 meetings, Ludogorets have won 13, CSKA Sofia seven, with 12 draws. Ludogorets have also outscored their rivals 38-24. These figures represent the last decade or so of meetings rather than the rivalry’s complete history, but they show a clear shift: Ludogorets moved from being regularly held to 2-1,2-2 and 2-2,2-2 wins to becoming the side that repeatedly dictated the direction of this fixture.
The earliest phase in the supplied season-by-season picture belonged to CSKA Sofia. Ludogorets won once in 2017, while CSKA Sofia took the only victory of 2018, with three draws and one win apiece. The following season produced three stalemates without a winner. CSKA Sofia then regained the upper hand in 2020, winning twice, but the balance changed sharply from 2021 onwards. Ludogorets won twice that season, maintained a 2-1 advantage with one draw in 2022, and then swept all three listed meetings in 2023. Their advantage continued in 2024, when they won twice and drew once.
The Ludogorets era and CSKA Sofia’s renewed challenge
That run explains why Ludogorets’ overall unbeaten streak reached 12 matches, compared with a best unbeaten sequence of eight for CSKA Sofia. Ludogorets’ longest winning run was four, while CSKA Sofia’s was two. The scale of Ludogorets’ 2022-23 dominance is captured by their 5-0 victory on 30 April 2022, the biggest win in the recent H2H data and the highest-scoring meeting of the period. Their largest defeat in the same timeframe was a 4-1 loss to CSKA Sofia in May 2021, showing that the advantage was never entirely secure.
CSKA Sofia’s response has made the latest meetings more tense. In 2025, the teams split two wins each with two draws, preventing either side from creating another decisive run. The ten most recent listed meetings further underline the growing equilibrium: Ludogorets won five, CSKA Sofia three and two matches were drawn. Ludogorets still hold the numerical edge, but CSKA Sofia’s victories include a 2-1 away success and a 1-0 home win. Ludogorets have also remained dangerous at home, winning five of the last seven listed meetings there, including the 3-0 and 3-1 victories that form part of a four-match winning streak in their current form.
A tight contest shaped by low scorelines
The underlying numbers point toward a close matchup rather than a routinely high-scoring duel. A 1-0 result occurred seven times and a goalless draw six, while both teams scored in only 38% of meetings. Exactly the same proportion contained more than 2.5 goals. With 62 total goals in 32 games, the average stands at 1.9 per match. The competitive tension therefore frequently comes from narrow margins, defensive resistance and the pursuit of a decisive breakthrough.
Goal timing adds another layer to the matchday narrative. There were 14 goals between 76 and 90 minutes, more than in any other 15-minute interval. Ludogorets have scored particularly frequently at Ludogorets Stadium, where they have won 11 of 17 home meetings and scored 27 goals. CSKA Sofia’s home record is less dominant, with four wins, nine draws and two defeats in 15 games. A late goal can therefore overturn a carefully balanced contest, while the frequency of 1-0 and 0-0 results suggests neither side can assume that an open match is inevitable.
Names attached to the shifting balance
Current Ludogorets forward K. Duah is the leading scorer in the recent H2H data with four goals, while current midfielder B. Tekpetey has two. Former Ludogorets attacker Thiago contributed three goals during his spell, making him another prominent figure in the club’s productive 2022-23 period. CSKA Sofia’s listed leading scorers, Ali Sowe, K. Despodov and J. Mattheij, each have two, so the visitors’ attacking contributions have been distributed more evenly.
The wider context heightens the pressure on the next meeting. CSKA Sofia sit second on 27 points, one ahead of third-placed Ludogorets on 26, with both unbeaten in the standings shown. Ludogorets enter with four wins and a draw, while CSKA Sofia have two wins, two draws and a defeat. Recent history belongs marginally to Ludogorets, but the latest pattern is more balanced. The Top match now carries the tension of a close race, a rivalry shaped by repeated draws and narrow scorelines, and two teams whose contrasting home strengths promise another demanding contest.
Iconic Moments in the Top Match
Ludogorets 5-0 CSKA Sofia — 30 April 2022
The 5-0 victory is the defining result in the recent history of this Top match, combining the largest winning margin with the highest number of goals in a listed fixture. Ludogorets produced the most emphatic display by the two sides, turning the meeting into a statement of superiority. The result remains the benchmark for CSKA Sofia to overcome and the standard by which subsequent victories for either team are judged. For Ludogorets, it was a rare occasion on which the contest became completely one-sided.
CSKA Sofia 4-1 Ludogorets — 12 May 2021
CSKA Sofia’s 4-1 win stands as the club’s largest victory in the recent history of the rivalry. It offers a sharp contrast to Ludogorets’ 5-0 success, demonstrating how quickly the balance can shift when the Sofia side produces a four-goal haul at home. The match established the only major response to Ludogorets’ record margin in the data and remains a high point for CSKA Sofia. Any future meeting between the teams can be measured against this decisive home performance.
Ludogorets 3-0 CSKA Sofia — 14 March 2026
The 3-0 result gave Ludogorets a commanding recent victory and reinforced their habit of producing convincing wins at home. With three goals and a clean sheet, it was one of the clearest results in the modern-era sample. The margin also places the match among the more notable entries alongside Ludogorets’ 3-1 win in 2024. CSKA Sofia were unable to alter the pattern of Ludogorets controlling the fixture, leaving another significant performance for the approaching Top match to challenge.
Ludogorets 3-1 CSKA Sofia — 11 May 2024
Ludogorets’ 3-1 victory was an important home success that continued the club’s record of delivering substantial wins over CSKA Sofia. Two more goals than their opponents represented a comfortable margin, while the four-goal contest also added entertainment to the recent rivalry. Together with the 3-0 result from March 2026, it shows that Ludogorets have repeatedly turned home fixtures into opportunities to establish separation. The match remains part of the increasingly compelling recent narrative between the two sides.
Ludogorets 1-0 CSKA Sofia — 25 May 2026
The 1-0 result supplied the latest chapter in a closely fought recent sequence. Ludogorets followed a goalless draw and a narrow defeat in the preceding meetings listed for 2026, then returned to winning form at home. CSKA Sofia had also won 1-0 only three weeks earlier, so the score itself reflected the tightness of this period. Ludogorets’ success was more significant for the context than the margin, extending their recent advantage and setting up another compelling meeting with the Top match still finely balanced.
Key players: current fire and historical weight
The next Top match carries the pressure of a rivalry shaped by fine margins and decisive individual contributions. Two current Ludogorets players feature prominently among the leading scorers in recent competitive meetings, giving the home side an immediate attacking edge. Across both teams, though, the historical names reveal how much quality has previously defined this fixture—and how difficult it will be for either set of supporters to treat the latest encounter as anything other than a major occasion.
Ludogorets: Duah leads the current attacking threat
K. Duah is the clear active threat for Ludogorets, with four goals among the recorded leading totals for the Top match. His contribution places him above every other listed player and gives the home team a proven source of goals in this rivalry. Ludogorets will need his ability to convert meaningful chances while also creating space for their supporting attackers.
Another current member of the attacking picture is B. Tekpetey, whose two goals make him part of the leading group despite standing behind Duah. The pairing of the leading scorer and another active contributor offers Ludogorets flexibility, particularly when CSKA Sofia look to control midfield possession and force the home side to attack in transition.
CSKA Sofia: seeking to revive a productive scoring history
CSKA Sofia’s leading scorers in the supplied recent history are now former attacking figures rather than confirmed current squad members. Ali Sowe and K. Despodov each recorded two goals, while J. Mattheij also appears on two goals. Their past production illustrates the standard required from CSKA’s present attacking contingent, but it cannot be treated as evidence that any of them remains an available threat.
That distinction matters in a derby. Past success can show how CSKA have previously punished shortcomings, yet the visitors need new contributions to match the intensity and risk-taking demanded by a competitive meeting against Ludogorets. Historical names provide the benchmark; the next goals must come from those on the field now.
Ludogorets: Thiago set the recent scoring benchmark
Among Ludogorets’ historical contributors, Thiago stands out with three goals, the second-highest total in the leading-scorer list. His output during his spell serves as a reminder of the attacking quality this fixture can attract and the pressure placed on Ludogorets’ forwards whenever the home side targets a major occasion.
D. Yankov and M. Tissera each recorded two goals during their respective periods with Ludogorets. Together with Thiago and the active duo of Duah and Tekpetey, those figures form a layered scoring history combining former influence with present danger.
CSKA Sofia: former scorers underline the visitor’s pedigree
CSKA’s historical scoring record in this Top match is built around the two-goal contributions of Sowe, Despodov and Mattheij. None can be presented as a current option, but their records still frame the rivalry’s demanding character: CSKA have previously possessed players capable of producing decisive returns, and any current failure to replicate that attacking impact could leave the visitors without a route to victory.
For matchday, the contrast is compelling. Ludogorets can point to two active scorers on the leading list, led by Duah’s four goals, while CSKA must turn a rich recent history into momentum for the present squad. The weight of former achievements adds drama, but it is Duah, Tekpetey and their teammates who can shape the next chapter.
Current Form and Season Context
Ludogorets approach the next Top match with the stronger momentum. Their five-match run of four wins, a draw and no defeats has produced 13 goals for only three against, a scoring balance that reflects both control and defensive security. The contrast with CSKA Sofia is clear: the Sofia side’s recent sequence of two wins, two draws and one defeat has yielded nine goals and seven conceded. Ludogorets have therefore been more productive and significantly harder to break down during this latest spell, even though both clubs remain in the title and championship race.
The standings make this a particularly tense meeting. CSKA Sofia are second with 27 points from 11 games, one point ahead of Ludogorets, who have taken 26 points from 10. Both have won eight matches and, crucially, remain unbeaten. CSKA have drawn three times compared with Ludogorets’ two, but the hosts’ heavier scoring contribution and cleaner recent defensive record suggest that their one-point disadvantage does not capture the full competitive picture. Ludogorets’ trajectory is upward: their sequence of four straight victories before the latest draw demonstrates an ability to convert strong form into points quickly. CSKA’s unbeaten campaign is similarly impressive, although the increased goal concessions in their recent run give Ludogorets a more persuasive statistical case.
The wider recent derby record also favours Ludogorets. Across the five listed seasons from 2021 to 2025, they won 11 encounters, compared with three for CSKA Sofia, with five draws completing a tightly contested but largely Ludogorets-dominated set of meetings. Monday’s rematch at 17:30 GMT in London time therefore carries added narrative weight: Ludogorets can continue their strong run and go top, while CSKA need to protect their position and answer questions about their more porous recent form. Stefano Sensi is likely to be unavailable for CSKA because of his previous-match suspension, reducing the Sofia side’s squad options. Bet365 price CSKA Sofia at 2.38, the draw at 3.3 and Ludogorets at 2.9, with the market pricing the home side as the slight favourite despite Ludogorets’ superior recent scoring and defensive numbers.
Prediction and Betting Analysis: Ludogorets vs CSKA Sofia
1X2 Probabilities and Market Signals
Across 32 recent meetings, Ludogorets won 13, CSKA Sofia won seven and 12 ended in a draw. Those figures produce raw 1X2 probabilities of approximately 41% for a Ludogorets victory, 38% for a draw and 22% for a CSKA Sofia win. The rivalry has therefore leaned toward the Razdan side in recent history, although the draw has consistently remained a major part of the equation.
Bet365’s prices for Monday’s 17:30 GMT kickoff point in a notably different direction: CSKA Sofia are priced at 2.38, the draw at 3.3 and Ludogorets at 2.9. After allowing for the bookmaker’s margin, those odds imply roughly 39% for CSKA Sofia, 28% for the draw and 32% for Ludogorets. The market’s preference for CSKA Sofia contrasts sharply with the head-to-head numbers, reflecting the strength of the home side’s current position and form rather than the historical dominance of Ludogorets.
CSKA Sofia sit second in the Championship Group with 27 points from 11 matches and arrive with a WDWWD sequence. Ludogorets are third on 26 points from 10 games after a WWWDD run, meaning that neither side can treat this as a comfortable passage. The standings and form make the market’s CSKA Sofia favourite defensible, but the historical record leaves Ludogorets well placed to resist. A narrow home win remains the most defensible headline prediction, with CSKA Sofia’s recent momentum making them dangerous at the top end of the market assessment.
Goals, BTTS and the Shape of the Match
Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score have each occurred in 38% of recent matches. Those are moderate rather than explosive rates, and the average of 1.9 goals per meeting supports a controlled, low-scoring contest as the central scenario. The recent sample reinforces that reading: five of the last ten listed meetings produced two goals or fewer, including three 1-0 results and two goalless draws.
The most common scorelines are 1-0 and 0-0, appearing seven and six times respectively. A 0-1 home win for CSKA Sofia has occurred three times, while 1-2, 2-2 and 1-1 have each appeared three times. Although those outcomes are not evenly distributed, the range shows that this fixture can move between tight home victories, stalemates and higher-scoring exchanges when an early breakthrough changes its character.
Goal timing also favours caution. Twelve goals were scored between minutes 16 and 30, the quietest 15-minute interval, while the opening 15 minutes produced 12 and the final quarter of the match produced 14. Ludogorets’ 1-0 win in the most recent listed meeting illustrates the value of protecting the score late, whereas CSKA Sofia’s 1-2 victory shows how the same match can open rapidly once a goal arrives.
Matchday Factors and Final Forecast
CSKA Sofia have had four days’ rest and have played twice in the last ten days; Ludogorets have had nine days and played once. The difference is not significant enough to outweigh CSKA Sofia’s stronger recent run. Their principal availability concern is Stefano Sensi, who was sent off in the previous competition match and is likely to be suspended. That reduces midfield flexibility without removing the attacking threat established by their recent form.
With kickoff at 17:30 GMT on Monday, 26 October 2026, the evidence points toward a close match with CSKA Sofia marginally favoured by the market and Ludogorets better supported by the historical numbers. The prediction is a 1-0 CSKA Sofia victory, with the draw a serious alternative. Both teams to score looks less compelling than the 1-0 or 0-0 scorelines, while under 2.5 goals aligns more closely with the 38% over rate, the 1.9-goal average and the repeated appearance of low-scoring results. Bet365’s 2.38 price for CSKA Sofia, 3.3 for the draw and 2.9 for Ludogorets frames the market tension: present momentum favours CSKA Sofia, but recent head-to-head history keeps Ludogorets firmly in contention.
Venue Analysis: Where the Advantage Lies
Ludogorets have made their home ground one of the strongest venues in the Top match. Across 17 competitive home meetings in recent history, they have won 11, drawn three and lost only three. Their goals for and against, 27 and nine, underline the balance of those results: Ludogorets have not simply accumulated points, but have generally controlled the matchday environment. A home win rate of almost 65 per cent demonstrates a significant advantage, particularly when compared with the frequency of CSKA Sofia’s defeats on the road.
CSKA Sofia’s own home record is more stubborn than dominant. In 15 home matches, they have won four, drawn nine and lost twice, meaning they have avoided defeat in almost 87 per cent of games in this venue. The 15 goals scored and 11 conceded suggest a tight, resilient contest in which CSKA Sofia are difficult to break down. Their nine draws also point to a side capable of frustrating opponents, turning close matches into stalemates and preserving momentum even when the attacking edge belongs to the visitor.
The away figures reveal just how dangerous Ludogorets can be when CSKA Sofia’s home advantage is removed. The reciprocal venue records show Ludogorets winning four away matches, drawing nine and losing only twice in 15 competitive games. By contrast, CSKA Sofia have won three times away in the corresponding 17 Ludogorets home fixtures, with three draws and 11 defeats. That makes Ludogorets the more threatening side on neutral-looking ground: they lose infrequently away, while CSKA Sofia’s recent away record includes a majority of losses. For the next meeting, venue could therefore intensify the tension rather than settle it—CSKA Sofia are formidable at home, but Ludogorets possess the stronger record on their travels.
Head-to-Head Trends and Betting Insights
Recent history points to a closely matched rivalry with a meaningful edge for Ludogorets. Across 32 competitive meetings, the Razvit team won 13 times, CSKA Sofia seven times and the remaining 12 ended in draws. Ludogorets’ longest winning run in this period reached four matches, while their longest unbeaten stretch extended to 12; CSKA Sofia’s corresponding figures were two wins and eight unbeaten encounters. The broader picture has been one of increasing separation recently: Ludogorets dominated the 2022, 2023 and 2024 seasons without conceding a victory, before both sides won twice in 2025. That shift reinforces the relevance of current standings, with CSKA Sofia marginally ahead on 27 points and Ludogorets immediately behind on 26, and both unbeaten in ten league matches.
The strongest historical betting signal is caution over the number of goals. Only 38% of these matches contained more than 2.5 goals, while 62% finished with one team scoring at most once. The scoreline 1-0 appeared seven times and 0-0 six times, meaning 13 of the 32 meetings produced either of those two outcomes. Goal timing also favours restraint: 14 goals were scored from the 76th to the 90th minute, the highest interval in the sample, while the opening 15 minutes produced 12. However, the scoring was not concentrated enough to make either side a dependable first-half bet. A late goal remains plausible, but the frequency of low-scoring fixtures makes a cautious approach to over-2.5 markets historically more defensible.
Venue history adds another important layer. Ludogorets won 11 of 17 home matches, drew three and lost three, with 27 goals scored and nine conceded. CSKA Sofia were much harder to beat at home, recording four wins, nine draws and only two defeats in 15 meetings; nine of those games were therefore drawn. Betting comparisons should reflect this contrast rather than treating the rivalry as uniform. At Ludogorets’ ground, the home side’s attacking record supports backing them to win or avoid defeat, while CSKA Sofia’s home fixtures have historically leaned towards draws and fewer goals. Current form strengthens the case for keeping Ludogorets prominent in pre-match selections: they arrive with four wins and a draw, scoring 13 goals and conceding only three. CSKA Sofia’s five-match run is less consistent, although their unbeaten league start limits the scope for an emphatic assessment.
Ludogorets vs CSKA Sofia: Frequently Asked Questions
Who has won more recent derbies?
Ludogorets have won more of the 32 derbies in the supplied recent sample, recording 13 victories compared with seven for CSKA Sofia. The remaining 12 matches were draws, meaning more than one-third of these meetings have ended without a winner. That pattern gives the next Top match a particular sense of tension: Ludogorets carry the stronger recent record, but CSKA Sofia have repeatedly kept the contest finely balanced.
What is the biggest win in the rivalry’s recent history?
The biggest Ludogorets victory in the supplied recent sample is a 5-0 win, while the biggest success for CSKA Sofia is a 4-1 victory. These are the most emphatic results recorded in the 32-match dataset, although they do not establish the rivalry’s all-time largest victories. They provide a benchmark for the margin either side could hope to match or surpass in the next meeting.
How many goals are scored in these derbies on average?
The matches have produced an average of 1.9 goals per game, with Ludogorets scoring 38 and CSKA Sofia scoring 24 across the 32 encounters. Both teams have also failed to score in 38% of games, while 38% of the fixtures have contained more than 2.5 goals. The modest scoring average suggests that many derbies have been close affairs, even if a breakthrough goal could quickly transform the next matchday.
Who is the leading scorer in the recent derby sample?
K. Duah is the leading scorer, with four goals. That contribution makes him the most prominent attacking name in the figures provided, though the overall record shows that goals have been shared across the two teams rather than concentrated around one prolific scorer. Any decisive contribution from him or another leading player could prove important as Ludogorets seek to preserve their advantage in the win column.
Does either side have a significant home advantage?
The supplied statistics do not include a home-and-away breakdown, so it is not possible to quantify a specific home advantage from this data. What can be said is that Ludogorets have won more meetings overall, with 13 victories to CSKA Sofia’s seven, while 12 draws show how frequently the teams have been separated by only a single point. The venue may therefore influence the atmosphere, but the numbers do not establish a clear home scoring or winning edge.
When is the next listed Top match?
The next fixture is listed as Array vs Array on 26 October 2026. The unusual team listing means no further venue, competition or match details can be confirmed from the information provided. As the next scheduled meeting approaches, the recent head-to-head picture still points to a contest with plenty at stake: Ludogorets possess the stronger win record, CSKA Sofia have a habit of drawing matches level, and the scoring patterns promise a close, tense occasion.